The Futures - No. 02

By Quantumrun

Apr 25, 2023

TLDR: In this issue

We cover how large language models (LLMs) are becoming more intelligent, how AI-generated music is sparking novel copyright violations, geopolitical foresight about Europe’s energy crisis, and the thorny issue of unretirement.

Full steam ahead toward the age of large language models (LLMs)

The LLMs powering ChatGPT and its competitors are evolving quickly, and while they are far from what some people are (ahem, mistakenly) calling an artificial general intelligence (AGI), they are giving the public an early glimpse of what life might look like with access to a truly superpowered personal assistant.

Credit: The film ‘Her’ / Warner Bros. Pictures

For example, Auto-GPT was released on March 30, an application that mimics some of an AGI’s theoretical functionality, i.e., the ability to understand the world like a human, as well as an equivalent capacity for learning and performing a wider range of tasks. Auto-GPT is an experimental, open-source Python program that uses GPT-4 for autonomous operations, which means that Auto-GPT can self-prompt to execute assigned tasks with minimal human involvement.

More AGI-infused codes are cropping up. BabyAGI by venture capitalist Yohei Nakajima is another Python script that leverages OpenAI and Pinecone application programming interface (API) along with the LangChain framework to generate, arrange, prioritize, and execute tasks. The mechanism involves creating a task using pre-established objectives from the results of a prior task. When a user provides an objective to the system, the code will consistently rank the tasks that must be accomplished to fulfill this objective. After completing these tasks, they will be saved in the system's memory.

Although still in the experimental stages, these LLM agents may boost productivity gains aided by declining AI hardware and software costs. Based on ARK's research, AI software might make as much as USD $14 trillion in revenue and contribute to a USD $90 trillion enterprise value by 2030. As GPT-4 and similar large models improve, many businesses are making their own smaller, business-specific models, which have lower costs.

Wider implications of increasingly autonomous LLMs may include:

An increased dependence on AI for communication, problem-solving, and decision-making. The influence of AI in shaping social norms and opinions could raise concerns about individual agency and the potential for manipulation by AI-driven narratives.
Significant improvements in productivity and cost savings for businesses. Automation can make many industries more efficient, but it could also make income inequality worse, as highly skilled workers and AI owners may reap more of the benefits.
LLMs being used to analyze political sentiment, develop policy recommendations, or even draft legislation. However, there is a risk of AI-generated content being used for misinformation campaigns or to manipulate public opinion.
Older people potentially enjoying AI-powered healthcare and companionship services, while younger workers could face new job challenges because of widespread automation.
Further advances in AI research and applications, leading to the creation of new technologies and industries. However, AI technologies also raise concerns about potential misuse, cybersecurity threats, and the need for adequate regulation and oversight.
Significant job displacement, particularly in industries that involve repetitive tasks or data analysis. While new job opportunities may become available, there may also be a need for extensive retraining and support for displaced workers to transition into new roles. Society will need to adapt to these changes, potentially rethinking education, social safety nets, and labor policies.

Future signals to watch

The electric vehicle (EV) transition is slowly driving down global fuel consumption, but we probably won’t see significant drops until 2030. Nearly one-third of new vehicles in China and one-quarter in Europe are presently plug-in hybrids.
AI-powered voice synthesis is sophisticated software that has become so good at mimicking human speech that it is becoming indistinguishable from the real thing. This development is generating novel cybersecurity threats.
For the first time, Spotify researchers have built a machine learning model that deciphers the complex mathematics of counterfactual analysis, a powerful method for identifying past event causes and predicting future outcomes. Your Sunday morning recommended playlist might just become more addictive than ever.
Want an Andy Warhol-inspired outfit? Maia, the chatbot, can whip it up in a few seconds. Sociate, an AI startup, has created a generative chatbot designed to enhance the overall shopping experience by responding to customers’ specifications and wants.
Humanlike robots are becoming the official mascots of the customer service industry. They are proving to be great coworkers, too.
The growth of AI is only as good as the infrastructure that supports it. Unfortunately, major cloud server providers like AWS and Google Cloud are running out of space.
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is rolling out pollution regulations that can push a significant shift to EVs by 2032.

