The Futures - No. 29

Humans living forever / The next Shale Revolution / AI reinforcing stereotypes

Oct 31, 2023

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about bioscience firms reversing aging, the US’ potential dominance in oil production, algorithms reinforcing stereotypes, and coffee badging as the new workplace trend.

Future signals to watch

Amazon is initiating a technology overhaul in its warehouses with AI and robotics, aiming to significantly accelerate inventory handling and reduce fulfillment time through its new system, Sequoia, over the next three to five years.
A recent study concludes that the already congested lower orbit of Earth, filled with tens of thousands of satellites, may soon become overpopulated, highlighting the necessity for strict space regulations.
Google is using data from its Maps app to recommend adjustments in traffic light timings for cities to reduce wait times and emissions, claiming to have already reduced stops for millions of drivers.
After a farming mishap, a Swedish woman received a state-of-the-art prosthetic hand capable of linking directly to her bones, muscles, and nerves, enabling AI to convert brain signals into precise motions.
The US Marines started testing a robot dog equipped with a rocket launcher, which could remotely target armored vehicles, particularly in urban settings.
Here's the tea: coffee badging is the newest workplace trend, where employees go to the office, grab a coffee, talk to colleagues, and then go home (having fulfilled their duty to "show up").
The French are really leading the charge against frequent flying; a survey shows that 41% favor limiting flights to four per lifetime 👀.
The Gen Zers are not about that mentorship networking; they want similar-aged friends who can grow professionally with them.

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💊 Are biologic drugs our fountain of youth?

In an era where longevity is a newfound aspiration, biologic drugs are emerging as a key player in extending human life. Early efforts are seen in medications like Metformin and Rapamycin, initially purposed for other ailments, but now are being considered for their potential lifespan-extending properties. These drugs work by moderating biological pathways, somewhat emulating the effects of calorie restriction without demanding a stringent lifestyle. Another area being explored is drugs that eliminate senescent cells, the aged cells our bodies no longer need but still linger, causing various malfunctions.

Size of the global chemical drugs and biologics pharmaceutical market (2014-2023)

However, these treatment pathways have many regulatory hurdles, as government health agencies have not yet recognized aging as a treatable condition. This limits the formal testing of these drugs on humans, making it a long-winded process to register trials.

Financial constraints are also an issue, especially as many of these drugs use out-of-patent molecules, which doesn't interest pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, the high costs associated with personalized biologic drugs, although they may decrease over time, initially present a barrier to accessibility. There are also fears of longevity becoming a luxury only the affluent can afford.

Yet, the real promise lies in the long-term effects of these biologic life-extending drugs one day becoming accessible to many, if not all. Extended working lives, evolving family structures, and a shift in generational dynamics are just the tip of the iceberg. The perspective that comes with a longer life could steer individuals towards a more future-oriented outlook, impacting everything from financial planning to environmental stewardship.

Actionable trend insights as biologic drugs extend human life

For entrepreneurs: They can explore the creation of platforms that connect researchers, practitioners, and the general populace interested in testing biologic drugs. For example, a platform that facilitates the ethical sharing of data, research findings, and even crowd-sourced funding for new research. Moreover, establishing virtual or in-person clinics specializing in longevity consultation and personalized health plans may become a growing healthcare niche.
For corporate innovators: Pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms can invest further in the development of AI-driven platforms that can simulate the effects of various biologics on human physiology, speeding up the discovery process. By the 2040s, companies may also need to consider the implications of workforce management and retirement planning. The traditional retirement model may shift, requiring new strategies for talent retention, multi-generational workforce management, and long-term financial planning services for employees.
For public sector innovators: Government agencies can proactively create regulatory frameworks that foster the ethical and safe advancement of biologic drugs for longevity. Public health agencies can also develop educational campaigns to raise awareness about the potential and risks of biologics. For instance, a government-initiated online portal could provide verified information, host expert discussions, and even offer a registry for approved clinical trials. New retirement/pension policies and older workforce reskilling programs may also be needed to adapt to future longevity breakthroughs.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

According to the State of AI Report 2023, OpenAI’s GPT-4 outperforms all other large language models (LLMs) in traditional benchmarks and human-centric exams.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a decrease in global growth from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and further to 2.9% in 2024, which is notably lower than the historical average of 3.8% from 2000 to 2019.
Rest of World studied 3,000+ AI images and discovered that algorithms reinforce bias and stereotypes. This development is dangerous due to the use of image generators in advertising, creative industries, and forensic sketching of crime suspects.
According to Deloitte’s 2024 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook, the influences from generative AI, industry convergence, embedded finance, open data, money digitization, decarbonization, digital identity, and fraud are projected to escalate in 2024.
The Climate Solutions Map demonstrates 220+ solutions to help organizations and governments achieve Net Zero across various essential sectors, including Transportation, Power, Food, and Finance.

