The Futures - No. 24

From Quantumrun

Sep 26, 2023

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about the rise of the caretaker generation, the new insurance models driven by climate change, potential human trials of artificial wombs, and the tradwife trend becoming the new cultural war.

Future signals to watch

US researchers are seeking approval for human trials of artificial wombs to study a device that can potentially increase the survival of preterm babies.
The renewable terawatt era begins. Clean Energy Associates forecasts that by the end of 2024, top Chinese producers will have expanded their worldwide solar module production to 1 terawatt.
According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, 51 percent of administrative regions in South Korea are at risk of losing their populations completely.
California Institute of Technology (Caltech) researchers have effectively shown that it is possible to transmit power wirelessly in space and send a measurable amount of energy back to Earth.
The labor shortage has become so severe in Japan that four in 10 companies are hiring people aged 70 and over.
- As a result, grandparent leave is becoming a new job benefit.
According to the International Monetary Fund, by 2060, the number of deaths resulting from conflicts could rise by 14 percent in nations experiencing severe temperatures.
This collection of devastating global flood footage that happened within a week is a chilling reminder that climate change consequences can worsen.
Friendly reminder to join us on YouTube & Instagram & TikTok 🙂

An aging global population is creating a caretaker generation

In many countries, the number of senior citizens is growing rapidly, creating a situation where a smaller group of young workers will have to support a much larger group of retirees. For instance, by 2050, in some parts of East Asia and Europe, nearly 40 percent of the population will be 65 or older, a huge increase compared to 2023. To put that number in perspective, it’s almost twice the share of senior citizens in Florida, the retirement capital of the US.

This demographic trend increases the high pressure on young workers to financially support the older generation. This support might materialize in the form of more and higher taxes to ensure that seniors have the pensions and healthcare they need. This support could also mean that younger people will have less money to spend on themselves, which could slow economic growth over the decades ahead.

Source: Our World in Data, United Nations

Addressing these challenges may force countries to rethink many of their social safety net policies. Retirement ages might have to increase, and pension systems might need to change to ensure they can support a larger number of seniors. This won't be easy, as we've seen in places like France, where people protested against raising the retirement age.

Meanwhile, caregiving duties are increasing, but not the number of caregivers. For example, for every older adult in the US in 2019, there were seven possible family members available to provide care. However, projections for 2030 indicate that this ratio will decrease to just four potential family caregivers for each older individual.

Actionable trend insights as the global population ages and caregiver demand surges

For entrepreneurs: The next three decades will see explosive growth in the senior care and assisted living sector. Entrepreneurs may find opportunities in building out franchised assisted living facilities or managing networks of freelance nurses and caregivers to serve seniors and people with disabilities. For tech-focused entrepreneurs, numerous caregiving innovations will experience widening adoption, including AI-powered health monitoring systems that can be integrated into smart homes and in-home robots to assist with chores and human mobility needs.
For corporate innovators: Companies can introduce employee benefits that cover elderly care services, including access to premium caregiving facilities or home care services. This move also opens up a new market segment for corporations to explore partnerships and business opportunities in the elderly care sector. Corporations can also invest in researching and developing affordable assistive devices such as walking, hearing, and visual aids to support their older workers. They can also evaluate their policies and develop options for older workers who want to delay their retirement, including providing extended or modified healthcare insurance.
For public sector innovators: The public sector can initiate community skill development programs where young individuals are trained to take up caregiving roles. Governments can foster partnerships with private players to develop state-of-the-art elderly care facilities. These facilities can offer various services, from healthcare to recreational activities, ensuring a holistic approach to elderly care. Providing mentorship opportunities and social programs for senior citizens can also encourage their continued participation in and contribution to society.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

