The Futures - No. 35

The rise of progressive authoritarianism / AI accelerating scientific discoveries / The AI model earning some serious cash

Dec 12, 2023

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about the rise of progressive authoritarianism, how AI is going to super-charge science, the first plane to run on 100% sustainable fuel, and the AI influencer that’s earning $11,000 a month.

Future signals to watch

Virgin Atlantic flew from Heathrow (London) to JFK airport (New York) using 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) made from waste cooking oil and animal fat.
Over five decades since Apollo's last mission, the US aims to land a spacecraft on the Moon on January 25, 2024, led by Astrobotic, the first-ever private company to potentially touch down on the Moon.
- Also, the Italian Space Agency and Thales Alenia Space are developing the Multi-Purpose Habitat (MPH), potentially the first permanent human dwelling on the Moon.
Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker BYD produced 200,000 low-cost ($11,500 USD) Seagull EVs in the first eight months of 2023, becoming the fastest-selling electric car in China.
Researchers discovered that California’s Salton Sea contains 18 million metric tons of lithium, also known as the white gold of the manufacturing industry.
In a recent media roundtable, the Pentagon clarified that the Replicator initiative focuses on swiftly adopting and delivering technology rather than mass purchasing drones.
Spanish influencer agency The Clueless created the first Spanish AI model, Aitana Lopez, which has been raking in $11,000 a month in endorsements. The agency said they decided to create Aitana because they found human models difficult and unreliable to work with.

Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Grand Theft Auto VI // X → Spotify Wrapped // Reddit → Tell us what you really feel // TikTok → Creators opening TikTok Shops // Instagram → Meta celebrity chatbot // Spotify → “Labios Mordidos”

💡 Watch Quantumrun’s trend videos on Linkedin & YouTube & Instagram & TikTok

🌏 The rise of progressive authoritarianism

Classical liberalism in the West, notably in the US, faces significant challenges from both right and left-wing populism. This ideology, advocating for individual dignity, open markets, and limited government, confronts erosion from conflicting political forces. Right-wing populism, as seen in governments led by Trump, Erdoğan, and others, deviates from scientific and legal norms, leaning towards tribalism and conspiracy theories. This shift not only undermines democratic institutions but also prioritizes force over reasoned debate, destabilizing the framework of rational discourse.

Conversely, a faction of the American left, deeply embedded in academic culture, adopts an illiberal approach. Focused on identity politics, this group enforces ideological conformity, resorting to tactics like no-platforming and cancel culture. Though they share certain ideals with classical liberals, such as equality irrespective of race or sexuality, their methodology sharply diverges. These far leftists aim to mandate equity and control societal outcomes, often at the cost of individual freedoms, personal accomplishment, and the richness of diverse perspectives.

The greatest risk for classical liberals lies in downplaying the danger they face. Many conservatives among them tend to form convenient alliances with populists, ignoring the fundamental discrepancies. Meanwhile, liberals with a leftist inclination often concentrate on their shared goals with social justice advocates, thinking that intolerance can be a catalyst for change. In Canada, for instance, such liberal leanings have led to noticeably restrictive legislation.

Political analysts think the solution is bridging, which goes beyond merely being a persuasion tactic or a means to "win." It requires a nuanced approach that recognizes the complexity of individual identities and avoids oversimplifying people as solely defined by either individual traits or group affiliations. Effective bridging transcends binary choices, like focusing solely on democracy or marginalized groups' rights; it involves using these differences to collectively protect vulnerable individuals and work towards more inclusive and just social structures.

Actionable trend insights as progressive authoritarianism gains more influence

For entrepreneurs
- Creating online platforms and in-person communities that prioritize user privacy and democratic discourse can fill a significant market gap.
- As concerns over data privacy and the manipulation of social media grow, entrepreneurs have the opportunity to develop new platforms or tools that safeguard user data, promote transparency, and foster open, respectful communication.
For corporate innovators
- They may have to hire or set up departments dedicated to political and geopolitical analysis to help their respective organization’s legal and MarComm departments navigate the diverse political cultures they may operate in globally.
- Investing in unbiased, fact-based journalism and content is crucial. In the face of rising authoritarianism, corporations can fund or partner with media outlets, content creators, or platforms dedicated to factual reporting, investigative journalism, and diverse perspectives.
For public sector innovators
- Implementing critical thinking, media literacy, and basic civics studies programs in schools can be a powerful tool. Government education departments could introduce or expand curricula that teach students to critically analyze media sources, recognize biased information, and understand the mechanisms of propaganda and misinformation.
- Expanding and strengthening government bodies and agencies that can operate more independently from the influence of political parties may be a helpful buffer against the rise of populist politicians.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

