The Futures - No. 48
The impending population collapse / Demographics influencing tourism / The first AI software engineer
In this issue
The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights on how changing demographics are influencing tourism trends, the seemingly inescapable global fertility crisis, the fully autonomous AI software engineer, and the rise of health-conscious real estate.
Future signals to watch
Cognition Labs launched Devin, an impressive AI-agent-powered software engineering tool. Devin combines advanced long-term reasoning with essential developer tools and collaborative capabilities to efficiently plan and execute complex engineering tasks, such as autonomously finding and fixing bugs.
Silicon Valley’s large funds for salaries and computing technology are making academics unable to compete in AI search.
The Royal Navy of the UK will soon equip its ships with the DragonFire LDEW, a high-energy laser system that can shoot even coin-sized targets over a kilometer away.
San Francisco-based startup Unspun aims to reduce fashion emissions and waste by producing Walmart work chinos using 3D weaving technology.
European Union lawmakers have approved the AI Act, which aims to ban specific AI uses and enhance transparency, moving closer to its implementation despite softened regulations on biometric surveillance.
Researchers at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign have developed highly stretchable sensors that can wirelessly monitor plant growth and withstand extreme conditions. This is a step towards enabling space farming.
The US Army and Marines aim to develop robot mules and other drone vehicles that can carry hundreds of pounds of infantry equipment.
“Blue Zone” real estate is gaining a large following among homebuyers. These areas are designed to encourage a healthy lifestyle similar to those in countries with the longest life expectancies.
Culturally // Trending
YouTube → The Crow // X → These mindblowing sculptures // Reddit → The question all Millennials have // TikTok → The lunchbox aesthetic // Instagram → Kitchen restock ASMR // Spotify → “Like What (Freestyle)”
🏖️ Demographic changes to redefine the future of tourism
Changes in demographic preferences and economic conditions are shaping the future of tourism. This shift is primarily driven by three demographic groups: Baby Boomers, Millennials, and blue-collar workers. Each has distinct preferences and financial capabilities that affect travel patterns.
Baby Boomers (especially those in the US), now in their 60s and early 70s, are prioritizing spending on experiences over saving for an inheritance to pass on to their children. This preference, combined with the realities of their age profile, indicates future travel activity that focuses on comfort and accessibility rather than adventurous pursuits. For instance, a growing trend is seniors "retiring" on cruise ships because it’s more affordable (and convenient) than checking into a long-term care facility.
The 2020s and 2030s will also see the Millennials transition into parenthood, altering their travel preferences towards more family-oriented experiences. Despite their known penchant for spending on personal experiences, financial constraints and childcare responsibilities are likely to shape their travel choices, favoring more budget-friendly destinations. This shift underscores the importance of destinations adapting to cater to families, providing affordable yet enriching experiences.
Meanwhile, the resurgence of manufacturing in the US is supporting the rise of financially stable blue-collar employment, creating a demographic with significant spending power but different vacation preferences from their white-collar counterparts. This group is expected to favor destinations known for their social accessibility and appeal to a broad spectrum of travelers over more luxurious or flashy vacations.
Unfortunately, this picture changes drastically outside of North America, especially in select European and Asian nations that are set to experience severe population declines over the coming two decades. As noted in the following section, rapidly aging populations will weaken economic conditions and raise safety concerns, potentially dampening enthusiasm for long-duration or international travel. This trend could lead to a greater focus on domestic and regional tourism, further emphasizing the need for destinations to adapt to the evolving preferences of these key demographic groups.
Actionable trend insights as changing demographics influence tourism:
For entrepreneurs
Local travel entrepreneurs/guides can prepare travel packages and tourism itineraries that cater to different emerging demographic profiles and feature collaborations with local businesses and activities. These services can be self-hosted or promoted on travel marketplaces.
Local businesses that cater to tourists can experiment with new product or service offerings that target emerging demographic profiles. Such offerings can then be promoted and bundled on travel sites, to niche travel agents, and to influencers.
For corporate innovators
Companies in the travel and hospitality industry can innovate by designing experience-based loyalty programs tailored to the changing demographics of travelers. A unique approach might involve partnering with local artisans, chefs, and musicians to create exclusive cultural experiences, family adventure camps or eco-friendly lodging options, and offering "stay and work" packages for those looking for leisure experiences that can be combined with work opportunities.
Corporations can explore partnerships/sponsorships with local governments and nonprofits to develop sustainable tourism initiatives that appeal to all demographic groups while benefiting local communities. For example, a firm could sponsor the restoration of a historic district or natural habitat, offering exclusive tours, workshops, or volunteer opportunities.
For public sector innovators
Governments can develop targeted infrastructure and marketing campaigns to promote domestic tourism in lesser-known regions outside of capital cities that appeal to diverse travel preferences. These initiatives could be complemented by digital marketing campaigns highlighting the unique offerings suited to each demographic, distributing tourism benefits more evenly across regions, and supporting local economies.
Government agencies can invest in smart city technologies to enhance the tourist experience in urban areas. By integrating Internet of Things (IoT) devices with mobile applications, cities can offer personalized travel guides that cater to Baby Boomers' interests and mobility needs, recommend family-friendly activities and events for Millennials, and suggest budget-friendly entertainment and dining options for blue-collar workers.
Trending research reports from the World Wide Web
The US National Intelligence’s Annual Threat Assessment report dives into potential geopolitical issues in 2024, including China taking advantage of the US political division, Iran’s increasing cyberattacks, and ongoing maritime conflicts in the South China Sea.
