The Futures - No. 07

From Quantumrun

May 30, 2023

TLDR: In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about parents genetically testing and preselecting their future babies, the labor shortage triggered by Baby Boomers’ retirement, and migration trends caused by war and climate change.

Future signals to watch

Biodiversity is plummeting with half of animal populations in decline.
The EU is one step closer to releasing the world's first comprehensive AI regulation.
Vietnam is developing a coffee bean that is resistant to climate change.
While lunar exploration continues to be largely governed by public agencies, an increasing number of private space corporations are establishing their plans for building structures on the Moon.
The space supply chain is transitioning from primarily custom-made solutions to a more modular and interchangeable approach.
Ripple Energy is mobilizing capital to establish the UK's first-ever communal solar park, slated for construction in Devon.

Genetic testing services for embryos are rising

Even today, there remains a long list of risks associated with pregnancy, especially as more couples wait until their 30s and 40s to conceive. One particular risk occurs when couples discover early in a pregnancy that their fetus has a severe genetic disorder, increasing the chances of premature death. To address this danger proactively, more and more couples are opting for in vitro fertilization (IVF) to conduct genetic screening. A test known as preimplantation genetic testing for polygenic disease risk (PGT-P) allows potential parents to screen for multiple common diseases. Despite the uncertainty and controversy surrounding the accuracy of these tests, many couples find solace in the hope of bringing a healthy child into the world.

Some genetic testing companies offer genomic prediction to analyze and rank the embryos' disease risk. These tests delve further into genetic analysis to “predict” additional traits, such as managing stress or susceptibility to depression. Even as the technology raises ethical questions and stirs fears of a dystopian society where only the wealthy can afford to optimize their children's genes, parents who undergo these procedures argue that these screens can improve future generations' quality of life.

Bioethicist Laura Hercher worries about the commercialization of reproduction and the societal implications if people become less accepting of their children's traits. As the technology becomes more widely accepted, she cautions that the time to discuss its boundaries is now.

Actionable trend insights as genetic testing for embryos become more common

For job seekers: They can explore opportunities in genetic counseling and testing. As the predictive results of genetic testing improves over the 2020s, there will be an increasing need for professionals who can guide and support individuals and couples seeking these services (especially couples with family health histories that include serious hereditary diseases). Professionals with expertise in genetics, molecular biology, bioinformatics, and related fields can also find opportunities in research and development roles to advance the science of genetic analysis.
For entrepreneurs: They can establish genetic testing startups focused on providing genetic counseling services or specialized genetic tests catering to hospital/clinic diagnostic needs, as well as the specific needs of potential parents. And since genetic testing generates vast amounts of data, entrepreneurs can develop software platforms, algorithms, and machine learning models that can efficiently analyze genetic data and provide actionable insights to healthcare professionals.
For corporate innovators: Corporations can consider offering genetic testing as a new health benefit to help employees make informed decisions regarding genetic risks for future diseases/medical conditions, and potentially identify risks that may impact their future children. Pharmaceutical, biotechnology, or healthcare companies can collaborate with genetic testing companies or research institutions to explore potential treatments, therapies, or personalized medicine approaches.
For public sector innovators: Policymakers can work on guidelines and regulations to ensure the ethical use of these genetic testing technologies, protect patient privacy, and address concerns related to discrimination or misuse of genetic information. Government agencies can also provide funding and support for research initiatives to encourage scientists, healthcare professionals, and institutions to conduct further studies and clinical trials to improve the efficacy and accuracy of these genetic testing technologies.

Trending research reports from the world wide web

According to Ernst & Young’s Future Consumer Index, as customers seek to streamline their lives, it becomes increasingly tricky for brands to connect with them.
According to Apple’s 2022 App Store Transparency Report, games remain the top category, followed by utilities and business.
This AI-powered productivity report by Brookings discusses the effects of AI on the future workforce and the hurdles that limit its adoption.

Baby Boomer retirement can trigger long-term labor shortage

Source: ANA Marketers / Artist: Abbey Lossing

Early retirement, whether triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic or made possible by other circumstances, is significantly impacting the job market. Data suggest that retiring Boomers, much more so than the so-called "lazy" Millennials, are the primary cause of the labor shortage. In November 2021, a surge of 3.6 million more Americans exited the labor force year-over-year, with the majority aged over 55. This trend was cited as the reason why the US government has “given up on a big worker rebound.”

