The Futures - No. 23

From Quantumrun

Sep 18, 2023

Source: Den of Geek / Photo: Warner Bros. Pictures

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about the race to commercialize the Moon, loneliness and the rising popularity of AI companions, China released its official chatbot, and scientists using gene editing to make cancer cells healthy again.

Future signals to watch

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- Also, RE YouTube, plans are underway to produce regular long-form trend insights videos. We’ll keep you posted on our progress over the months ahead ;)
Forrester anticipates AI will replace 30 percent of jobs in seven years and urges companies to reskill their employees in AI skills (like prompt engineering).
Scientists transformed skeletal-muscle cancer cells into healthy muscle cells using the CRISPR gene editing tool.
Seoul is launching its Climate Card unlimited transit pass next year, aiming to promote sustainable traveling and help residents struggling with escalating costs of living.
Deloitte’s latest consumer survey reports that 46 percent of US consumers cite the lack of public charging as their main concern in buying an electric vehicle.
Chinese tech company Baidu launches ERNIE Bot, China’s answer to ChatGPT.
A lithium deposit discovered in a volcano along the Nevada-Oregon (US) border may be the largest lithium deposit in the world ever. This could be a big win for the ongoing effort to reduce prices for green tech, including EVs.

The Moon is the next goldmine

The race to commercialize the Moon is heating up globally. Russia and India launched missions in late August 2023 to explore the Moon's south pole, a region rich in water, a vital resource for future lunar habitats. Between Russia's Luna-25 and India's Chandrayaan-3 missions, only India succeeded, landing a mobile vehicle to analyze the lunar soil and rocks. Japan is also entering the race with its Slim mission targeting the Moon's equatorial zones. Meanwhile, China plans to establish a Moon-Earth Economic Zone to generate productivity worth USD $10 trillion annually by 2050.

The US remains focused on its Artemis program, aiming to send the first woman and Black astronaut to the Moon by December 2025. The Artemis Accords, signed by 28 countries, seek to ensure the Moon's resources remain accessible to all signatories. Meanwhile, NASA is collaborating with the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) on the LunA-10 project, aligning with national strategies to foster commercial and international participation in developing a lunar economy within a decade.

The concept of mining the Moon, termed the "lunar gold rush," is becoming a focal point with potential resources like Helium-3, which could be used for nuclear energy and rare earth elements, essential in various industries, including technology and healthcare. While the specifics of lunar mining remain largely speculative, NASA intends to initiate mining operations on the Moon within this decade, partnering with commercial entities for excavation and exploration, such as Lunar Outpost, TransAstra, and AstroForge.

Actionable trend insights as the race to commercialize the Moon intensifies

For entrepreneurs: Space is typically a capital-intensive industry to enter, even with the price declines of launching payloads into space seen over the past 10 years (thanks to SpaceX). Without significant VC funding, entrepreneurs interested in space are best served by:
- Offering specialized consulting services for larger organizations interested in space investments,
- Manufacturing specialized parts or equipment for larger space & aerospace companies,
- Or even facilitating space-based research/science experiments inside specialized satellites launched into space by larger rocket companies.
For corporate innovators: Resource extraction companies can explore partnerships with space and aerospace companies to explore adapting their technologies for future lunar extraction projects. Logistics companies can explore similar partnerships to develop new processes that can effectively coordinate resource transfer supply chains from lunar surfaces to terrestrial factories.
For public sector innovators: The public sector could foster the growth of the lunar economy by offering grants for research and development in lunar technologies, including funding projects that explore sustainable habitat development, resource extraction, and space agriculture. To prepare the next generation for the opportunities the lunar economy will offer, the public sector could invest in space education initiatives, including developing curricula focused on space science, engineering, and law. Schools and universities could provide courses and degrees specializing in these fields, preparing students for careers in the space and lunar economy—especially since there is currently a space industry workforce shortage.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

A study published in PLOS Climate suggests that by 2050, improvements in farming technology and methods could lead to the yearly elimination of 13 billion tons of carbon emissions.
An Oxford Economics survey discovered that 36% of the companies surveyed identify geopolitical conflicts as their topmost risk — including the China-Taiwan and Russia-NATO situation.
Deloitte takes a detailed look at how digital biomarkers can fast-track precision medicine.
Bain reports on the aging workforce in several developed countries, with individuals aged 55 years and above making up over 25 percent of the labor force by 2031.

Can AI companions cure the loneliness epidemic?

In recent years, the use of AI companions to address loneliness has surged, with many turning to chatbots for companionship and mental health support. These digital entities, powered by large language models (LLMs), can mimic human behavior more closely than ever before, offering a level of interaction that is increasingly indistinguishable from human conversation. While they are not a substitute for professional psychological counseling, they have shown potential in reducing social isolation, notably among elderly adults.

The market has seen a rise in platforms offering AI companions, such as Replika, which allows users to create and build relationships with a personalized AI, and CarynAI, a voice chatbot offering virtual companionship at a fee. These platforms, along with others like Snapchat's MyAI, have garnered a substantial user base, with people turning to them for friendship, mentorship, and entertainment. The interactions span various topics, including pop culture news, sports, and more, offering users a space to form connections and find a listening ear anytime.

The potential applications of AI companions are evolving. Beyond serving as friends or romantic partners, they could further be developed into tutors, coaches, or mentors. Moreover, technological advancements might enable these AI companions to interact with humans through live phone and video calls, even holograms, offering a more immersive and realistic experience. (Think Joi in Blade Runner 2049.) However, it remains to be seen whether LLMs can evolve to a point where they can sufficiently address humans’ complex emotional needs.

Actionable trend insights as AI companionship apps/platforms increase

For entrepreneurs: The costs of participating in the emerging AI revolution are falling rapidly year over year. Falling barriers to entry can enable entrepreneurs to integrate AI companions into a wide range of niche wellness and companionship apps designed to foster emotional well-being. For instance, an app could feature an AI companion that helps users navigate their emotional landscapes through guided conversations, helping to foster a sense of acceptance and understanding. AI companions could also serve as hosts for virtual events, facilitating interactions and helping to break the ice among participants. These AI hosts could be programmed to have personalities that match the event's theme, creating a fun and engaging atmosphere.
For corporate innovators: Companies can integrate these AI entities into corporate communication platforms, where they help in organizing team-building activities, encouraging positive communication, and even mediating conflicts by suggesting constructive feedback. Corporations can also initiate mentorship programs where AI companions assist in employees' professional development. For example, a young professional aspiring to move into a leadership role could be paired with an AI mentor that provides them with resources on leadership development and even facilitates networking opportunities by connecting them with the right people within the organization.
For public sector innovators: The public sector can leverage AI companions in public mental health initiatives, using them to provide companionship services to senior citizens, people with disabilities, and those suffering from social isolation. The public sector can also integrate AI companions into the education system, using them to provide personalized learning support to students. For instance, a school district could invest in AI companions individualized to each student, providing tailored explanations and homework feedback to improve learning outcomes.

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Outside curiosities

This is what happens when people use car features in ways manufacturers don’t plan for.
This jagged residential building in the Netherlands hosts smart climate-controlled ceilings, solar panels, and electric car chargers.
This man straight-up tried to cross the Atlantic Ocean using a giant hamster wheel. (The Coast Guard stopped him).
Scientists think there might be a hidden planet hiding in our solar system.
Two construction workers smashed a hole through the Great Wall of China. The reason? They wanted a shortcut to a construction site 👀.