The Futures - No. 16

From Quantumrun

Aug 01, 2023

Source: Demilked / Artist: Camille Allen

TLDR: In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about the looming collapse of commercial real estate, Asia-Pacific's booming fertility market, the rise of climate doomers, and hypnotic GenAI art at the MOMA.

Future signals to watch

It’s confirmed. An MIT study discovered that ChatGPT helps employees become better writers. (The tool can also be a great tutor.)
Climate doomers, who are convinced that all is lost when it comes to global warming, are going viral.
The future of children's entertainment is YouTube educational and gaming channels.
Green banks that invest in sustainable projects could help address the energy and climate crises.
LinkedIn’s COO thinks that AI will make self-promotion and recruitment easier (and less awkward).
Biotech firm Conception is attempting to commercialize in vitro gametogenesis (IVG) by turning stem cells into egg and sperm cells.
Here’s a glimpse of the potential of drones in emergency services, in this case, putting out high-rise fires.
The next step for large language models: Understanding the language of biology.

The fertility industry is booming in Asia-Pacific

The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region is experiencing a surge in demand for In vitro fertilization (IVF) services, a process where an egg is fertilized by sperm outside the body and then implanted into the uterus. The market for these services was worth USD $9 billion in 2021, and it's expected to grow to USD $46 billion by 2031, a growth rate of 17.1 percent per year. China is a crucial player, accounting for half the global demand for IVF services. The country is investing in IVF research and technology to become a global leader.

With one of the world's highest rates of IVF treatment, Japan is providing subsidies, and the number of IVF clinics has increased. Singapore is emerging as a hub for IVF services in Southeast Asia, boasting some of the region's most advanced clinics. The government is supporting the industry's growth through investment in research and technology, attracting foreign patients for treatment.

Australia, where IVF services are widely available, has some of the world's highest success rates for IVF treatment. Meanwhile, IVF services are gaining popularity in India because they're more affordable at USD $1,200 to $2,500 per cycle. A single IVF cycle can cost between USD $12,000 and $14,000 in the US. Similarly, the UK and Singapore charge over USD $6,000 and $7,000, respectively.

Actionable trend insights as the demand for women’s fertility services increases

For entrepreneurs: They could create marketing and other digital service agencies that cater to fertility clinics. Similarly, with the cost of IVF treatments varying widely across countries, entrepreneurs could also start agencies that help couples plan and arrange treatment in countries where it's more affordable. Such agencies could also provide additional services like arranging consultations with overseas doctors, providing information on the legal aspects of fertility treatments in different countries, and offering post-treatment care. Entrepreneurs will likely also release a range of modern, science-backed dietary products and supplements that promote fertility benefits.
For corporate innovators: Firms could offer fertility benefits as part of their health insurance packages, helping to attract and retain talent. This package could include coverage for IVF treatments, fertility preservation, or surrogacy. Healthcare corporations could form partnerships with fertility clinics. For example, a pharmaceutical company could partner with clinics to provide discounted fertility medications to patients. Such partnerships can also lead to collaborative research and development efforts, leading to advancements in fertility treatments.
For public sector innovators: Governments could implement fertility education programs in schools or community centers, raising awareness about fertility issues and available treatments. These programs could cover topics like reproductive health, the causes of infertility, and the different treatment options available. The government could also provide subsidies or tax breaks for fertility treatments, making them more accessible to a wider population. This move could also lead to job creation in the healthcare sector and address the global slowdown in birth rates, particularly in advanced economies.
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Trending research reports from the world wide web

Andreessen Horowitz discusses the possible next-level breakthroughs of generative AI, such as multimodality and enhanced memory.
A Nielsen Norman Group survey shows that AI improved worker productivity by 66 percent.
The New York Times released an interactive chart on how various demographic shifts are changing the workforce.

A commercial real estate bubble is on the horizon

A McKinsey report suggests that by 2030, the value of office space in key global cities could decrease by USD $800 billion due to the growing remote work trend. This collapse in building asset prices could pose a serious debt risk for corporations, regional banks, and investment firms with significant commercial real estate holdings.

The McKinsey projection is based on a survey of 13,000 full-time office employees and focuses on nine major cities in the US, Europe, and Asia, including San Francisco, London, New York, Houston, Paris, Munich, Tokyo, Beijing, and Shanghai. The report indicates that the demand for office space in most of these cities in 2030 will be less than pre-COVID-19 levels.

The estimated average drop in the value of office spaces across these cities over this period is 26 percent. The report also suggests that the decrease could be more significant if interest rates continue to rise.

The report presents a particularly bleak forecast for San Francisco (which Elon Musk has declared a “derelict zombie apocalypse”), predicting a 20 percent to 38 percent drop in office-space demand, the worst among the nine US cities reviewed. This drop is attributed to its high number of commuters, expensive housing, and the tendency of tech workers to embrace remote work. Houston and Beijing are exceptions, with a predicted 2 percent increase in office space demand over 11 years.

Actionable trend insights as demand for commercial real estate plummets

For entrepreneurs: They can develop businesses that offer corporate owners of office buildings customized construction and redevelopment services. These services can include rapid renovations of traditional offices into hybrid workspaces, co-living spaces that cater to digital nomads, as well as the more intensive option of redeveloping an office building into residential condominiums.
For corporate innovators: Firms with unused office spaces can explore repurposing these assets into revenue-generating ventures. For example, they could partner with smaller vendors to convert parts of their office buildings into urban data centers, given the increasing demand for cloud services. Alternatively, unused spaces could be transformed into vertical farms, urban hospitals, and schools. Warehouse-as-a-service is also becoming popular, with businesses opting to share warehouses and their related infrastructures to cut costs.
For public sector innovators: Local governments can reassess zoning bylaws to transform vacant government office buildings into community resources, including affordable housing units, community centers, or public schools. They could also implement policies incentivizing companies that change unused spaces into community buildings, such as tax incentives and subsidies. The public sector can also optimize city infrastructure with fewer people commuting to offices. For example, a city could repurpose parking lots or structures into green spaces or recreational areas, enhancing the quality of life for residents.

Outside curiosities

Hypnotic GenAI art at the MOMA titled "Unsupervised" by artist Refik Anadol.
Apple still has the magic when it comes to product ads with their ‘Apple at Work’ series. Their anti-theft ad is a 🤣🤣🤣
The AI-human artist cover mashup is intensifying. Here’s Johnny Cash singing “Barbie Girl.”
An Australian man and his dog survived two months of being stranded on the Pacific Ocean.
Kencore, a combination of fabrics in punchy colors, is now a fashion revolution.
Divers and snorkelers attended an underwater concert in the Florida Keys to raise awareness about safeguarding coral reefs.
It’s never too late to return overdue books. This one was returned to the Massachusetts Library 119 years later.