The Futures - No. 13

From Quantumrun

Jul 11, 2023

TLDR: In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about the China-Russia domination plan for Eurasia, the age of the grandparent as seniors take on more childcare responsibilities, media companies shifting to AI content, and Snapchat’s subscription success.

Future signals to watch

This year’s hospitalizations due to extreme summer heat are projected to cost US healthcare $1 billion.
G/O Media, the parent company of Gizmodo and Jalopnik, announced it will follow in the footsteps of CNET by publishing content written by AI days after laying off staff.
Marine scientists warn that space junk may become the next environmental crisis after plastic in the ocean. Of note, SpaceX-owned Starlink internet satellites had to "swerve more than 25,000 times" from December 2022 through May 2023 to stay clear of potential collisions.
In response to the newly introduced Online News Act (Bill C-18), which aims to make platforms pay for the use of Canadian journalistic content, Google and Meta declared that they will stop sharing Canadian news links on their sites.
US authorities gave the green light to BioMarin's gene therapy for the most common type of hemophilia. The infused treatment is priced at USD $2.9 million.
The EU’s Digital Markets Act opens a way for Meta to let EU residents directly download apps through Facebook ads, directly competing with major app stores.
Snapchat’s subscription service, Snapchat+, has achieved a milestone of 4 million paid subscribers within its first year, offering a glimpse of the future of social media apps.

Grandparents are becoming primary child caregivers

The number of grandparents has tripled since 1960 due to longer life expectancies, now representing 20 percent of the world's population. By 2050, nearly one in four people will be a grandparent in what The Economist terms “The Age of the Grandparent.”

Grandparents often play a crucial role in supporting working mothers, with data showing that the presence of a grandparent increases a woman's likelihood of employment. For instance, the availability of grandparents for childcare increases a mother’s participation in the labor force by 9 percentage points. Grandparents also actively engage in their grandchildren's lives, with a significant percentage of children spending time with their grandparents weekly.

While children raised primarily by grandparents tend to face more emotional and behavioral issues, this is often due to challenging circumstances that require grandparent care. For the grandparents themselves, spending time with grandchildren can reduce feelings of depression and loneliness. However, some may feel obligated to provide care, and the responsibility can become more challenging with age.

As the grandparent population continues to grow, further research is needed to understand the implications and nuances of this trend. Factors such as generational identity, life circumstances, and changing expectations of longevity and retirement will likely influence the role and impact of grandparents in society.

Actionable trend insights as the grandparent population increases

For entrepreneurs: There is clearly an ongoing demand for affordable childcare that entrepreneurs may be able to provide in innovative formats, potentially including the employment of senior citizens. Similar affordable care facilities will be required to manage the growing senior citizen population. On-demand, Uber-style services may also be created to provide specialized care services to seniors, but also to grandchildren that seniors with physical limitations may not be able to provide.
For corporate innovators: Corporations could also consider implementing policies that support employees who are balancing work with caring for aging parents, such as flexible work hours or elder care benefits. Commercially, companies can also adapt their products or services to cater to this growing senior demographic. For example, electronics companies could design user-friendly devices and software applications for seniors.
For public sector innovators: Governments and public sector organizations can prepare for this demographic shift by investing in infrastructure and services that support an aging population. This support could include improving public transportation for seniors, expanding healthcare services, or creating community programs that promote social engagement among seniors. Policymakers could also consider legislation that supports grandparents, such as tax benefits for those providing childcare or laws that protect the rights of grandparents raising grandchildren. Likewise, governments may also be incentivized to provide subsidized childcare services for children who don’t have or have access to their grandparents.

Trending research reports from the world wide web

A Wall Street Journal survey reveals that marketing executives think AI will enable them to reduce costs by approximately 13 percent, primarily through internal headcount reductions.
According to PwC’s Global Workforce Hopes and Fears Survey, there’s still a significant increase in job dissatisfaction, with 26 percent of workers planning to leave their jobs in the next year, a rise from 2022's 19 percent.
Only 29 percent of executives believe their organization currently has the in-house expertise to implement generative AI, and merely 30 percent agree that their organization is prepared to responsibly adopt generative AI.
A US poll by The Verge revealed that the largest AI user group is Millennials, followed by Gen Z.

China and Russia building their way to Eurasian domination: Geopolitical Foresight

Source: The Daily Beast / Artist: Luis G. Rendon

China's new foreign policy, introduced by Xi Jinping, marks a shift from a low-profile approach to a more proactive stance. This shift is evident in the country's USD $165 billion deal with Russia, which includes the development of 80 bilateral projects across Eurasia. This partnership is creating new trade corridors and infrastructure, strengthening the bond between China and Russia, and expanding their influence.

Historically, a Chinese-Russian alliance was considered unlikely due to past tensions and differing principles. However, geopolitical dynamics are ever-changing, and this alliance is now a reality. The partnership is not only reshaping the geopolitical landscape but also impacting global trade and energy policies.

China's development strategy, previously focused on export-oriented manufacturing, is now expanding to include energy and infrastructure projects with Russia. This shift is evident in the proposed new land grain corridor, connecting Russian grain to Chinese markets, reducing China's dependence on North American and Australian imports.

The energy sector is another key area of integration. China's growing demand is set to absorb Russian supply, with the Power of Siberia pipelines playing a pivotal role. This pipeline, along with other upcoming projects, will provide an outlet for gas fields previously serving Europe, making it a direct replacement for the Nord Stream pipelines.

Overall, Russia’s alienation from its European neighbors will lead to a closer reliance on China, just as China’s relations with the West threatens its access to key resource imports. A temporary marriage of convenience that may sustain each nation’s authoritarian ruling elites into the 2030s and beyond.

Actionable trend insights as Russia and China’s Eurasian projects increase

For entrepreneurs: Middle Eastern and Asian consultancy firms may emerge to help regional businesses navigate and integrate with the cultural, legal, and business landscapes of China and Russia. Such services could include translation, negotiation assistance, and market research. In addition, with land-based grain and energy corridors in development, there's potential for small businesses situated along these corridors to provide labor, logistics, and transportation support services to help move goods along trade routes.
For corporate innovators: Western multinationals may eventually be pressured by their home governments (and customers) to exit Russian and Chinese markets. Fortunately, the global shift toward greater domestic self-sufficiency may benefit the growth prospects of domestic and regional bloc companies, especially those that specialize in energy, manufacturing, construction, mining, and agricultural production. For instance, this onshoring trend could be particularly fruitful for Western corporations that serve European and North American markets that will need to find new energy and raw materials sources as Russia shifts its exports to China. Conversely, Middle Eastern and Asian nations may encourage their domestic companies to diversify and integrate their supply chains into the emerging China-Russia trade corridors.
For public sector innovators: Geopolitical negotiations may become increasingly frequent to navigate potential tensions between the China-Russia alliance and the West. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern and Asian governments may promote language and cultural exchange programs to foster better understanding and relationships with their Chinese and Russian neighbors. Such initiatives could help create a regional workforce ready to engage with these markets to support various infrastructure and logistics projects.

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Outside curiosities

This week, dozens of AI-generated click farm books have made their way onto Amazon's Kindle Unlimited young adult romance bestseller list.
Atrium Ljungberg plans to build the world's largest wooden city in Stockholm, with construction starting in 2025 and the first buildings anticipated to be ready by 2027.
A VFX artist described the intense workload on a film project as "almost slavery," with reports of artists working for days on end, sleeping under their desks during breaks.
An ad agency used stock footage of other countries to create the new Philippine tourism campaign for the government, including sand dunes from Brazil and desert scenes from the UAE.