Deloitte breaks down the 2024 outlook for the aerospace and defense industry, with geopolitical instability potentially driving the increased demand for products.
A Stanford University economist discusses why return to office is “dead.”
The World Counts takes a deep dive into the meat industry, whose consumption is projected to reach 570 million tons by 2050, double the 2008 level.
Turing Award Winner and computer scientist Yann LeCun argues that we should not be afraid of AI, as its intelligence does not aim to dominate but to serve/collaborate.
The case for treating climate change’s $150-billion economic loss like a national crisis.

🔬 AI is about to fast-track scientific progress

Source: University of Michigan / Artist: Julia Lubas

The debate around artificial intelligence (AI) often centers on potential dangers like algorithmic bias and job loss. However, some experts, including DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis and Facebook Chief AI Scientist Yann LeCun, see AI's potential to accelerate scientific discovery in medicine, climate science, and green technology. Historically, new tools and approaches have spurred scientific innovation, such as the microscope in the 17th century and research laboratories in the 19th century.

AI is now being integrated across various scientific fields, aiding in tasks like drug discovery and data analysis. Two promising areas are literature-based discovery, which generates new hypotheses from existing scientific literature, and "robot scientists," which autonomously conduct experiments. However, the success of AI in transforming scientific practice depends on its acceptance and integration by human scientists.

DeepMind's AI tool, Graph Networks for Materials Exploration (GNoME), has discovered 2.2 million new crystals, including 380,000 stable materials potentially transformative for future technologies. These materials could enhance technologies like superconductors, supercomputers, and next-gen batteries. GNoME, a state-of-the-art graph neural network, uses structural and compositional pipelines for discovery. It expands humanity's knowledge of stable materials from 48,000 to 421,000. The tool's predictions, validated by Density Functional Theory, have already led to the experimental creation of 736 new structures.

Meanwhile, in 2019 and 2021, Massachusetts Institute of Technology scientists discovered two new antibiotics, halicin and abaucin, using an AI model to sift through millions of compounds. AI's role in scientific discovery extends beyond drug discovery to materials science, protein folding, and climate prediction. For example, technologies like AlphaFold have an advanced understanding of structural biology, potentially addressing long-term concerns, such as genetic therapies and breaking down single-use plastics.

Actionable trend insights as AI accelerates scientific progress

For entrepreneurs
- They can develop AI bots and robots for small and mid-sized science labs to help them improve their scientific productivity on par with labs that feature much larger research budgets.
- They can develop AI-powered platforms to monitor and analyze environmental data, providing insights for sustainable practices. For example, an AI system could analyze satellite imagery and environmental data to detect ecosystem changes, offering actionable information for conservation efforts.
For corporate innovators
- They can create internal task forces charged with exploring how to utilize next-gen AI and robotics to accelerate their R&D programs, either to expand the volume of experiments completed annually and/or to improve the depth of research conducted.
- Agricultural businesses can harness AI to advance plant breeding and crop optimization. By using AI to analyze genetic data and environmental conditions, companies can accelerate the discovery of plant varieties more resistant to diseases, pests, and climate extremes.
For public sector innovators
- Government agencies can use AI to draft legislation for a variety of public initiatives in a manner that considers complex variables and the needs of a large set of stakeholders. Such an application could accelerate the speed of legislation drafting and reduce the number of loopholes and unclear language that can occasionally pass readings.
- Governments can use AI algorithms to analyze patterns in healthcare data, social media, and environmental factors to foresee and mitigate the spread of infectious diseases. For example, an AI system could predict the outbreak of a new virus by analyzing trends in healthcare visits, changes in population movement, and environmental conditions.

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Outside curiosities

Yes, smart cities and smart glasses are cool, but have you seen a smart cow?
With the release of its AI musicmaker tool Dream Track, YouTube has unleashed something amazing but also frightening.
What are they even trying to build with the Tesla Cybertruck?
People are already terrified of how this technology might be used.
In case you’re still wondering if company loyalty is still a thing.