The Futures - No. 31

AI and social media fuelling propaganda / Electric vehicles sales underperforming / A treatment to aid space exploration

Nov 14, 2023

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about how AI and social media are accelerating disinformation, electric vehicle sales not performing as expected, Germany relying on robots to address its labor shortage, and a new treatment that can help astronauts during long-term missions.

Future signals to watch

With Germany’s Federal Employment Agency anticipating the workforce to shrink by 7 million by 2035, German businesses are banking on robots to address the labor gap caused by retiring Baby Boomers. According to the International Federation of Robotics, Germany is already the largest robot market in Europe.
The University of Washington is set to introduce a pioneering treatment for kidney stones without the use of anesthesia. This system will also enable astronauts to undertake Mars missions since they have a higher risk of developing kidney stones.
Researchers have created a physical neural network that dynamically learns and retains memory, similar to brain neurons.
Solar mini-grids are proving to be an effective and low-cost solution to establish fossil-free energy in rural sub-Saharan Africa.
German researchers have developed a system that can convert hydrogen to methanol, enabling energy to be stored more efficiently.
Mississippi State University scientists created a robot that can autonomously harvest cotton.
As part of a broader effort to embrace renewable energy, 13 US states have begun deploying subterranean thermal energy systems to lower the carbon footprint of buildings.
This next-generation virtual reality (VR) game room demonstrates the future of entertainment, possibly making escape rooms a thing of the past.

Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Avatar: The Last Airbender // X → ChatGPT vs freelancers // Reddit → Urinal checkup // TikTok → Zoom pranks return // Instagram → Cotton architecture // Spotify → “Now and Then”

💡 Watch Quantumrun’s trend videos on Linkedin & YouTube & Instagram & TikTok

💻 AI-generated content + social media = The perfect disinformation system

Source: The Guardian / Photograph: Joan Wong

In the wake of the Israel-Hamas conflict, social media has become a chaotic space rife with misinformation and disinformation. Platforms initially prized for delivering news are now struggling with the rapid spread of unverified and false content, ranging from distressing imagery to unfounded conspiracy theories. Taylor Owen, a leading voice in media ethics, highlights this issue’s roots in the incentivized behavior social media platforms encourage.

This trend toward engagement over accuracy has resulted in an ecosystem where emotionally charged content dominates, altering public perception and discourse. The drive for immediate information has outpaced the capacity for reliable reporting. Furthermore, the proliferation of niche communities may worsen polarization, as they tend to reinforce existing views.

Source: University of Oxford, Reuters Institute

The evolution of platforms like TikTok presents new challenges and opportunities in content curation and narrative control. Generative AI-powered content production can also produce and publish text and visual misinformation at scale. The cumulative effect of these trends is a media landscape that is less reliable in informing the public about unfolding events. Worse, the debate over free speech in the US has intensified, particularly on college campuses, where students criticizing Israel's actions in response to Hamas terrorism have faced revoked job offers and public shaming.

According to a 2023 study published in New Media & Society, to tackle the spread of false information, there's a growing focus on strategies like stricter content rules and removing financial incentives for those who break content posting rules. However, there's a broader conversation to be had about how digital platforms should be run and if they should serve more as community spaces/utilities rather than just profit-driven entities, pointing to the need for innovative research to develop a healthier media environment.

Actionable trend insights as AI and social media drive disinformation/misinformation

For entrepreneurs
- Entrepreneurs can customize the latest generative AI innovations to master content assessment and enable content moderation at scale. Unverified posts about news can be auto-tagged with news reference links from various news publications.
- Entrepreneurs can develop systems where content creators can register their articles, videos, and other media forms on a blockchain, providing an immutable record of creation and edits.
For corporate innovators
- Educational tech (EdTech) companies can integrate AI-driven analysis into their platforms that assess the credibility of research sources used in course materials. For instance, an online course provider could offer a feature where students submit papers, and the system highlights claims that lack credible backing, suggesting peer-reviewed sources or more reliable information, fostering a habit of integrity in information usage.
- Firms can create augmented reality (AR) apps that overlay digital information onto the real world to fact-check signage, advertisements, and even spoken claims during live events. By processing the textual and audio inputs in real time, AR systems could provide users with immediate contextual data, pointing out inconsistencies or false information.
For public sector innovators
- Local governments can employ AI to create virtual agents interacting with citizens on social media, providing factual information and counteracting misinformation directly in community forums. These agents would be programmed to recognize misinformation patterns and intervene with sourced facts, much like a digital community officer.
- For example, during a public health crisis, these virtual agents could disseminate verified medical advice on social media, effectively countering false home remedies or prevention methods that often circulate during such events.
- Governments can fund media education courses in high schools and universities, as well as fund research studies on how best to moderate public discourse in the emerging age of AI-generated disinformation.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

