The Futures - No. 39

The aging and shrinking family / Rare earth minerals driving green mining / The promise of life in oceanic moons

Jan 23, 2024

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about family units shrinking and growing older, the green mining boom being driven by rare earth minerals, oceanic moons that might harbor life, and China’s BYD overtaking Tesla as the largest EV maker in the world.

Future signals to watch

Scientists believe that oceanic moons around planets like Jupiter and Saturn might host temperate, potentially habitable oceans, suggesting that such environments could be common in planet formation. This expands the potential for life beyond Earth, with moons like Ganymede, Callisto, and Titan harboring subsurface oceans.
Using AI and supercomputers, Microsoft researchers identified 18 promising candidates that could reduce lithium use in batteries (from 32 million potential materials) in under a week, a task that could have taken over 20 years with conventional lab techniques.
Novel approaches, including ocean-based solutions, are projected to contribute half of the required 10 GtCO2 (gigatonnes of carbon dioxide) removal by mid-century, escalating to an estimated 15 GtCO2 by century's end.
Betavolt Technology, a Beijing-based start-up, announced the creation of the world's first micro-atomic energy battery, utilizing nickel-63 isotope decay and a diamond semiconductor module for significant miniaturization and low production costs.
Toyota is experimenting with robots that could do household chores by copying humans.
The US Energy Information Administration anticipates a rise in utility-scale solar projects, forecasting an increase from 45 GWdc (gigawatt direct current) in 2024 to about 53 GWdc in 2025.
Aurora Innovation Inc., Kodiak Robotics Inc., and Gatik AI Inc. anticipate removing safety drivers from their software and sensor-guided trucks in 2024 after years of testing and hauling cargo for major companies.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, BYD surpassed Tesla to become the leading electric vehicle manufacturer. (Elon Musk said back in 2011 that BYD’s “technology is not very strong.”) The Chinese automaker focused on the mid-range market, which was key to its massive growth.

Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Spaceman // X → Yes, and? // Reddit → This horse running with his people // TikTok → Bookshelf wealth // Instagram → Living alone vloggers // Spotify → “act ii: date @ 8”

💡 Watch Quantumrun’s trend videos on Linkedin & YouTube & Instagram & TikTok

👪 Families are about to be fewer and older

Source: Tumblr / Video by Pixar Animation Studios

A December 2023 report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA (PNAS) looked into evolving family structures globally. The study focused on the total number of living relatives a person might have at different stages of their life and in different regions. It uses a measure of total family size that includes a wide range of relatives, such as great-grandparents, grandparents, siblings, and cousins.

The scientists noted an increase in the age of kinship networks, meaning individuals are likely to have older relatives as part of their family structure (especially in countries with younger populations). With smaller and older family networks, there's an anticipated increase in the burden of care for middle-aged individuals (also known as the Sandwich Generation).

Adults involved in multigenerational caregiving often face overwhelming stress, feeling constantly torn between the needs of various family members, including their own. Many live in households with complex medical and psychiatric needs. This situation often leads to a cultural and generational divide, as caregivers must navigate both digital and analog worlds, and sometimes act as intermediaries in family conflicts, especially when dealing with elderly relatives with conditions like dementia.

Despite these challenges, caregivers often find positives in their roles, such as acquiring new skills in legal and financial matters and forming deeper connections with family members. They appreciate the value of each day, recognizing the importance of their role in their family's lives. However, there is a shared concern about the extended responsibilities of caring for aging parents, with many feeling unprepared financially and emotionally for the intensity and duration of such care.

Actionable trend insights as family units shrink and grow older

For entrepreneurs

There will be a growing abundance of opportunities for local businesses and associations that can offer community-based socialization opportunities for the elderly to address loneliness and isolation. For example, a subscription-based service that organizes regular social gatherings, educational workshops, or travel groups specifically for seniors.
There will also be a growing demand for local caregiving agencies and apps that can help middle-aged adults navigate the complexities of caregiving for their elderly parents and family members.