Law firm Ashurst’s survey found that the drive for companies to reduce their carbon footprint is predominantly internal, with the majority of G20 business leaders citing corporate boards as the main source of pressure, especially in the US, where 77% feel it is extreme or significant.
According to Eurostat, Europe's major trade unions are alarmed by the EU's industrial decline, with industrial production falling by 5.8% in November 2023 year-over-year, following a 5.4% decrease in October.
Norwegian scientists have identified over 16,000 chemicals in plastics, with at least 4,200 being harmful.
👪 Are all countries heading toward a population collapse?
Over three-quarters (155 of 204) of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain their population size by 2050, according to a recent Lancet study; this trend will increase to 97% of countries (198 of 204) by 2100. It seems that falling fertility rates globally are delaying sci-fi fears of a future burdened by overpopulation.
The issue transcends national borders, with many countries experiencing a decline in birth rates to below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. This global fertility collapse raises profound questions about humanity's future resilience and sustainability. Countries like South Korea, with a fertility rate of just 0.72, as well as China most recently, are experiencing extreme examples of this trend despite substantial government efforts to reverse it.
Likewise, a January 2024 study presented a similar depopulation forecast for numerous US cities by 2100. This trend, driven by the decline of industry, lower birth rates, and climate change impacts, foresees the population of some 15,000 US cities dwindling significantly. Regional differences highlight that the Northeast and Midwest are anticipated to be the most affected, with states like Vermont and West Virginia expecting their populations to shrink by over 80 percent.
Of note, declining populations often lead to:
A decline in the tax base and the capital markets necessary to maintain public services and infrastructure, as well as to invest in new ventures, new infrastructure, and (for the Greens) new environmental initiatives.
Falling populations also mean a smaller labor pool to maintain public services and production levels for all sorts of primary industries.
The factors above will drive inflation, slow business growth, and dampen aspects of our respective quality of life.
The factors above may generate increased social instability and drive conflict between nations that may struggle to access resources.
While declining populations and fertility rates are projected to shape the future of many nations in Europe and Asia, developing countries in the Middle East and Africa present a contrasting narrative of continued population growth. According to the United Nations Population Department, more than half of the global population’s future growth up to 2050 is expected to be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania.
Nonetheless, these economies will likely suffer a similar fertility crisis the more they develop. Already, the Philippines (a major source of healthcare and hospitality workers) saw its capital's fertility rate drop to 1.2 in 2023.
Actionable trend insights as the global fertility rate continues to decline
For entrepreneurs
Local entrepreneurs can focus on innovative fertility and family-building services tailored to an older demographic. For example, clinics and platforms that can offer cutting-edge in-vitro fertilization (IVF) and genetic screening services, and integrate nutrition, mental health support, and alternative therapies geared towards older parents.
Seasoned professionals will find plentiful consulting opportunities with businesses of all sizes needing support in implementing automation to solve their current and future workforce challenges.
For corporate innovators
Corporations can introduce more family-friendly policies, going beyond the standard parental leave. A creative approach might include building nurseries and childcare facilities inside corporate buildings (popular in the UAE). Likewise, partnerships with fertility clinics can offer subsidized fertility treatments, such as IVF or egg freezing, as part of the employee benefits package.
Companies in select industries—especially mining, construction, and agriculture—can proactively partner with robotics firms to explore automated solutions (industrial robots or humanoid robots) to address future workforce deficits, which are projected to become severe by the late 2020s into the 2030s.
Throughout the 2020s and 2030s, premiere tech firms with significant resources have an opportunity to drive significant capital into productivity-enhancing robotics and AI development programs that can one day address the future labor shortfalls described above.
For public sector innovators
Governments can further invest in fine-tuning policymaking around implementing a four-day workweek that can contribute to family formation and care.
Government agencies can incentivize higher fertility rates by developing comprehensive family support programs that address the financial, social, and practical challenges of raising children. One unique policy initiative could be the introduction of a "Family Growth Fund" for every newborn, similar to a small sovereign wealth fund, which grows over time and can be accessed by the child for education, starting a business, or purchasing a home.
Likewise, establishing or increasing government subsidies to access affordable childcare services, after-school programs, and fertility clinics can help couples across class backgrounds.
Governments can revamp education systems and labor policies to better suit a future with fewer but more highly skilled workers. An actionable strategy could involve the development of lifelong learning programs that integrate with the gig economy, offering modular, flexible learning opportunities that allow individuals to continually update their skills throughout their careers.
Outside curiosities
Spotify introduces music video support in a beta phase with a select catalog, aiming to expand to thousands of songs, starting in 11 markets.
Architectural 3D printer ICON reveals CODEX, a digital catalog featuring over sixty 3D-printable home designs, including fire- and storm-resilient features.
The top 100 generative AI apps based on web traffic, according to Andreessen Horowitz.
Are these AI-driven massage robots going to be gentler than those human elbows?
This could allow you to watch NBA games in 3D.
More from Quantumrun
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See you in The Futures,
Quantumrun
Dear Quantumrun team, great article and I like the projection on long distance travel and demographics. I grew up in Liverpool and my house was behind Strawberry Fields, which featured on one of the Beatles songs. In the late 1980's the streets would be thronged with Japanese tourists that would visit and take their photos outside the famous red gates. I subsequently lived in Japan and in my experience in connection with International travel, whilst demographics of course plays a part, a massively old population travel less, the decision to do so is more about disposable spend and in turn consumer confidence. In the countries listed above (including China), they have all reduced and I think that might be as much a factor also.