The Futures - No. 50

The four-day workweek / Large language model humanoid robots / Clamor against phone-based childhoods

Apr 09, 2024

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about four-day workweeks, humanoid robots becoming a national power move, the growing consensus around the harmful effects of smartphone-centered childhoods, and knowledge workers’ transitioning to being curators.

Future signals to watch

There’s growing pushback against children being raised on phones, pointing to increasing mental health issues. In addition, Generation Z across various countries has reported increased anxiety, depression, and self-harm.
Sora has released a collection of videos made by visual artists, designers, and filmmakers who provided feedback on how they use the tool.
Chinese scientists have reportedly created a "shrinkable" 1.5-megawatt fission reactor that could power a nuclear spaceship, potentially competing with SpaceX's Starship.
According to Berkeley Lab, the US now has 1,100 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 1,000 GW of storage on standby for energy grid interconnection.
Swiss researchers have developed an AI that can learn tasks from instructions and teach another untrained AI to perform these tasks using natural language processing.
Neurona Therapeutics' experimental treatment, involving injections of lab-made neurons, represents a potential breakthrough in applying stem-cell technology for epilepsy.
The latest bipartisan bill introduced in the US House of Representatives mandates marking AI-generated online images, videos, and audio to prevent potential misuse and deception by rapidly evolving technologies.
Knowledge workers are slowly transitioning into Curators, with decision-making accountability becoming human-exclusive. In addition, generalists, with their broad skill sets, will be increasingly sought after, whereas specialists may face early challenges in job displacement.

Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Unfrosted // X → 56th anniversary of 2001: A Space Odyssey // Reddit → Cashier-less McDonalds // TikTok → Aerogel bags // Instagram → The gamification of Hollywood // Spotify → “Like That”

🕓 The four-day workweek may soon become the norm

The shift towards a four-day workweek is gathering momentum, driven by legislative proposals and pilot programs worldwide that aim to bring back work-life balance. In March 2024, US Senator Bernie Sanders advocated reducing the standard workweek from 40 to 32 hours without reducing employee pay, challenging the work norms established since the 1940s. The rationale? An acknowledgment of the dramatic changes in economic conditions and productivity advancements over decades, suggesting that it's time to align work practices with the realities of the modern world. While salaried workers would enjoy the same annual compensation, hourly employees stand to benefit from overtime pay for work beyond 32 hours.

However, critics worry about the financial pressures on businesses, especially small enterprises operating with slim margins. They argue that mandatory overtime pay could lead employers to reduce staffing hours or lean more heavily on part-time workers to avoid additional costs, potentially worsening income inequalities rather than alleviating them. Meanwhile, sectors like healthcare, where long shifts are normal, face unique challenges in adapting to a condensed work week without compromising service quality.

Still, international examples and pilot studies offer compelling evidence of the benefits of the four-day workweek. Trials in the UK and the US have reported not only improvements in employee well-being and work-life balance but also notable business advantages. Companies participating in these pilots often saw revenue growth and productivity gains, suggesting that a shorter workweek does not necessarily mean a dip in output.

In fact, the boost in employee satisfaction and morale appears to translate into higher efficiency and innovation, hinting at a win-win scenario for both workers and employers. This trend aligns with broader historical data showing a steady decrease in working hours across industrialized nations, correlated with rising productivity and economic prosperity.

Actionable trend insights as the four-day workweek becomes the norm:

For entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs can develop modular, eco-friendly workspace solutions designed for shared workspaces and community use. On the extra day off, these spaces could transform into community hubs, event spaces for hosting educational workshops, local farmer's markets, innovation incubator spaces, etc.
Apps and businesses can explore offering opportunities to individuals who choose—by interest or for financial need—to monetize their extra day off with side work/gig opportunities.
Smaller businesses that cater to recreational activities, such as dining, sports, and various entertainment establishments, may see an increase in business as more individuals regain time to devote to personal enjoyment and personal betterment.

For corporate innovators

Companies can experiment with four-day workweek concepts within their retail operations by introducing flexible shopping hours and experiential events tailored to the new schedules of their target market. For example, a retailer could host late-night or weekday events that cater to customers enjoying a longer weekend, offering workshops, pop-up experiences, or exclusive sales that tap into the interests of their community.
Corporations and organizations in difficult-to-short sectors, like healthcare and emergency services, can explore novel automation solutions that can potentially enable employees to work shifts that are more in line with workers in other industries.

For public sector innovators

Governments can provide grants and subsidies to organizations whose employees work in condensed workweek arrangements to study and explore new work models that will allow these workers to participate in a future, national, shortened workweek initiatives.
Education departments and workforce agencies can launch targeted skill development and lifelong learning programs that fit into the newly available time slots for adults. These agencies could partner with local colleges, online education platforms, and industry professionals to offer intensive courses, workshops, and certifications that align with emerging job markets and skills in demand.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

According to Hubspot’s 2024 The State of Marketing report, Facebook remains the top social media channel for marketing, followed by Instagram and then YouTube.
Deloitte’s 2024 Digital Media Trends report shows that 30% of younger consumers think that generative AI content could be more interesting than human content.
About 84% of wealth and asset managers are already investing or have plans to invest in generative AI, according to EY.
According to Bain & Company’s Global Private Equity report, generative AI-based software and tools can potentially expedite 47% of tasks performed by US knowledge workers.

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🤖 The race to build the best LLM humanoid robots

The race to develop the most advanced large language model (LLM) powered humanoid robots is increasingly marked by fierce competition between leading global companies and nations. This contest demonstrates a broader pursuit for high technology dominance, reflecting geopolitical ambitions and the quest for economic supremacy. As rivals China and the US vie to become the dominant player in this field, other countries are close behind, each contributing their unique strengths and strategic investments.

Funding for humanoid robot developers

The human-robot form is ideal since our built world was designed around the human form. Economically, the ability to mass-produce advanced humanoid robots could redefine labor markets and manufacturing processes, potentially leading to significant transformations in job structures and the nature of work itself. The goal is to give robots a generalized understanding and adaptability, allowing them to perform various activities in dynamic, unpredictable settings (not just repetitive tasks in controlled environments like factories). This LLM robot trend is also particularly crucial since falling global fertility rates in developed nations have resulted in an emerging human labor shortage crisis that more intelligent robots could potentially address.

Moreover, this LLM robot race highlights the critical role of innovation ecosystems, where collaboration between governments, private sector entities, and research institutions can accelerate advancements in robotics and AI. For example, projects like NVIDIA's Project GR00T aim to create foundational models that could revolutionize how humanoid robots learn and operate, emphasizing the importance of foundational research and development. Meanwhile, startup Physical Intelligence (backed by OpenAI) is developing universal AI models that can be applied across various applications and physical devices.

Actionable trend insights as countries and companies build advanced humanoid robots