The Futures - No. 41

The age of the polycrisis / Nations compete to modernize warfare / The pivot from globalization to glocalization

Feb 06, 2024

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about how various world events are creating an intense polycrisis, militaries doing everything they can to modernize, the world economy’s shift to glocalization, and the billionaires losing money in media.

Future signals to watch

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a shift towards "glocalization," a blend of global and local economic strategies characterized by shorter supply chains, renewed focus on domestic manufacturing, and increased governmental involvement in the economy. The extent of this shift varies globally, marking a departure from traditional global free market approaches without fully embracing complete national self-reliance.
AgBio firm Demeetra is launching a new, more accurate gene-editing tool called Cas-CLOVER, along with improved cell lines, offering easier licensing and fewer unintended changes compared to existing CRISPR technology.
The US saw a 24% decrease in scripted television series released in 2023, falling to 481 from around 633 in 2021 and 2022, with predictions suggesting this decline will continue into 2024.
John Deere partners with SpaceX's Starlink to equip its farm equipment, like tractors and harvesters, with satellite internet connectivity in remote locations. This innovation is an important step toward the mass automation of agriculture harvesting.
Starting in February, Google will introduce an AI writing assistant in Chrome, the world's most popular browser.
Cancer breakthrough: Researchers, led by Baylor University, have developed a targeted tool using antimicrobial peptides delivered via probiotics, addressing the challenge of killing Helicobacter pylori, a bacteria linked to gastric cancer and resistant to traditional antibiotics.
RFID technology, which tracks tags on objects using electromagnetic waves, has roots in World War II but has recently gained popularity in retail to locate items, monitor stock levels, replenish in-store products, and facilitate digital fulfillment.
Newsrooms initially welcomed their billionaire owners, hoping their expertise could solve the profitability challenge in digital publishing. However, despite significant investments and efforts to generate new revenue, major publications like Time, The Washington Post, and the LA Times have reportedly faced substantial financial losses (and massive layoffs).

Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Despicable Me 4 // X → Dune Popcorn Bucket // Reddit → $10,000-dollar horse // TikTok → DJ + Apple Vision Pro // Instagram → Bookstagrammers // Spotify → “Beautiful Things”

💡 Watch Quantumrun’s trend videos on Linkedin & YouTube & Instagram & TikTok

💥 The growth of the polycrisis

The term "polycrisis" refers to the current global situation characterized by a complex interplay of various crises like pandemics, climate change, energy shortages, and political instability. Critics are divided over its significance; some view it as a mere repetition of historical patterns, emphasizing the resilience of established economic and social systems. Others argue it distracts from addressing the central problem of aggressive global capitalism. However, proponents say that today's challenges are distinct due to these crises' unique combination and intensity.

Key factors driving the polycrisis include a significant increase in human energy consumption since 1950, largely due to fossil fuels, which has dramatically altered Earth's energy balance and climate. This has led to severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Additionally, the human population's growth and biomass, boosted by advancements in agriculture, have drastically altered ecological balances. Increased global connectivity, facilitated by technology, has made systems more interdependent but also more vulnerable to cascading failures, as seen in recent pandemics and economic disruptions.

In the age of polycrisis, overcoming compartmentalized thinking in institutions and a broader cognitive shift are necessary. Companies must fundamentally rethink their approach to crisis management, learning, and long-term planning to guide their organizations effectively. Intentional learning is crucial, focusing on sense-making, meaning-making, and decision-making in the context of these complex challenges. Furthermore, prioritizing long-term thinking is essential, which involves making significant sacrifices today for the benefit of future generations.

Historian Adam Tooze argues that the current situation is like riding a bicycle or operating a nuclear reactor: inherently unstable and potentially dangerous, yet offering immense benefits if managed correctly. This reflects the challenges of modernity, dependent on skilled management and political coordination.

Actionable trend insights as polycrisis events multiply

For entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs may need to consider increasing their emergency savings toward six months (or more) of operating income to weather unexpected costs or world events. In some cases, they may also need to diversify or onshore their supply chains.
Entrepreneurs can develop microgrid solutions that utilize AI and IoT technologies to optimize energy distribution in local communities, especially in areas frequently affected by energy crises or extreme weather events. By integrating predictive analytics, these microgrids can efficiently manage energy resources, anticipate demand surges, and incorporate renewable sources like solar or wind power.

For corporate innovators

Corporations can invest in strategic foresight capabilities to investigate and prepare for numerous future environmental, business, and economic scenarios that may severely impact their operations. Such investments can make these organizations more resilient to change and black swan events.
In response to economic polycrisis events, financial corporations can develop AI-driven financial advisory tools that help individuals and businesses navigate complex economic landscapes. These tools can analyze large sets of economic data, including market trends, inflation rates, and employment statistics, to provide personalized money management, investment, and risk management advice.

For public sector innovators

Governments can establish 'Economic Response Units' that utilize big data analytics to identify and support industries and communities most vulnerable during economic polycrisis events. Subsequently, they can swiftly deploy targeted interventions (in some cases proactively), such as tax relief, subsidies, or training programs, to stabilize these areas.
City governments can harness augmented reality (AR) and VR technologies to engage citizens in the urban planning process that adequately addresses their needs and concerns. Furthermore, such technologies can be used in disaster preparedness training, providing realistic simulations that help citizens and emergency responders better prepare for polycrisis events like natural disasters.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

Drexel University’s research reported that self-checkouts can lower customer loyalty despite their convenience.
Menlo Ventures discusses what the modern AI stack is, also known as the building blocks of AI.
According to BCG’s C-Suite survey, 71% of leaders intend to boost their company's tech investments in 2024, up from 60% in 2023, with 85% planning to raise their expenditure on AI and GenAI.
The IMF discusses how countries should prepare their workforce for an AI-driven economy.
Most Gen Z Americans, facing financial challenges like inflation and high student debt, find it harder to buy homes compared to previous generations, resulting in 75% being renters.

🔫 Global powers race to modernize their war machines

The current trend in military technology emphasizes the integration of space communications, cyber capabilities, and information operations. The US Army Special Operations Command highlights the critical role of these elements in modern conflict, as evidenced by recent developments in Ukraine. The US military's focus is shifting towards countering potential threats from China and Russia by emphasizing the importance of rapid data access and asymmetrical tools like drones and cyber warfare.

The US Army Cyber Command stresses the significance of controlling network access and disrupting enemy information systems. The digital shift in warfare technology requires new defensive strategies, as seen in the development of systems like Anduril Industries' Roadrunner, a reusable autonomous weapon designed to counter drones. In 2023, the US announced the Replicator Initiative, where the military plans to launch thousands of autonomous weapons systems by 2025.

Meanwhile, the rise of uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs) represents a significant shift in maritime warfare, posing new challenges for nations like Australia with extensive coastlines. The growing accessibility and sophistication of these technologies have led to a reevaluation of submarine security worldwide. Nations are developing strategies and systems to counter these threats, such as the US’ Advanced Undersea Warfare System and China's Underwater Great Wall.

The evolving nature of naval warfare, increasingly characterized by autonomous systems and hybrid conflict tactics, calls for innovative defense solutions. Australia, through collaborations like the AUKUS pact and initiatives such as Autonomous Warrior, is exploring ways to balance immediate defense needs with the development of advanced maritime capabilities, recognizing the emerging challenges posed by underwater drones.

Actionable trend insights as developed nations incorporate digital and autonomous warfare