For corporate innovators

Construction companies can develop flexible, multi-generational housing options, such as a residential complex that combines senior living with young family units, featuring amenities like shared childcare and eldercare facilities, community dining areas, and age-friendly design elements.
Companies could partner with service providers to offer employees discounted rates for home health care, legal counseling, or elderly care technologies. For example, a corporation might subsidize the cost of smart home monitoring systems for employees caring for elderly relatives, helping them balance work and caregiving responsibilities more effectively.

For public sector innovators

Governments can redesign urban spaces to be more senior-friendly. For example, local governments could invest in creating ‘aging-in-place’ neighborhoods, which include easily accessible healthcare facilities, safe walking paths, and public transport systems suitable for the elderly.
Agencies could fund initiatives that provide direct support to individuals taking on caregiver responsibilities, including tax incentives, subsidies for caregiving expenses, training programs for caregiver skills, and public awareness campaigns to highlight the importance of caregiver well-being. For instance, a local government could establish a grant program that funds community centers offering day services for the elderly.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

Using satellite imagery, GPS data, and deep-learning, researchers found significant underreporting in global industrial fishing and vessel activities, and observed a rapid growth in offshore wind energy, mapping key changes in ocean industrialization from 2017 to 2021.
To advance in 2024, Ukraine needs a significant technological breakthrough, possibly in areas like uncrewed land vehicles, networked drone fleets, electronic warfare, or acquiring long-range missiles.
According to Talent Acquisition Trends 2024, while many professional roles will still require college degrees, recruiters will broaden their search, targeting candidates from high schools, technical, and non-traditional higher education institutions.
A recent survey of 2,778 AI researchers indicates an accelerated AI development timeline, with a 10% probability of machines surpassing human ability in all tasks by 2027 and a 50% chance by 2047.
A 2023 Gartner survey of 263 consumers revealed that 53% think social media quality has worsened, primarily due to misinformation, toxic users, and bot prevalence.

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⛏️ The hunt for rare earth minerals triggering a green mining revolution

The shift away from fossil fuels to lower-carbon technologies in response to climate change hinges significantly on access to rare earth elements (REEs), crucial for many green technologies. The demand for these elements is expected to surge, with estimates indicating a need for a three to seven-fold increase by 2040. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement’s objectives requires quadrupling the global mineral supply, while current trends predict only a doubling.

Rare earth, which are not actually rare but dispersed, are critical minerals for various applications like aircraft engines, MRI imaging, and computer hard drives. The US, with limited primary extraction capabilities, faces challenges due to China's dominance in the market (70% of global production in 2022). This has spurred interest in alternative mineral sources, including recovery from end-of-life electronics and extraction from industrial wastes like coal ash. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), recycling copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt from used batteries could meet 10% of their global demand by 2040. Meanwhile, the Worldwide Wildlife Fund projects that recycling could fulfill 20% of the total mineral demand until 2050.

Companies are experimenting with different ways to extract or recycle REEs. Startup Rivalia Chemical combines environmental benefits, such as reducing concrete's carbon footprint, with economic opportunities in former coal areas (despite the technical challenges of low concentrations and toxic contaminants). London-based Orbital Materials is using generative AI to identify green materials or formulas for batteries that don’t need REEs. Researchers, including teams at the University of Toronto, have established autonomous labs where AI and robotic systems collaborate to rapidly discover new materials.

Recent studies, such as those by Joey Nijnens and Takuma Watari, reveal that transitioning to low-carbon technologies significantly reduces overall mining needs, according to the IEA's scenarios. While ore extraction for electricity drops due to less fossil fuel reliance, material requirements for electric vehicles increase, reflecting their higher material intensity. Research from the Energy Transitions Commission predicts that by 2050, even with additional demands from technologies like grid storage, the total waste rock will be less than current fossil fuel extractions.

Actionable trend insights as innovators tackle rare earth mining