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AI-generated music is redefining copyright violations

On April 14, 2023, the song Heart On My Sleeve was briefly accessible on platforms like Spotify and Apple Music before Universal Music Group (UMG) claimed copyright infringement and requested its removal. The track includes AI-generated vocals of Drake and The Weeknd exchanging verses about actress and singer Selena Gomez. The creator of the song, identified only as @ghostwriter, alleges to have used voice-trained software to produce the track.

UMG, which holds around a third of the worldwide music market, is growing increasingly apprehensive about AI systems using its tracks to generate music resembling that of well-known artists. The company stated in an email to AFP that training AI software without the consent of the artists raises the question of which side of history people want to be on: The side supporting artists, fans, and human creativity, or the side endorsing deep fakes, deception, and depriving artists of their rightful earnings. The company has requested that leading streaming platforms prevent AI companies from using music libraries to "train" their respective technologies.

The introduction of ChatGPT brought numerous unsettled copyright matters to the music industry's attention, prompting swift action. Over 40 organizations, including the Recording Academy, the National Music Publishers Association, and the Recording Industry of America, initiated the Human Artistry Campaign in March. This coalition aims to guarantee that AI technologies are developed and employed in ways that bolster human culture and artistry rather than supplanting or undermining it.

Wider implications of AI-generated music may include:

A fusion of human creativity and machine intelligence that could lead to a richer diversity of genres and styles, fostering cultural vibrancy and growth.
Music production no longer being the domain of just professionals. Aspiring musicians and amateurs alike can harness these technologies to create high-quality tunes, increasingly leveling the playing field and fostering a more inclusive musical landscape.
Innovative applications for social impact, such as personalized soundscapes for relaxation, therapy, or meditation. As these technologies advance, they could offer new avenues for fostering mental well-being and enhancing quality of life.
The financial landscape for the music industry undergoing significant transformation, from innovative subscription services to dynamic licensing agreements, presenting both challenges and opportunities for stakeholders.
An evolution of copyright laws and the establishment of new ethical frameworks for AI-generated content, shaping the future of the creative economy.

Trending research reports from the world wide web

Venture capital fund a16z’s 2023 State of Crypto Report discovered that an abundance of protocols and initiatives are enhancing the scalability of blockchains for a greater volume of transactions.
The industry of data management has become one of the most rapidly expanding sectors in infrastructure, with an estimated value exceeding USD $70 billion. Take a look at the World’s Top 50 Data Startups.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s 2023 Technology and Innovation Report emphasizes the potential that green innovation presents for developing nations to stimulate economic expansion and boost technological capabilities.
The International Monetary Fund’s Global Financial Stability Report discusses how risks to financial stability have escalated quickly, as the global financial system's resilience is challenged by rising inflation and the potential for fragmentation.

The tale of two retirements

Approximately one in six retired Americans are contemplating rejoining the workforce, as indicated by a February 2023 Paychex study. Those considering "unretirement" have typically been out of work for four years on average. The primary motives for reemployment among the surveyed individuals included "personal reasons" (57 percent), "needing more money" (53 percent), and "getting bored" (52 percent). Additionally, "feeling lonely" (45 percent) and "inflation" (45 percent) were among the top five reasons for considering a return to work.

In 2021, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 25.8 percent of adults aged 65 to 74 participated in the labor force. This percentage is projected to increase to 30.7 percent by 2031. For those aged 75 and older, workforce involvement is anticipated to rise from 8.6 percent in 2021 to 11.1 percent by 2031. While some of these rejoining employees chose to do it voluntarily, many are forced due to financial constraints.

