The Futures - No. 22

From Quantumrun

Sep 12, 2023

Source: Foreign Policy / Artist: Brian Stauffer

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about governments racing to establish domestically controlled AI, innovation potentially hitting a brick wall globally, brain implants that can change the lives of people with disabilities, and a global fungal infection that’s worrying doctors.

Future signals to watch

China anticipates gasoline usage to peak this year, two years earlier than expected, due to the increased adoption of electric vehicles.
Google launches Duet AI, officially embedding AI assistance into its Workspace, including Slides, Docs, and Sheets.
Drug-resistant fungal infections are rising globally, and the medical community is far from prepared.
OpenAI’s introduction of ChatGPT Enterprise could mean the company has completed training on GPT-5. Any bets on a surprise December release?
Climate engineering firm Transsolar is pioneering a building with “self-cooling” concrete walls that could stay as much as 18 degrees cooler than average.
As China’s youth unemployment worsens, young people are pivoting to a new salaried career: full-time children.
US space companies are becoming the next targets for cyberattacks and malware.
A brain implant allowed a paralyzed woman to communicate through synthesized speech and a digital avatar.

AI: The gold that governments don’t want to share

Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming a focal point for governments worldwide, each adopting unique approaches to regulation and development. In the US, Stanford's Institute for Human-Centered AI hosted a boot camp to educate US policymakers on AI's potential and challenges, signaling a growing interest in AI legislation. Meanwhile, the White House and Senate are working on new rules for AI use.

AI legislation in US states

In contrast, the European Union is leaning towards structured laws that categorize and ban high-risk AI applications, such as incorporating AI in aviation, medical devices, and even elevators. China is taking a dual approach, emphasizing corporate transparency and content control. However, some critics think China's AI policies are more about state control than anything else.

These varied strategies make it unlikely for a unified global AI regulation to emerge anytime soon. Instead, countries are focusing on national AI systems, much like they do with currencies. For instance, the US recently restricted AI chip exports to parts of the Middle East, while China and Europe have limited the use of American chatbots like ChatGPT due to regulatory concerns.

This divergence in AI policy is leading to the development of country-specific AI technologies. In China, the approved chatbot is Baidu's Ernie, while in the UAE, Jais is becoming the go-to AI model. On September 7, the Abu Dhabi government launched Falcon 180B, with 180 billion parameters, making it comparable to Google’s Bard. The situation is like a gold rush where everyone digs on the same site but keeps the discoveries (and dangers) to themselves. This trend has implications for AI companies, as they need to be aware of markets that may be off-limits due to national policies.

Actionable trend insights as governments establish national AI policies and tools

For entrepreneurs: They can develop AI tools specifically tailored to domestic government needs and regional regulations (e.g., EU legislation). Likewise, with new AI regulations, there will be a need for a range of professional services, such as legal and audit services that specialize in AI compliance. Entrepreneurs could develop AI platforms to help other businesses comply with these new laws. For instance, specialized platforms could automatically scan a company's AI algorithms to ensure they don't inadvertently discriminate based on gender or ethnicity.
For corporate innovators: Companies can establish internal units focused on understanding and adapting to national AI policies. These units could liaise with government bodies, ensuring that the corporation is compliant and influential in shaping future policies. For example, a tech company could work closely with regulators to develop industry standards for AI in education or advertising.
For public sector innovators: Governments can foster innovation by forming partnerships with private companies for AI research, as well as create meaningful regulations that ensure the responsible development and application of AI. These domestic collaborations could focus on essential sectors like healthcare, transportation, or energy. Likewise, governments can explore funding AI research to focus on national priorities like security and defense.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

ARK research suggests that as electric air taxis become commercialized, fares would lower from USD $430 to $180 (or $70 per passenger).
This global steelmaking capacity report shows that production plans have changed significantly, with 43% of planned capacity now largely gas and electricity-based while only 57% uses coal.
According to a McKinsey global survey across different age groups and backgrounds, about 25 percent are feeling the signs of burnout.
According to the 2023 Global Mid-Year Forecast report, global retail media advertising growth is poised to overtake digital advertising this year.

Innovation is about to hit a brick wall

Source: The Wall Street Journal / Artist: Andrew Rae

The pace of technological advancement we've seen in recent decades may not be sustainable over the next two decades, primarily due to shifts in demographics and capital availability. The young workforce, mainly people in their 20s and 30s, has been the backbone of tech development. They have been the ones imagining, creating, and implementing new technologies. However, as Baby Boomers retire and Millennials age, the number of people in this ideal age range for tech innovation is dwindling, resulting in Zoomers (Gen Z) carrying the burden of keeping tech developments rolling. In addition, global fertility is plummeting, further limiting the human capital available for innovation.

Additionally, the financial landscape is changing. Baby Boomers are taking their investment capital into retirement, which could lead to less funding for new ventures over the 2030s and 2040s. This is significant because technological development requires substantial investment before any returns can be realized. In addition, high inflation and escalating costs of living have resulted in Baby Boomers needing every single penny they can save (and, often, it’s not even enough).

These demographic and financial shifts are altering the very foundation that has supported rapid technological growth over the past four decades, particularly in the US. As a result, it's possible that only technologies that have already reached a certain level of maturity will continue to advance at their current pace. For example, it remains to be seen whether emerging disruptive technologies with the most social impact, such as AI, digitized agriculture, modular nuclear reactors, biotech / genetic editing, and space tech, will continue to attract sufficient development funding over the coming decades to benefit the wider population.

The optimistic counterargument may be that:

Future versions of generative AI platforms will become capable of reliably generating new innovations and advancing the scientific method to offset the shrinking numbers of millennial and zoomer scientists and engineers.
Likewise, GenAI may further democratize education in the developing world, potentially widening the pool of STEM majors.
And future governments may be forced to expand their funding of the basic sciences and even startups to offset the future decline in venture and institutional capital.
Share your ideas—pro or con—in the comments section!

Actionable trend insights as human and financial capital shortages limit innovation

For entrepreneurs: Based on the hypothesis described above, entrepreneurs may be incentivized to pursue truly innovative projects sooner rather than later before VC and institutional investment funds begin to contract by the 2030s. Alternatively, more conservative entrepreneurs may prefer to proactively prioritize new business creation around mature or semi-mature high-tech fields, including AI, digitized agriculture, modular nuclear reactors, biotech / genetic editing, and space tech.
For corporate innovators: As the pool of young, skilled workers shrinks, companies may explore investing in comprehensive in-house training programs. With less capital available for new experimental projects, firms may increase their rates of acquiring startups or smaller companies that have managed to innovate in niche areas. Labor-saving AI and robots will represent an increasing budget item over the 2030s-40s for organizations looking to grow in competitive labor markets.
For public sector innovators: Governments worldwide may be forced to expand their influence and funding of the private sector to keep innovation and productivity metrics on an upward trajectory. Government innovation and R&D agencies may see their budgets expand over the coming decades to support domestic companies with grants and tax incentives that fund research and development. Given the forecasted demographic shifts, several industries may experience labor shortages. Here, governments can heavily subsidize college and technical training schools to train (or retrain) a shrinking labor force toward domestically vital industries in need.
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Outside curiosities

The AI selfie trend is escalating as Snapchat offers its new feature, "Dreams," which transforms any boring selfie into a generative AI masterpiece.
Tired of cleaning your toilet? This robot is here to end your suffering.
And speaking of robots, this one is so precise it can “operate” on an egg.
Want to know what it looks like for a fancy French angelfish to undergo a CT scan? Here you go.