The Great Boomer Retirement has led to companies scrambling to fill the void. Jay Denton, Chief Analytics Officer at LaborIQ, a firm that offers wage analysis services to businesses, warns that the current labor scarcity we're facing is expected to persist and potentially intensify. Insider senior correspondent Aki Ito terms this the “forever labor shortage.”

As a result, there may be an intense talent competition for future workers. Initially, they can anticipate increased wages: In April 2023, the average hourly earnings surged 4.4 percent compared to April 2022. Denton expects salary growth to surpass the annual 2 percent increases we experienced in the decade before the pandemic.

Actionable trend insights as Boomer retirement triggers a forever labor shortage

For job seekers: They can focus on industries and professions that will experience a significant labor shortage, such as healthcare, retail, construction, manufacturing, and logistics. By acquiring the necessary skills and qualifications in these areas, job seekers can position themselves as valuable candidates and potentially negotiate better compensation packages.
For entrepreneurs: They can develop solutions, products, or services to address labor shortage gaps, such as business process automation software and robotics. Moreover, a growing retired population might increase the demand for healthcare services, home care assistance, or elderly care.
For corporate innovators: Corporations can implement retention strategies to keep Baby Boomer employees from early retirement. Offering flexible work arrangements, phased retirement options, mentoring programs, and knowledge transfer initiatives can help retain their expertise and avoid losing critical institutional knowledge. Corporations can also invest in training programs and proactive succession planning to ensure a smooth transition to younger workers.
For public sector innovators: The public sector can implement policies and programs that encourage older workers to remain in the workforce, including tax benefits, flexible work arrangements, and training opportunities. Moreover, governments can invest in education and vocational training programs to reskill and upskill individuals, including those affected by the labor shortage, to meet the demands of emerging industries and occupations.

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Outside curiosities

Montana became the first US state to ban TikTok, citing national security issues.
Freelancers are being lured into industrial-scale catfishing by job posts pretending to be "customer support representatives."
Scientists have discovered diverse coastal marine species, including anemones and small crustaceans, unexpectedly living in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch.
A Dutch inventor is "cultivating" coffins by combining mycelium (the root system of mushrooms) with hemp fiber in a unique mold that yields results in a week.

War and natural disasters have accelerated displacement and climate migration

The Pacific Ocean has moved away from La Niña, characterized by the formation of a long strip of cold water near the coast of South America. Current patterns are exhibiting signs of the El Niño phenomenon, where a warm band of water emerges instead. Scientists predict that El Niño will occur within the year, and there is a 55 percent probability that it will be a particularly intense event. This shift can potentially raise global temperatures beyond the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold set by the Paris Agreement, increasing droughts and rainfall.

Aside from costing the global economy trillions of dollars in damages, the impending El Niño can result in accelerated mass migration and displacement, especially among coastal populations and low-income countries. In 2022, the number of individuals internally displaced within their own country by disasters like floods and famine was 8.7 million, representing a 45 percent increase compared to the previous year.

Wars and violent conflicts are also contributing to massive displacement. According to a report by the Norwegian Refugee Council's Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove the global number of individuals internally displaced by conflict or natural disasters to an all-time high of 71.1 million in 2022.

Actionable trend insights as war and natural disasters drive displacement and migration

For job seekers: They can consider roles in humanitarian aid, international relations, environmental science, logistics, and social work. For example, an individual trained in psychology could offer counseling services to refugees, while someone with a background in environmental science could work in a consulting role to help communities prepare for natural disasters. Also, job seekers can take advantage of language skills and cultural competency, as the ability to communicate with migrants and displaced individuals become essential.
For entrepreneurs: They can create services that help people find housing, gain access to education, integrate into new communities, or start new businesses. Additionally, entrepreneurs can tap into the diverse skills and talents of migrants and displaced individuals by creating platforms that match them with job opportunities or provide resources to start their own businesses. Some might also develop new technologies to help predict or mitigate the effects of wars and natural disasters.
For corporate innovators: Companies can invest in corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives that help migrants and displaced individuals, especially those related to internal employees. These efforts not only aid those in need but also potentially open up new markets. Companies can offer job training programs, donate funds or resources, or provide internships or employment opportunities to displaced individuals. On another note, corporations with a global presence can offer relocation programs to employees affected by such events, ensuring business continuity while supporting their staff.
For public sector innovators: Policymakers can proactively invest in infrastructure and emergency funds to accommodate increased migration expected by El Niño and providing social services like healthcare and education. Furthermore, local and national governments can benefit from the skills and talents of migrants, as their integration can contribute to economic growth and cultural diversity.