The Futures - No. 20

From Quantumrun

Aug 29, 2023

Source: South China Morning Post / Artist: Brian Wang

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about young workers in Asia rejecting factory jobs, the unstoppable green energy revolution, the cultural trend of kidulting, and a potential super-antiviral drug.

Future signals to watch

The next police officer to flag you down when you violate traffic rules may be this robot.
New Zealand startup Kimer Med is developing a broad-spectrum drug that can treat 200+ viral diseases.
Hollywood is replacing stunt actors with their AI replicas.
Kidulting (adults who engage in activities geared for children, like playing with old-fashioned toys) is becoming the new cultural and mental health trend.
Software engineers are advocating for "local-first software" to cut out cloud providers like Amazon and Google.
Researchers discovered that anti-obesity and diabetes medication Semaglutide can substantially reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD), with an estimated risk reduction of 1.50 million preventable CVD events over 10 years.
US commercial pilots conducted 70 test flights using Google's AI predictions and Breakthrough Energy's models, successfully reducing contrails (the white lines that airplanes emit that cause global warming) by 54 percent.
Generative AI copied a real person’s voice, accent, and mannerisms and created their AI counterpart, and you can’t tell which is which.

As young workers reject factory jobs, is this goodbye to ultracheap products?

Young people in Asia are increasingly reluctant to work in factories, leading to staffing challenges in countries like China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. This shift is driven by better education, exposure to alternative (Western) lifestyles through social media, and a lack of interest in factory-related engineering roles. As a result, Asian manufacturers struggle to recruit and retain younger workers, leading to higher labor costs or a move toward automation.

The situation also highlights a broader societal shift in Asia, where young workers are pushing back on working conditions and seeking higher-paying jobs that align with their education levels. This change reflects a move away from the traditional value placed on factory work and may signal a reevaluation of global manufacturing dynamics.

In the short term, this trend may lead to higher prices on a wide range of products, from clothing and electronics to toys and furniture. Over the past decade, wages for manufacturing workers in Asian countries have risen notably, contributing to price increases for companies like Mattel, Hasbro, and Nike.

In response to the labor shortage, some Asian manufacturers are offering perks like yoga classes and better cafeteria food, while others are considering moving production closer to the US, such as Mexico. However, these strategies may not be enough to offset rising labor costs, and the era of inexpensive goods could be coming to an end. (At least until the field of robotics matures enough to replace the vast majority of current factory jobs; assume this future will arrive by the mid-2030s.)

Actionable trend insights as the Asia factory labor shortage worsens

For entrepreneurs: They can explore creating affordable and scalable digital automation solutions tailored to SMEs in manufacturing. For well-funded startups, there remain significant opportunities in robotics R&D to automate a wide range of physical labor. Entrepreneurs can also partner with industry experts, educational institutions, and corporations to provide targeted educational programs, apprenticeships, and mentorship programs.
For corporate innovators: Initiatives like flexible work hours, mental health support, continuous learning opportunities, and clear career progression paths can make manufacturing roles more appealing. Collaborations with educational institutions for specialized training can be a part of this strategy. Emphasizing and implementing sustainable and ethical manufacturing practices can resonate with the values of younger generations. In addition, transparency in sourcing, reducing environmental impact, and ensuring fair labor practices can enhance a manufacturer’s brand image and attract both employees and consumers.
For public sector innovators: Governments (especially those in developing countries) can launch campaigns to rebrand manufacturing as a field of innovation, creativity, and growth. Collaborations with industry leaders, youth educational tours, and hands-on workshops can provide real insights into the opportunities within the sector. Public sector entities can also facilitate building strong connections between academic institutions and the manufacturing industry. By aligning curricula with industry needs, promoting research and development, and subsidizing internships and co-op programs, governments can ensure that the education system produces graduates with relevant skills and knowledge.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

If you ever want to become an AI expert (or you just want to know where the tech is heading), read this comprehensive list by Andreessen Horowitz.
Bonus: If you want to know how AI and large-language model (LLM) startups sustain (or not) the high costs of training these models, read this.
This study discovered that customer support agents with generative AI chat assistants were 14 percent more productive.
This study shows that soil hosts the greatest diversity of species on the planet, with over 90 percent of the world’s fungi, 85 percent of plants, and over half of all bacteria living in it.

Share The Futures

All is not lost: The global green revolution is happening

While the Quantumrun team often reports on the worrying trend lines of our climate challenge, silver linings are peeking through. The global shift towards renewable energy is evident in policy and practice, with significant developments in the US, Europe, and China. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has been a key driver in moving towards a carbon-neutral future in the US. With USD $600 billion in spending, the IRA focuses on renewable energy and climate resilience, including provisions supporting the solar industry. Since its implementation, over USD $100 billion in private investments have been announced in the solar and storage sectors. Likewise, the growth in domestic solar manufacturing is expected to have employed over 20,000 Americans in 2022 and will employ over 100,000 by the 2030s.

In Europe, ambitious targets have been set for solar power expansion. The EU's plans include doubling the current (2023) solar power production by 2030. Some countries have increased their solar targets by up to 500 percent, with four nations already meeting their 2030 goals. The EU's response to the energy crisis includes new policies to expand solar investment, such as the RePowerEU Plan and the Green Deal Industry Plan. However, challenges in grid flexibility and worker training in the solar sector have been noted.

In the first half of 2023, China was responsible for two-thirds of the investment in onshore wind, amounting to USD $38 billion.

Globally, solar remains an economically viable choice for electricity generation despite rising investment costs. According to the International Energy Agency, solar generation increased 26 percent last year, surpassing wind. The distributed solar PV sector, including rooftop installations, is poised for rapid expansion, reflecting a worldwide readiness for a renewable-based energy system.

Actionable trend insights as green energy investments increase

For entrepreneurs: They can create businesses that develop and distribute solar- and wind-powered products for off-grid communities. Products like wind turbines, solar lanterns, chargers, and water purifiers can provide essential services in remote areas. Companies like d.light have successfully brought solar solutions to millions of people in developing countries, demonstrating the potential for social impact and profitability. Businesses can also create platforms that facilitate solar project financing and bridge the gap between investors and those seeking to adopt renewable energy.
For corporate innovators: Companies can enter into long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with renewable energy providers to lock in energy prices and reduce exposure to energy price volatility. Likewise, taking advantage of current government subsidy programs (like the US IRA) to build new energy-efficient office and factory facilities could advance CAPEX investment goals by years. Corporations can also invest in research and development of next-generation solar technologies, including enhancing the efficiency of solar cells, developing solar-powered vehicles, or creating new storage solutions. Toyota's research into solar-powered cars and Tesla's integration of solar roofs with battery storage are good examples of these initiatives.
For public sector innovators: Public sector entities can fund targeted training programs to prepare workers for jobs in the solar industry. For example, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) offers training programs in energy efficiency and clean technology, preparing workers for various roles in the renewable energy sector. Governments can also establish incentives to encourage renewable energy manufacturing and deployment. This could include tax credits, grants, or low-interest loans for businesses and homeowners investing in green technologies. Germany's feed-in tariff system, which guarantees fixed payments for energy fed into the grid, has been instrumental in making the country a leader in solar energy.

Outside curiosities

Imagine casually arriving to work on a jetpack. That might be closer to reality than you think.
This eco-friendly material might soon replace bubble wrap. (But will it give the same satisfaction as popping those bubbles?)
Would you take advice from an AI life coach? Because Google is making one.
Scotland is allowing tourists to participate in rewilding the Scottish Highlands.
Drought stranded more than 200 ships in the Panama Canal.