The Futures - No. 10

From Quantumrun

Jun 20, 2023

TLDR: In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about future farm robots, how clean energy investments are skyrocketing globally, TikTok users generating alternate histories, and why post-pandemic cities are stuck in a “doom loop.”

Future signals to watch

Elon Musk’s brain-computer interface company, Neurolink, received approval to implant microchips into first human test subjects.
For the first time ever in a full month, wind and solar power generated more electricity than fossil fuels in the EU in May 2023.
The European Parliament has endorsed its negotiating mandate for the AI Act, paving the way for the next phase of discussions to establish a unified regulation for artificial intelligence.
In 2022, China’s staggering USD $546 billion investments in renewable energy were nearly 4x higher than the US’ investments and 2.5x higher than the EU’s.
Walmart, Meta, and LinkedIn are currently piloting in-house generative AI solutions for their employees, designed with data security in mind.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that AI will lead to the loss or deterioration of 300 million jobs in the US and Europe.
The accessibility of client-specific information, coupled with the improved forecasting capabilities of AI and machine learning, is set to force businesses to develop unified customer-centric teams that merge conventional marketing and sales roles.

The future farmers are autonomous machines

Source: Yahoo! Finance / Artist: Luis G. Rendon

In 2022, robotics firm John Deere announced they are developing a fully autonomous corn and soybean production system, which could be ready by 2030. The technology used in its autonomous 8R tractor will be implemented across the entire fleet for various tasks. These upgrades are expected to spread rapidly and extensively throughout the installed base.

To expedite the transition to autonomous operations, Deere has outlined plans to incorporate autonomous sensors into the fundamental design of the 8R tractor in the upcoming years. This feature will enable farmers to activate autonomous tasks with a simple touch on a screen. The company said it intends to equip each large tractor they ship with an autonomy kit.

According to ARK's research, integrating this autonomous technology with Deere's ExactShot Planter3 and See and Spray Ultimate Sprayer4 is expected to substantially decrease several costs related to agricultural production. Autonomous technology eliminates the manual operation of equipment, cutting labor expenses associated with crop harvesting. In addition, the ExactShot Planter system strategically applies fertilizer right at the seed level, reducing the starter fertilizer needed by over 60 percent. And finally, the See and Spray Ultimate employs computer vision and machine learning to recognize and spray weeds selectively, leading to a reduction in herbicide use ranging from 67 percent to 80 percent.

Actionable trend insights as autonomous farming develops

For entrepreneurs: They can develop advanced software solutions that manage autonomous farming systems. These solutions could include AI algorithms for precision farming, machine learning models for predictive maintenance of farm equipment, or user-friendly apps that allow farmers to easily (and possibly remotely) manage and monitor their operations.
For corporate innovators: Corporations can invest in producing and selling autonomous farming machinery that target an increasing variety of crop varieties. These machines can range from autonomous tractors to fruit picking robots to drones that monitor crop health. Firms can also offer services that help farmers integrate autonomous technologies into their operations, including specialized loans and financing options, training programs, consultation, and technical support.
For public sector innovators: Governments can develop policies that promote the safe and ethical use of autonomous farming, and provide a legal framework that protects farmers and consumers. In addition, the public sector can provide financial support through grants, loans, and subsidies. This strategy can make autonomous technologies more accessible to farmers, promote its adoption, and stimulate innovation in the sector.

Trending research reports from the world wide web

Canary Media created comprehensive charts on how clean energy manufacturing in the US is surging due to the Inflation Reduction Act’s USD $391 billion funding outlay.
A survey involving nearly 3,000 employees from the US, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark found that just 25 percent of workers are currently, or have returned to, working exclusively from the office.
European technology companies have yielded more than USD $500 billion in exit value over the past half-decade. However, like the previous year, 2023's growth is poised to remain stagnant.
Businesses backed by private equity increased their prices on average by 6.9 percent throughout 2022, which is lower than the global inflation rate of 8.8 percent reported by the International Monetary Fund.

The post-pandemic cities are stuck in a “doom loop”

Severe debt in commercial real estate, particularly in major cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, New York, and Washington DC, is worsening. The downturn in demand due to hybrid or remote work arrangements is severely impacting these cities, causing a massive commercial debt bubble. This crisis is evidenced by the major Los Angeles landlord, the Canadian giant Brookfield, defaulting on a USD $161 million office building debt.

A significant factor contributing to this crisis is that businesses, now more than ever, do not see the need for physical office spaces, affecting the cash flow and future value of commercial real estate. This trend isn't limited to Los Angeles alone. San Francisco is facing a particularly dire situation as the city is experiencing an alarming decrease in downtown activity, with only 31 percent of the pre-pandemic activity level. Meanwhile, UK offices are only a third full so far in 2023, according to Remit Consulting.

The massive exodus of major tech companies, which traditionally required large office spaces, has significantly affected local businesses that relied on office workers for revenue. This decline in business activity leads to a decrease in tax revenue, affecting the city's ability to maintain public infrastructure and services, a scenario referred to as the "Doom Loop."

Actionable trend insights as demand for commercial real estate decreases post-pandemic

For entrepreneurs: They can transform vacant offices into flexible workspaces or coworking spaces. As more companies move towards a hybrid work model, there's likely to be an increased demand for these flexible workspaces. Entrepreneurs could also convert some of these spaces into live-work arrangements catering to self-employed individuals or small businesses.
For corporate innovators: Companies, especially those involved in real estate development, could capitalize on this shift by converting underused commercial properties into residential spaces or mixed-use developments. This could be a profitable endeavor in areas with a housing shortage. Mixed-use developments could also contribute to urban revitalization, creating vibrant communities where people can live, work, and play.
For public sector innovators: Old office buildings could be converted into affordable housing, public libraries, community centers, or schools. This shift could also help to revive city centers that have been negatively impacted by the decrease in office workers. Additionally, the public sector could provide incentives or tax breaks for businesses or developers willing to repurpose their commercial properties to benefit the community. Moreover, a rapid reassessment of municipal bylaws and zoning codes is urgently needed to permit such redevelopment proposals.

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Outside curiosities

Emerging studies propose that a specific group of patients with mental health disorders like schizophrenia may, in fact, be suffering from an autoimmune disease that targets the brain.
TikTok creators are using AI to create alternate histories where Western-led colonization never happened.
The Social Democratic party in Austria said that a "technical error" in an Excel document resulted in the wrong candidate being announced as the new party leader.
Paul McCartney has created a new Beatles song using AI, which he will release later this year.
Adobe Illustrator has released a generative recolor feature that allows users to use text prompts to apply color palettes.
Scientists discovered that octopuses can modify their genetic information, enabling them to rapidly adapt their brains in response to environmental changes.