The Futures - No. 14

From Quantumrun

Jul 18, 2023

TLDR: In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about gene therapies becoming the primary healthcare cost, how wars are rapidly adopting next-gen tech, the growth of deinfluencers, and the birth of the world’s newest volcano.

Future signals to watch

An underground reserve of premium phosphate rock in Norway, touted as the largest globally, can meet the global need for fertilizers, solar panels, and electric vehicle batteries for the next 50 years.
With a speed of 281 miles per hour, China's new high-speed magnetic levitation (maglev) train is the world’s fastest.
Coresight Research thinks US livestreaming sales could easily reach $50 billion this year (2023).
Toyota is confident that it can develop a solid-state battery capable of powering electric vehicles for 745 miles and can be fully charged in just 10 minutes.
A growing group of "deinfluencers" is advocating that materialism and overpriced trends are no longer fashionable. (You don’t need the USD $185 weighted blanket.)
In a groundbreaking first, scientists have discovered how a human olfactory receptor captures an airborne scent molecule, a crucial chemical interaction that initiates our sense of smell.
Quantumrun is excited to announce a partnership with NachoNacho, the world’s largest B2B SaaS marketplace. Get discounts on all SaaS subscriptions, including ours ;)

Are gene therapies going to be the major healthcare expense?

In 2021, overall US health expenditure rose by 2.7 percent, reaching $4.3 trillion, or $12,914 per person. In addition, $603 billion were spent on prescription medications, particularly retail drugs. The expenditure on drugs is primarily influenced by a limited number of high-priced products, mainly specialty drugs which accounted for half of total drug spending. The cost of these specialty drugs surged to $301 billion in 2021, a 43 percent rise since 2016.

However, ARK research thinks healthcare expenditure will soon shift from chronic disease management to one-time, curative gene-editing therapies. Some clinical trials are already delivering promising results. For example, in June, Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced the Phase 1/2 results of VX-800, their gene therapy treatment for type 1 diabetics. All six patients who received the treatment successfully produced their own insulin and experienced improved blood sugar control. This treatment also reduced or eliminated insulin use.

Cell and gene therapies (CGTs) didn’t get their first approval until 2017. As of 2022, only 27 CGTs have received FDA approval, making up about 8 percent of the 340 approved biologics. However, when it comes to the composition of truly groundbreaking drugs, CGTs continue to contribute to an increasing percentage of total approvals.

Source: Cell & Gene, FDA, and Evaluate Pharma

Actionable trend insights as gene therapies consume a larger share of national healthcare budgets

For biotech entrepreneurs: They can look for gaps in the healthcare market where CGTs could provide solutions, such as a specific disease or condition that current therapies do not adequately address. They can pitch CGT ideas to venture capitalists and angel investors, or apply for grants focused on biotech innovation. Understanding and complying with the regulatory landscape, including FDA approval processes and clinical trial requirements, is also essential. Private healthcare clinics that consult patients on CGT selection and administer their injection/delivery may also represent a premium business opportunity.
For corporate innovators: Biotech and pharmaceutical companies can allocate greater resources to CGT research and development, including setting up a dedicated team or department. They can partner with universities, research institutions, or startups working on CGTs; this strategy can accelerate the development process and bring in fresh ideas. Training employees about CGTs may help pharma workforces prepare to work on these new therapies.
For public sector innovators: Governments can develop and implement policies encouraging the research, development, and use of CGTs. These regulations could include funding for research, tax incentives for companies, and regulatory frameworks that ensure safety without stifling innovation. They can also launch campaigns to educate the public about the benefits and potential risks of CGTs, helping to build public trust and acceptance. Investing in infrastructure that supports the development and delivery of CGTs may also be beneficial, including research labs, manufacturing facilities, and training centers.

Trending research reports from the world wide web

Most Fortune 500 companies (72 percent) intend to integrate generative AI into their operations within the next three years to enhance workforce efficiency.
A report predicts that China's GDP will surpass that of the US in the early 2030s. However, China's economic growth will also become relatively stagnant afterward.
Benedict Evans argues that as long as there’s still no artificial general intelligence, the current wave of automation is just business as usual.
The creator economy funding is down over 90 percent in the second quarter of 2023 compared with the same period two years ago.

Future wars will become a next-gen tech battlefield

Source: Gizmodo / Clip from Carolco Pictures and TriStar Pictures

Major wars are tragic for the nations involved, but they also reshape global conflict preparedness and influence global security. The ongoing war in Ukraine, the largest in Europe since 1945, will shape the future understanding of warfare. It points to a new type of high-intensity war that merges advanced technology with large-scale destruction involving civilians, allies, and private firms.

Autocratic regimes are studying this war to gain an advantage in future conflicts, and liberal societies must acknowledge the reality of potential wars between industrialized economies. The battlefield is becoming transparent due to advanced sensors on satellites and drone fleets. Future wars will depend on surveillance to detect the enemy first, blind their sensors, and disrupt data transmission. Troops will need to adapt to new fighting methods, and armies that fail to invest in new technologies or doctrines will be overwhelmed.

Despite advancements in artificial intelligence, war still involves a massive physical presence of humans, machines, and munitions. The casualty rate in Ukraine has been high due to the ability to see and hit targets precisely. The consumption of munitions and equipment is immense, with Russia firing 10 million shells a year and Ukraine losing 10,000 drones monthly. Technology may eventually alter how this physical "mass" is maintained, but armies need to be prepared for high attrition rates, and increase munitions manufacturing capacity and manpower reserves.

Actionable trend insights as wars become increasingly high-tech

For entrepreneurs: As authoritarian governments become more unstable and as private sector companies gradually become more patriotic, the reputational cost of participating in the defense industry will fade. This shift will offer entrepreneurs a freer hand to start businesses that develop advanced surveillance systems, autonomous vehicles, or AI algorithms that support national defense.
For corporate innovators: Defense industry companies can increase their annual research and development budgets, acquire startups with promising technologies, or form partnerships with tech companies. Defense firms can also ensure their employees (and the military personnel they serve) are prepared for the shift towards high-tech warfare by providing training in the use of advanced emerging technologies, such as AI, cybersecurity, and data analysis.
For public sector innovators: Governments can implement these technologies in their defense strategies, including using AI for data analysis, drones for surveillance, or autonomous vehicles for logistics and battle tactics. Governments can also invest in education and training programs to prepare their defense personnel for these technologies. These investments could involve funding university programs or providing scholarships for relevant fields related to the defense industry.

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Outside curiosities

Fast Company discusses why we should stop using the terms “work wife/husband/spouse.”
Meta's Threads reached 100 million sign-ups in record time (5 days). Easily the most successful social platform launch in history. (Elon Musk is not happy).
In June, the world’s newest volcano was born in Iceland's Reykjanes peninsula, spewing lava southward.
The largest fanfiction repository, Archive of Our Own (AO3), was hit by a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack, making it offline for 24 hours. Enter the memes.

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