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🛢️ Is the US’ Second Shale Revolution supporting the green transition?

Experts have differing views about the US Second Shale Revolution. Some consider it as the period between 2013 and 2017 when there was a substantial expansion of the American refining industry. This was triggered by the significant production of crude from shale, facilitated by new drilling techniques from the earlier shale revolution. This period saw a massive boost in distillation capacity, estimated at 6 to 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and its equivalent, enabling the transformation of crude into more usable forms.

Source: US Energy Information Administration

This shift contributed to reducing the US' carbon emissions as it lessened the nation’s dependency on coal, paving the way for a smoother green transition. Furthermore, natural gas as a backup energy source provided a cushion for intermittent renewable sources like wind and solar, thus promoting green energy discussions throughout the US. Additionally, the Second Shale Revolution spurred the production of intermediate products, like ethane from natural gas and naphtha from oil.

Other analysts consider the Second Shale Revolution an ongoing event that will extend until 2030. Energy giant ExxonMobil aims to surpass 1 million oil-equivalent bpd by 2024 in the US Permian Basin (the epicenter of this shale boom), marking an almost 80% increase from 2018 figures. Meanwhile, Chevron's vigorous Permian performance has nearly doubled its portfolio value over two years, projecting its unconventional net oil-equivalent production to hit 900,000 bpd by 2023.

Regardless of the differences in perspectives, the International Energy Agency (IEA) thinks the US will account for 70% of global oil production and 75% of LNG trade by 2024.

More importantly, while the rest of the world struggles with growing fuel prices, all this cheap, abundant shale energy, along with the US IRA program, is spurring multinationals to reinvest in US manufacturing facilities. The result? By 2030, the US will not only retake its long-lost position as the global leader in affordable manufactured goods, but it may also produce the greenest goods by manufacturing without excessive offshoring.

Actionable trend insights as the US becomes a major energy producer

For entrepreneurs: They can develop solutions that enhance the efficiency, safety, and environmental responsibility of shale extraction and processing operations. For instance, creating startups focused on innovative water recycling technologies to reduce the water footprint of hydraulic fracturing or developing drone or AI-based monitoring systems for real-time tracking of emissions and detection of leaks. Additionally, exploring ventures that transform byproducts from shale operations into valuable products, like converting flared (wasted) natural gas into liquid fuels or other chemicals, can open new markets while aligning with environmental sustainability.
For corporate innovators: Companies, especially those outside the energy sector, can explore partnerships with shale producers to utilize byproducts or shared technologies. For instance, a manufacturing firm might collaborate with shale producers to use excess natural gas for powering operations or ethane for chemical manufacturing. Moreover, mining corporations with strong data analytics capabilities can offer their expertise to shale companies to optimize drilling operations, manage supply chains, or predict equipment maintenance needs using predictive analytics.
For public sector innovators: Government agencies could spearhead initiatives to ensure that the shale boom aligns with broader societal goals, such as environmental sustainability and economic development. For example, establishing public-private partnerships to fund developing and deploying cleaner drilling technologies or wastewater management solutions. Additionally, they can create training programs in collaboration with industry and educational institutions to prepare the domestic workforce for emerging job opportunities within the shale sector.

Outside curiosities

Money launderers are leveling up in creativity, using Spotify to “stream” illegal money.
This AI-generated footage using Unreal Engine is so realistic you’ll question your ability to identify fact versus fiction.
New York’s subway system is so rat-infested that they created an app (NYC Subway Rat Detector) to encourage commuters to record sightings. (Is this why New York taxis are expensive?)
What do you do when you're stuck in the Eiffel Tower? Why, propose marriage, of course.