Ars Technica discusses how the crossroads of geopolitics and lunar missions are enabling the successful return of astronauts to the Moon.
Deloitte explains why governments need to collaborate with private entities to address major social challenges, such as climate change and access to heating.
Wired takes a deep dive into the future medical professionals who are being trained alongside robots.
According to an Indeed survey, 93% of stay-at-home moms are anticipating challenges should they return to the workforce.
This tracker collates all Transparency Reports from technology companies in compliance with the EU’s Digital Services Act, which requires these companies to disclose how they use AI/algorithms.

🚗 Outside of China, electric vehicle sales are slowing down

Source: Axios / Photograph: Sarah Grillo

Electric vehicle (EV) sales are decelerating as major automakers like Ford and GM delay plans for new electric models and facilities. Tesla is also scaling back, signaling a possible suspension of its Mexico gigafactory. From an environmental standpoint, the supposed benefits of EVs are contested, given the reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation and the carbon-intensive processes involved in producing EVs, primarily in China. Furthermore, EV manufacturing requires significant amounts of materials like copper and lithium, which are scarce and energy-intensive to extract.

The high cost of EVs remains a barrier, with even the least expensive models costing around USD $10,000 more than gas-powered equivalents. This price disparity, coupled with concerns over reliability, range, and the scarcity of charging stations, is causing consumer hesitation. The automotive industry is noticing the trend, with EV inventory outpacing demand, leading to heavy discounts and financial losses for companies.

In contrast, companies like China-based BYD and Tesla are making affordable EVs profitably, challenging traditional manufacturers. Large Chinese automakers like XPeng, Nio, and Li Auto experienced surging EV sales in September 2023. Yet, despite tax incentives, the transition to EVs globally is less appealing with current lower gas prices.

Concerns over charging costs, convenience, and vehicle depreciation, as well as the practicality of hybrids, are influencing consumer preferences. While the EV market is growing, it is not at the anticipated pace, leading to an adjustment in automakers' manufacturing and marketing strategies to align with realistic demand.

Actionable trend insights as EV sales slow down

For entrepreneurs
- They could develop platforms that facilitate the peer-to-peer rental of EV charging stations. As the number of EVs grows despite the sales slowdown, the need for charging options continues to rise.
- An app or service that allows private individuals to rent out their home charging stations to other EV drivers could capitalize on existing infrastructure, similar to how Airbnb utilizes private homes for accommodation.
For corporate innovators
- Companies can diversify their logistics fleet with hybrid vehicles, which offer a balance between traditional fuel and electric power. By adopting a "hybrid-first" policy, companies can reduce their carbon footprint and fuel costs without entirely relying on the EV market.
- They could also invest in dual-fuel technology research, potentially leading the next wave of sustainable transportation solutions that are not as reliant on a dense charging station network. This option may be more reliable in nations with less developed national electricity grids.
For public sector innovators
- Government entities can incentivize research and development in alternative energy storage technologies beyond lithium-ion batteries. With concerns about the environmental impact of EV production and material scarcity, funding innovative energy solutions like solid-state batteries could be critical.
- This approach would stimulate the growth of an ecosystem of alternative energy vehicles, offering consumers and businesses a broader range of environmentally friendly transportation options and potentially reinvigorating the green vehicle sector.

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Outside curiosities

Watch this pianist regain his ability to play with all 10 fingers using bionic gloves.
Text-to-image generator Runway released the newest version of its text-to-video and image-to-video software, and the results are stunning.
This Korean graphic designer envisioned what a dystopian supermarket would look like, and it’s terrifying.
Meta and Ray-Ban just released their augmented reality (AR) smart glasses 😎.
They just keep coming. Here’s another Workplace Trend: Lazy girl jobs.