The Futures - No. 44
AI’s increasing hunger for energy / The next-level skincare industry / The return of office cubicles
In this issue
The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about the trillion-dollar investments needed to further mainstream AI adoption, the fear of aging driving the rise of personalized and subtle beauty treatments, OpenAI’s expansion into video generation, and the young workers clamoring for cubicles.
Future signals to watch
OpenAI’s text-prompt video generator, Sora, showcases the company’s expansion into more complex products and services. Sora can create intricate scenes featuring diverse characters and movements, capturing subject and background details with a deep understanding of real-world physics.
Likewise, ElevenLabs just released a complimentary AI-powered sound effect generator for these videos.
A new study suggests the critical Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, including the Gulf Stream, is already manifesting signs of collapse due to climate change, posing significant threats to global weather patterns and sea levels.
The University of Pennsylvania School of Engineering and Applied Science introduced the first Ivy League Bachelor of Science in Engineering in AI to address the growing demand for ethically minded AI engineers across various sectors.
Canon's new 'stamping' method in chip manufacturing cuts power usage by 90% compared to EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet), with the first nanoimprint lithography tools potentially shipping to customers in 2024.
Microsoft announced its ADVANTA(I)GE INDIA initiative, pledging to train 2 million workers in AI by 2025 to boost India's AI capabilities and workforce readiness.
The University of Washington launched the Thermal Earring, a wearable that can measure temperature through the earlobe, tracking fever, strain levels, and exercise.
Cubicles are making a comeback among 20- to 30-year-olds, as employees accustomed to the quiet of home find the noise in open-office environments disruptive. Younger workers—who don’t have the negative associations of older generations and value the privacy experienced during remote work—view cubicles as a practical workspace solution.
Culturally // Trending
YouTube → Borderlands // X → Zendaya’s killer Dune 2 Press Tour // Reddit → This awkward golf “lesson” // TikTok → Yassifying the office cubicle // Instagram → Nintendo’s new chill cozy game // Spotify → “Texas Hold ‘Em”
💡 Watch Quantumrun’s trend videos on Linkedin & YouTube & Instagram & TikTok
🔌 Sophisticated AI models will need trillions of infrastructure investments
The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies is becoming a significant driver of increased energy demand worldwide. The development of advanced AI agents and virtual reality (VR) interfaces is at the forefront of this surge. For example, OpenAI’s AI agents (in development as of Feb 2024) are designed to automate complex tasks, such as data gathering, itinerary creation, and flight booking, showcasing a leap towards more autonomous and proactive digital assistants.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman highlighted the need for an astounding $7 trillion investment to scale up chip production essential for powering these AI systems. This investment aims to significantly enhance the global capacity for chip manufacturing, a critical component in developing and deploying AI technologies.
The energy consumption associated with AI is not merely a future concern but a current challenge. Data centers, which house the servers powering AI applications, already account for approximately 1 to 1.5 percent of global electricity use. This figure is set to increase dramatically with the growing deployment of AI.
A study cited in Scientific American predicted that AI could lead to NVIDIA shipping 1.5 million AI server units per year by 2027. These servers, operating at full capacity, would require at least 85.4 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, exceeding the energy consumption of many countries. Furthermore, the energy-intensive nature of AI spans both the training and inference phases of AI models, requiring significant power.
The deployment of AI in immersive experiences on VR devices like Apple’s Vision Pro intensifies this energy demand. Developing more lifelike AI companions (lovers?), avatars, and genuinely interactive videogame characters, as well as AI’s application in augmented reality for work environments driving real-time meeting translations and holographic data displays, adds another layer to the energy puzzle. As AI continues to take on more complex tasks, it becomes imperative to also consider the ancillary demands, such as cooling data centers and the environmental impact of increased electricity consumption.
Actionable trend insights as more investments fuel complex AI systems
For entrepreneurs
Commercial developers and contractors can explore specializing in constructing buildings that house next-generation data centers and chip manufacturing facilities to meet society’s future demand for AI intelligence.
Entrepreneurs could explore developing more energy-efficient AI models that can run on smaller devices, as well as advanced battery technologies or developer tools/infrastructures. They could explore no- or low-code solutions to support AI software development.
For corporate innovators
Companies can invest in smart infrastructure projects designed from the ground up to support the energy demands of future AI developments.
A creative example could be constructing "AI-ready" commercial buildings with advanced cooling systems, dedicated spaces for on-site renewable energy generation (such as solar panels and wind turbines), and high-efficiency power distribution systems.
Corporations can invest in chipmakers and AI model startups to boost research and development in this area. These investments can extend to ancillary industries, such as server and cloud providers.
For public sector innovators
Governments can spearhead the development of "AI districts" designed specifically to support the needs of AI-driven businesses and research facilities. Such concentrated districts could employ cutting-edge data storage solutions and smart grid technologies to minimize their energy consumption impact.
