The Futures - No. 25

From Quantumrun

Oct 03, 2023

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about AI outperforming human creativity, the increasing power of worker unions, the potential commercialization of robot workers, and the machine learning model that can quickly and accurately identify genetic mutations.

Future signals to watch

Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind, envisions the future of AI as interactive bots that go beyond conversation to actively complete tasks by coordinating with other software and people.
- This could mean that the era of AI personal assistants is upon us.
Agility Robotics plans to ramp up its RoboFab facility, aiming to produce over 10,000 units of its advanced bipedal robot, Digit, annually. (Are we finally in an I, Robot world?)
A recently developed chemical substance has demonstrated potential in preventing bone loss caused by microgravity in mice aboard the International Space Station.
A study from China’s Tsinghua University shows that AI can assist urban planners by creating more efficient spatial layouts much quicker than humans.
Data shows that by 2024 in Europe, 2025 in China, 2026 in the US, and 2027 in India, the cost of buying a battery electric vehicle is expected to become cheaper than that of a comparable gas or diesel car.
Startup Avalo aims to accelerate and reduce the cost of crop breeding by using machine learning to quickly identify the genetic factors behind complex traits like heat tolerance.
Vestas's giant 15 MW offshore wind turbine, installed at Denmark's Østerild National test center, achieved its full power rating in April and generated 363 megawatt-hours of energy in a single day, setting a world record.
Google DeepMind has launched AlphaMissense, a machine-learning model that can quickly analyze genetic mutations and predict their likelihood of causing disease with 90% accuracy, outperforming current tools.

Can AI really become more creative than humans?

As the microchip brought the marginal cost of compute to zero, and the Internet brought the marginal cost of distribution to zero, generative AI promises to bring the marginal cost of creation to zero. — Martin Casado and Sarah Wang from the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.

Two recent studies tried to answer the hotly debated topic of AI outperforming human creativity. The first is a July 2023 study published by the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. The results were fascinating (and a little bit humbling). Researchers discovered that ChatGPT outperforms human-generated business ideas in terms of the likelihood of these ideas being purchased.

Other interesting findings include:

The average purchase probability for ideas from ChatGPT is 46.8 percent, compared to 40.4 percent for human ideas.
This probability even reaches 49.3 percent when ChatGPT is seeded with good ideas.
Most notably, ChatGPT dominates the top 10 percent of all ideas, contributing 87.5 percent of the top 40 ideas in a pool of 400.
Its best idea had an 11 percent higher purchase probability than the best human-generated idea.

A more recent study published in Nature supplemented these results. When comparing AI chatbots and humans on a divergent thinking task (generating many ideas or solutions), AI chatbots generally outperformed humans in both average and maximum scores for creativity. This was true for ratings by human raters who didn't know some responses were AI-generated.

However, AI did not consistently outscore the best human performers, indicating that highly creative individuals can still compete with AI. The study suggests that humans often produced more common or low-quality responses, possibly due to limitations in executive functions like working memory and attention control. Despite these findings, the study acknowledges limitations, such as restricted observations from each chatbot and the inability to fully understand the creative processes of both humans and AI, emphasizing the need for future research.

Actionable trend insights as AI generates more creative ideas than humans

For entrepreneurs: They can use various generative AI tools to brainstorm unique ideas for products, services, and business models that target existing market gaps. Emerging AI tools are being engineered to scan consumer reviews, social media mentions, and market trends to identify unmet needs in a specific industry. Such tools could then suggest a business model, complete with revenue streams and a marketing strategy, to address these gaps. Entrepreneurs would be able to launch businesses that have a higher likelihood of finding a receptive audience, reducing the risk of starting a new venture.
For corporate innovators: Companies can use AI to identify potential M&A targets that may not be obvious through traditional methods. An AI algorithm could analyze market trends, patent filings, and even employees' skill sets at different companies to suggest potential acquisition targets that would offer strategic advantages. Such analysis tools would allow corporations to make more informed decisions and potentially discover opportunities otherwise overlooked.
For public sector innovators: Government agencies can use AI to simulate the outcomes of different policy decisions, considering a more comprehensive range of variables like economic indicators, public sentiment, and global events. For example, before implementing a new tax law, an AI model could predict its impact on different income groups, small businesses, and the economy. Such forecasting tools would allow for more nuanced policy-making that considers the needs and reactions of diverse stakeholders.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