Powerful report findings documented how consultants using Generative AI were significantly more productive (they completed 12.2% more tasks on average, and completed tasks 25.1% more quickly) and produced significantly higher quality results (more than 40% higher quality compared to a control group).
Scientific American discusses the new air conditioning technologies being developed as global warming heats up.
According to McKinsey’s The State of Organizations 2023 report, over 50 percent of business leaders think their firms are well prepared for external shocks, while two-thirds believe their companies are too complex and inefficient.
This report analyzes the emerging trends among artificial intelligence/machine learning startups. (AI Ops is becoming the new DevOps).
According to Deloitte’s 2023 Digital Media Trends report, 70 percent of surveyed consumers subscribe to one or more content creators, and a quarter of them have found new products or services through these creators.
Deloitte’s Connected Consumer Survey 2023 discovered that for those with smartphones that are less than a year old, there was an increase in the proportion of 5G functionality from 56 percent in 2021 to 77 percent in 2023.

Climate change is driving new insurance models

Source: Smithsonian Magazine / Video: Sam Nolan

The current climate scenario, marked by unprecedented heatwaves and storms, has escalated insurance claims globally, with the first half of 2023 witnessing natural disaster losses amounting to USD $35 billion, well above the decade's average. Similarly, a new study from First Street Foundation suggests that the insurance costs for 39 million American homes are lower than they should be, given the real climate dangers these properties are exposed to.

This growing climate risk is forcing businesses to think creatively and consider parametric insurance despite its limitations, including covering only one risk component. This type of insurance pays out when specific weather conditions, defined by set parameters, are met.

Source: Council on Foreign Relations, NOAA

This kind of policy is straightforward, relying on data from third parties to determine whether conditions for a payout are reached, such as a certain wind speed or floodwater height. For example, a hotel owner can opt for this insurance to cover potential flood damages. However, parametric insurance doesn't cover near misses and only addresses single, discrete risks.

Nonetheless, despite being tied to specific weather events, these policies offer flexibility in using the payout, be it for wage payment or restocking inventory. The tool also provides coverage for areas a business doesn't control. For example, a delivery business might get insurance linked to the operation of the airport it frequently uses.

While parametric insurance remains a niche product, the current market conditions characterized by high insurance prices and insurance companies withdrawing from specific markets are forcing businesses to think creatively and consider it as a viable option. Another potential policy is incentivizing climate-related risk prevention, such as offering lower premiums to policyholders implementing measures like early warning systems or anti-flood doors.

Actionable trend insights as climate change forces new insurance business models

For entrepreneurs: They can establish startups that focus on developing construction and renovation innovations that help existing home and building owners adapt to extreme weather events. Likewise, resilient housing designs can be developed to enable new buildings to withstand extreme weather events, qualifying for lower premiums on parametric insurance policies. Entrepreneurs with a background in finance can develop platforms for trading in weather derivatives, financial instruments that derive their value from weather events. This platform would allow businesses to hedge against weather-related risks, offering a new avenue for risk management.
For corporate innovators: Large corporations can establish divisions dedicated to weather risk mitigation, reducing the company's exposure to weather-related risks and negotiating better terms with insurers. Companies involved in manufacturing can develop programs to enhance the resilience of their supply chains against extreme weather events. This resilience could include identifying alternative suppliers, establishing weather-resistant storage facilities, and implementing technology solutions to monitor and manage weather-related disruptions more effectively.
For public sector innovators: The public sector can foster partnerships with private companies to develop infrastructure and housing building codes that are resilient to climate change. Governments can also collaborate with the insurance industry to better develop and regulate new climate-related insurance models. A federal agency can be tasked with assessing/scoring the climate risk of various regions domestically, providing insurers with the grading data they can use to develop climate-ready insurance pricing nationally.

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Outside curiosities

Apple is back with another ad that entertains like an office sitcom; this time it’s their “sustainability report.”
Tradwife (traditional wife) content is at the center of a new culture war, as experts debate whether it's a cultural reset or a step back for women's rights.
Liquor brand Inverroche created limited-edition packaging that doubles as a home for solitary bees.
TikTok is developing a new way to label content made through generative AI.
These two Alaskan bears raided a Krispy Kreme doughnut van. (Honestly, can’t blame them).