Government agencies can leverage AI itself to optimize the planning, development, and management of renewable energy projects. For instance, AI can analyze geographical data, weather patterns, and energy consumption trends to identify optimal locations for new solar farms or wind turbines.
Trending research reports from the World Wide Web
A new study argues that Big Tech isn’t as innovative as most people think.
A deep dive into Dream Tech, the emerging industry that aims to capitalize on people’s dreams.
According to The Design Forecast 2024 report, the transition from monolithic, single-use downtowns to multi-use lifestyle districts will revitalize urban areas with a diverse mix of entertainment, retail, dining, and cultural spaces.
Under DHL’s Logistics 2050 scenario of Customized Lifestyles, personalized consumer preferences, and the desire for uniqueness will reshape industries to offer customized products, leading to an increase in regional trade and the global flow of raw materials and data, supported by decentralized energy, infrastructure, and local food production.
According to the European Space Policy Institute, by 2040, the technological landscape has evolved into a multi-polar world, with major advancements in space exploration led by the Artemis program's Lunar Gateway, China's lunar base, India’s ambitions, and private companies seeking new opportunities in space.
💅 Self-care and anti-aging drive personalized skincare
The quest for self-care and the pursuit of eternal youth has led to a remarkable transformation in the skincare and beauty industry, particularly in China. Chinese consumers, especially those born after 1990, are no longer content with focusing solely on facial skincare; their attention has expanded to include entire body care as an integral part of their self-care rituals. This shift has propelled sales of body care products to over $7.2 billion from May 2022 to April 2023, outpacing even the beauty and skincare category.
There’s also a growing interest in non-surgical aesthetic treatments, or "tweakments," focusing on subtle enhancements rather than dramatic transformations. The industry, valued at over $3.8 billion in 2023, has seen a significant uptick in demand, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, possibly influenced by workers’ increased visibility on video calls. Treatments like anti-wrinkle injections (including Botox) have gained popularity because they require minimal intervention. These treatments are celebrated for their quick results and the ability to prevent the formation of deeper lines by starting at a younger age, showcasing a shift towards preventative skincare measures.
In addition, there are "prejuvenation" treatments, which blend effective skincare routines with cutting-edge tweakments to delay the signs of aging. Treatments target various issues, from thinning skin and pigmentation to laxity and fat pad movement, to maintain a healthy complexion for as long as possible. As the industry continues to innovate, the focus is shifting toward personalized care and natural results. For instance, dermal fillers, once criticized for their overdone outcomes, are now applied to replace lost volume and lift sagging skin without changing the face's natural contours.
Actionable trend insights as consumers shift to personalized skincare and natural-looking treatments
For entrepreneurs
Entrepreneurs can launch personalized skincare apps or kiosks that utilize AI/ML to analyze users' skin conditions through uploaded selfies and questionnaires. Integrating AR technology would then allow for virtual try-ons of recommended products and tweakments. Based on the results, people can be referred to selected nearby clinics.
Entrepreneurs can also develop new entire body skincare products and brands to introduce into Western markets. Similarly, new products can be developed to care for skin after tweakments or in combination with prejuvenation treatments.
For corporate innovators
Companies can explore eco-friendly, customizable skincare products that use biodegradable packaging and refill systems. For instance, a corporation could set up a 'blend bar' in retail locations where customers can work with skincare experts to formulate their unique product and then choose a sustainable packaging option.
Corporations can develop corporate wellness programs that include skincare health as a pillar, acknowledging skin health's growing awareness and importance in overall well-being. They could collaborate with emerging C-beauty brands and wellness experts to offer employees personalized skincare consultations, treatments, and products as part of their benefits package.
For public sector innovators
Government consumer safety agencies can initiate and support research and development projects focused on the safety and efficacy of natural skincare ingredients and non-surgical aesthetic treatments. For example, a government-led initiative could result in the development of a standardized rating system for cosmetic procedures and natural skincare products, similar to nutritional labels on food.
Governments can develop public health campaigns that educate on the importance of skin health, particularly focusing on the prevention of skin-related issues (like skin cancer) through proper care and natural ingredients. Additionally, government agencies could incentivize businesses to prioritize sustainable and natural skincare solutions, encouraging industry-wide shifts towards healthier, more personalized skincare practices.
Outside curiosities
Thailand is rolling out a 90-day visa in March to boost its martial arts tourism, allowing visitors to undergo a training camp for its popular combat art, Muay Thai.
Beyoncé became the first Black woman to top Billboard’s Hot Country Songs with “Texas Hold ‘Em.”
Meta is trying to get ahead in the wearables space with a neural wristband that can be integrated with its Ray-Ban smart glasses.
Metaverse virtual world Roblox reported it paid $741 million to its creators in 2023.
Would you try KFC’s limited-edition pizza-chicken hybrid, Chizza?
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