Foreign Policy takes a closer look at the worsening global food crisis and its potential to increase geopolitical instabilities.
This is a fascinating essay on “longtermism” (ethical practice and commitment) and what that means for future humans.
The Futures School discusses the future of foresight, its limitations, and what futures thinkers need to change.
Superflux Studio presents a speculative proposal on “The Ecological Intelligence Agency,” exploring how AI might shape future environmental policies.
Deloitte has released its research on the potential of the Industrial Metaverse to super-charge the manufacturing industry.

Worker unions’ influence grows as labor force shrinks

On September 15, 2023, for the first time, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union simultaneously launched a strike against all three of America's unionized car manufacturers: General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis. This is a significant event that could have far-reaching economic and political consequences. While manufacturing isn't the largest sector in the US, auto manufacturing is its most substantial part. A strike could halt this sector, causing severe economic setbacks. For instance, a three-week strike could push the US into a recession, disrupting American automakers' launch of new electric vehicle lines.

Politically, for the past three decades, unions have felt marginalized due to shifts in economic policies, such as globalization. Trade agreements like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) accelerated the decline in union membership, which moved jobs to non-union states and other countries.

However, unions are regaining their influence. This resurgence is partly because the US (and most of the developed and developing world) is facing a labor shortage. For the next two decades, this demographic scarcity will give workers and, by extension, unions more leverage in wage negotiations and political influence. (At least until humanoid robot workers advance further.)

Moreover, global issues like conflicts in East Asia and Western Europe could increase the need for industrial workers in the US, who are more likely to be unionized. Therefore, the ongoing negotiations between auto workers and employers are not an isolated incident but a sign of the growing role of unions in American economic and political life. On September 27, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) reached a deal with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), ending a five-month strike and winning important protections, particularly against the use of AI.

Actionable trend insights as worker unions gain more influence and leverage

For entrepreneurs: They can develop software or platforms specifically designed to meet the needs of unions, such as membership management systems or negotiation simulators. Moreover, given the global labor shortage, there's a growing need for skilled workers in union-heavy sectors. Entrepreneurs could establish training centers that offer fast-track courses in high-demand professions. Meanwhile, as advancements in AI and robotics progress, it is also likely that future startups and small businesses will operate comfortably with smaller numbers of workers, further reducing the likelihood of unionization outside of larger enterprises.
For corporate innovators: It's crucial for companies to have specialized departments that can effectively negotiate and maintain good relationships with unions. Corporations can also preemptively address labor shortages by investing in training programs that upskill their current employees, making them more valuable and less likely to leave. For instance, a healthcare corporation could offer nursing assistants the opportunity to become certified nurses, a profession that is often unionized and offers better pay and benefits.
For public sector innovators: Governments can collaborate with private companies to create specialized training programs for unionized industries. For example, a city government could partner with local construction firms to offer apprenticeships that lead to union jobs, addressing labor shortages in the industry. Given the increasing influence of unions, the public sector should consider policies encouraging their growth, such as tax incentives for companies that engage positively with unions. For example, a state could offer tax breaks to manufacturing companies that support collective bargaining agreements, making the industry more attractive for workers.

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Outside curiosities

Wired explores how the Internet is becoming a girl’s world.
What would Star Wars look like if it was filmed in the 1920s? See generative AI’s reimagination of this.
This French architect is transforming used clothes into sustainable bricks.
The increasing popularity of the anti-vaccine movement in the US is hampering the Biden Administration’s public health initiatives.
Danish artist Jens Haaning submitted empty canvases to Kunsten Museum and called these artworks "Take the Money and Run.” (A local court has ordered him to repay the museum, which he is appealing).