However, in Europe, unretirement or delayed retirement is becoming a political minefield. While the French have been wreaking havoc all over Paris due to the proposal to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, the UK government can’t get early retirees to come back to work. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the UK has experienced a significant increase in working-age individuals who are no longer participating in the labor market. This trend has raised concerns for both the government and the Bank of England.

These retirement trends are a product of rising economic instability, outdated pension policies, and a slowing global birth rate. Developed economies, in particular, are running out of workers (and pensions) and government interventions have been mostly ineffective. The solutions to these concerns are complex, but in the meantime, retirement may become the next impossible dream.

Wider implications of unretirement or delayed retirement may include:

Increased intergenerational interaction in the workplace, with experienced older workers sharing their knowledge and expertise with younger employees. This development can promote the exchange of ideas and foster greater understanding between generations, while also challenging age-related stereotypes.
Increased consumer spending by older individuals, who may have more disposable income as they continue working. However, it may also increase income inequality if higher-earning older workers remain in the labor force longer, exacerbating the wealth gap between older and younger generations.
The growing number of unretired or later-retiring individuals influencing political priorities and policies. As this demographic becomes more active, there may be increased demand for policies that address the needs of older workers, such as improved access to lifelong learning opportunities, flexible work arrangements, and changes to retirement and pension systems.
A greater emphasis on developing technologies that facilitate continued employment, such as age-friendly workplace design, assistive devices, and digital tools that support lifelong skill development.
Older workers reducing labor shortages and contributing to overall productivity. However, this may create increased competition for jobs, particularly for younger workers who are entering the job market or looking to advance in their careers, potentially leading to higher youth unemployment rates.

Outside curiosities

Are major retailers having second thoughts on the metaverse? Just 6 months after building its advertising game (advergame) Universe of Play on Roblox, Walmart apparently has shut it down.
Touted as the anti-social media, Be Real’s popularity appears to be in its flop era. It seems Millennials and Gen Zers are not as keen to “be real.”
Computer magazines are officially dead in the US. The April 2023 issues of Maximum PC and MacLife are the last of their kind.

Geopolitical foresight: Europe is weathering the energy crisis, but at what cost?

Europe has been facing an energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the reduction of natural gas supplies from Russia. To cope with the worsening situation, Europe shut down major industrial demands and paid high prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG). The region has also benefited from an unusually warm winter. However, these solutions are not sustainable and have significant economic consequences, particularly for Germany's industrial model.

Europe tapped the global LNG market at unprecedented levels in 2022, paying five to nine times higher prices than before. While the increase in natural gas prices significantly impacted European industries, it had catastrophic consequences for developing nations. Countries like India and Brazil couldn't afford sufficient natural gas to power their economies, leading to reduced imports. Bangladesh and Pakistan, with a combined population of nearly half a billion, have struggled to meet their industrial and power generation demands, resulting in blackouts. LNG suppliers have favored trading with wealthier nations offering higher prices, often redirecting shipments intended for poorer countries to Europe or not delivering them altogether, despite pre-existing contractual agreements.

The long-term outlook for Europe remains uncertain, as traditional Russian natural gas supplies are unlikely to return, and the construction of LNG liquefaction facilities takes years. Europe may have to keep its industry offline to reduce demand, but this comes at a significant economic cost. The continent was fortunate to have dodged several bullets in 2022, but a multi-year transition to alternative energy sources is needed more than ever.

Wider implications of Europe addressing its energy crisis may include:

Aggressive investments in renewable energy research and development to fast-track the transition to alternative energy sources. This development can lead to more regional jobs and economic growth.
An increasing competition for global talent as countries attempt to leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to streamline energy production and lower costs.
Developing economies experiencing more blackouts as demand for natural gas continues to rise, leading to decreasing quality of life.
More regulations and policies that favor renewable and sustainable energy production, including mandatory solar panel installations, heat pumps, and retrofitting old buildings.
Increased cooperation among European Union members to share the costs for pipelines and renewable energy projects.