The Futures - No. 08

From Quantumrun

Jun 06, 2023

TLDR: In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about domestic offshoring redistributing jobs to other cities, and the rise of the Industrial BioTech Complex.

Future signals to watch

Google approved strategies to use generative AI to automate both advertising and ad-supported consumer offerings.
Ingredient supplier ADM and startup Air Protein plan to mass-produce food that only needs air, water, and energy.
Scientists have identified a chemical that can heal nerve damage, possibly restoring lost functions and overcoming paralysis from nerve injuries.
A "brain-spine interface" has been installed on a paralyzed man’s spine, establishing an immediate neurologic connection and allowing him to walk again.
To reduce carbon emissions, France has banned domestic short-distance flights when there are available train alternatives.
Low code and AI are a match made in tech heaven, allowing developers to scale up automation solutions.

Domestic offshoring is redistributing jobs to less expensive cities

Domestic offshoring or "intra-shoring," where low-wage jobs are moved from high-cost cities to more affordable locations, has accelerated in recent years. In the US, call center roles—which typically don't offer wages sufficient to cover living costs in cities like New York, Washington DC, and San Francisco—are being relocated rapidly to places like Orlando, Phoenix, and Las Vegas.

A surge in executive roles has also been seen in cities like Austin, Denver, San Jose, San Diego, Dallas, St. Louis, and Phoenix. This shift aligns with the mass exodus to the US Sun Belt region, an area boasting a lower tax environment and favorable conditions for remote work.

As middle-tier jobs and workers leave cities like San Francisco, Washington, and New York, a growing economic and geographical divide could limit opportunities for people in lower-cost regions.

The same pattern is being observed in Japan. In 2021(for the first time since 2014), the number of individuals aged 30 to 34 relocating out of the Greater Tokyo area outnumbered those moving in. This trend could reduce social and economic mobility, particularly in the so-called 'superstar cities,' where high-end labor is increasingly concentrated.

The shift in job locations is being viewed as a mixed bag. While it allows workers greater flexibility and the opportunity to work remotely, it's likely to contribute to the hollowing out of cities. Urban areas could be sharply divided into wealthy individuals on one end and the service sector on the other, leaving little room for middle-class residents.

Actionable trend insights as domestic offshoring relocates jobs to other cities

For entrepreneurs: They can set up businesses in less expensive cities, taking advantage of lower overhead costs, including rent, utilities, and even salaries. Additionally, entrepreneurs can benefit from the influx of professionals moving into these cities for work, creating a potentially untapped market for services or products. Furthermore, they can establish partnerships with incoming corporations and provide ancillary services.
For corporate innovators: They can significantly reduce their operational costs, including lower rent, utility, and salary costs due to the lower cost of living in these smaller cities/towns. Corporations may also gain access to a new, diverse talent pool, with workers attracted by the lower cost of living or who are native to a given region. The saved funds can be reinvested into the company for research and development, marketing, or further expansion.
For public sector innovators: Domestic offshoring can increase the tax base of rural communities, improve infrastructure and public services outside of primary cities, and reduce unemployment rates. Additionally, a more diversified economy can make smaller provinces, states, and territories more resilient to economic shocks. Policymakers could also use this trend to address regional disparities in economic development by offering incentives for companies to move to areas that need economic stimulation.

Trending research reports from the world wide web

Still confused about how AI works and where it's headed? Andreesen Horowitz compiled a great reference list.
Gen Z and Millennials continue to redefine work-life values, including sustainability and mental health.
New YouGov research indicates that approximately 67% of worldwide consumers consistently keep up with sports through different media channels.
According to Mercer's Global Talent Trends 2022-2023 report, relatable organizations prioritizing cooperation, wellness, and upskilling are winning.

The rise of the Industrial BioTech Complex

The convergence of technology and biology is predicted to follow a similar trajectory to the rise of the mobile era. We're currently in the installation phase, building the infrastructure necessary for the revolutionary capabilities of engineering biology. Similar to how the web era birthed giants like Amazon and Google, the tech-bio age is expected to give rise to Bio GAFA (Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Apple) equivalents, potentially trillion-dollar companies that will address systemic and structural healthcare issues and provide improved care and access at a lower cost.

Emerging biotech companies will likely be full-stack, redesigning entire organizations from the ground up to utilize technology natively. These companies will work closely with federal and local government programs to access extensive payment rails and leverage their platforms to aid initiatives such as value-based care.

Winners in the Industrial BioTech Complex will need to understand the realities of applying bio and technology, drawing expertise from both fields, and building their companies from the ground up. Traditional asset-centric biopharma companies are expected to evolve into platform-based and, eventually, channel-based entities.

The potential to engineer biology extends beyond pharma and healthcare into massive markets such as manufacturing, construction, and durable goods. These innovations promise to combat climate change, increase global prosperity, and transition us to a more bio-based economy.

Actionable trend insights as the Industrial BioTech Complex booms

For entrepreneurs: They can launch startups that focus on biotech solutions, such as creating sustainable biofuels, developing biodegradable plastics, or working on genetic modifications to improve crop yields. They can also create strategic partnerships with established biotech corporations or academic institutions to facilitate resource sharing, knowledge exchange, and commercialization of research findings.
For corporate innovators: Corporations can diversify their product portfolios by incorporating biotech products or services. For example, pharmaceutical companies can partner with innovative biotech startups to develop new technologies in gene editing or personalized medicine. Moreover, by adopting biotech innovations, firms can minimize their environmental footprint, boosting their corporate social responsibility profile and appealing to ethical customers.
For public sector innovators: The public sector can collaborate with private companies in industrial biotech, offering tax incentives, subsidies, or funding for research and development. These partnerships can stimulate economic growth and domestic job creation while advancing scientific knowledge. Policymakers can introduce regulations that promote the use of bio-based products and sustainable practices and implement educational programs that foster a skilled workforce for the biotech industry.

Share The Futures

Outside curiosities

NASA had its first public briefing on military Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs).
A lawyer is in hot water after confessing that he used ChatGPT for drafting court documents. The tool referenced six fabricated cases.
An adorable service dog who went through college with his owner at Seton Hall University also received his diploma upon graduation.
A government official in India was suspended when he ordered a water reservoir to be emptied to recover his smartphone. (He was taking a selfie.)