The Futures - No. 58

The future city clusters / AI-discovered drugs in clinical trials / Church startups

Jun 04, 2024

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about city clusters addressing rapid urbanization, AI-discovered drugs succeeding in clinical trials, the business of starting churches, and militant groups using AI news anchors to boost propaganda.

Future signals to watch

The rise of high-growth business strategies within non-denominational churches is becoming increasingly influential, driven by entrepreneurial church-planting organizations. Networks like the Association of Related Churches (ARC) and Acts 29 provide funding, training, and strategic support, enabling the annual launch of hundreds of new congregations globally.
Australian National University researchers have developed a novel desalination method that significantly reduces energy consumption by around 80% while avoiding many of the drawbacks of traditional techniques.
South Korea's government debt is increasing rapidly, projected to surpass the country's annual GDP within 20 years due to sluggish tax revenues, low birth rates, and rising social security expenditures.
University of Texas at Dallas researchers created a wireless technology that can recharge drones in flight.
Ukraine launched a fundraising platform to generate funds for warfare robotic systems, including combat, logistics, and medical evacuation.
EcoFlow's $200 PowerStream box enhances the year-round utility of solar generators by allowing easy installation as a plug-in "balcony solar system,” even for renters.
Aeromine Technologies is developing bladeless wind energy units that produce 50% more energy than rooftop solar at the same cost and require only 10% of the space.
The Islamic State (ISIS)'s media operations, known for high-quality recruitment videos, now use AI to produce content cheaply and efficiently. This capability allows them and other militant groups like al-Qaeda to quickly create and disseminate disinformation and propaganda, including AI news anchors.

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Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Martin Scorsese’s Chanel ad // X → Cannes’ 3 Best Actresses // Reddit → Norway’s “retouched” label // TikTok → The Parade of Planets 2024 // Instagram → This aquarium designed to be undersea // Spotify → “One of Wun”

🏙️ The rise of city clusters

City clusters, or megalopolises, are densely populated regions that integrate economically, ecologically, and politically. In China, this strategy has become pivotal to managing rapid urbanization. The country is developing massive city clusters, each potentially housing up to 100 million people, to enhance regional collaboration and address urban challenges like overpopulation and pollution.

For instance, the Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta benefit from top universities and high-speed rail connections, promoting seamless public services and environmental collaboration. By 2035, these clusters are projected to generate half of China's GDP and support its ambitious carbon neutrality goals by 2060.

China’s city clusters by 2035

Globally, city clusters have proven their value in fostering economic efficiency and sustainable growth. Historical examples include the Boston-Washington corridor in the US and Japan's Taiheiyo Belt, which have demonstrated the benefits of coordinated regional efforts.

Modern initiatives further illustrate this potential. India's 100 Smart Cities initiative, with projects like Gurugram's climate-neutral smart city, and Japan's Fukuoka's emphasis on infrastructure and start-ups, highlight the economic and innovation advantages of such clusters. These clusters attract talent, promote entrepreneurship, and support high-tech industries, creating a conducive environment for economic growth and innovation.

The concept of city clusters also addresses the need for sustainable urban planning. Case studies from Barcelona (Spain), Boston (US), and Curitiba (Brazil) show how geographic concentrations of interconnected firms and organizations can drive urban development through creativity and innovation. These clusters operate under a "live-work" paradigm, which attracts and inspires innovators.

Moreover, US scientists found that cities form interconnected groups in response to environmental stressors like extreme heat and air pollution. This clustering, driven by environmental similarities, demonstrates that cities are interconnected complex systems rather than isolated entities.

Actionable trend insights as more city clusters develop globally:

For entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs can tap into the dense networks of innovation found in city clusters. With top universities, research institutions, and a concentration of high-tech industries, clusters provide a fertile ground for startups. Initiatives like Japan’s Fukuoka and India's 100 Smart Cities can offer inspiration and models.
Given the emphasis on sustainability, there's a growing market for green technologies and eco-friendly solutions. Entrepreneurs should focus on developing products and services that align with the environmental goals of these clusters.
- For example, creating eco-friendly logistics solutions tailored for city clusters, focusing on last-mile delivery using electric bikes and drones.

For corporate innovators

Companies can form advanced public-private partnerships with universities and research institutions inside these city clusters to drive innovation. This includes establishing R&D centers that leverage the regional talent pool and technological advancements.
These public-private partnerships can also extent into cluster specific infrastructure investments. For instance:
- Investing in transportation infrastructure, such as high-speed rail and smart logistics systems, to facilitate seamless movement of goods and people.
- Enhancing digital connectivity through robust broadband networks and data centers, supporting the growing demand for digital services.

For public sector innovators

Governments can promote smart urban planning that integrates transportation, housing, and green spaces. This includes learning from successful models like Barcelona and Curitiba to create livable, sustainable environments.
Create policies that span federal, state, and municipal governments to encourage the development of city clusters, including tax incentives for businesses, streamlined regulatory processes, and support for public-private partnerships. These policies could complement urban sustainability and resilience goals.
They can support the development of smart city technologies by creating open data platforms that allow private companies and researchers to access urban data. This can foster innovation in traffic management, energy efficiency, and public safety.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

Politico takes a deep dive into how autonomous weapons in warfare are becoming the next Oppenheimer moment.
AI company Anthropic is looking under the hood of large language models to crack the mysteries of artificial neural networks.
According to BCG, mastering technologies like AI and robotics, along with tech literacy, data-driven decision making, AI-enhanced creativity, and ease with human-machine collaboration, will be a critical skill set in the next 50 years of work.
A report commissioned by IBM showed that approximately 42% of large enterprises (over 1,000 employees) are currently using AI in their operations.
According to Nielsen’s 2024 Annual Marketing Report, two-thirds of media budgets are allocated to digital channels, with significant growth in CTV (connected TV), search, and retail media.

🧫 AI-discovered drugs are passing clinical trials

Artificial intelligence (AI)-discovered drugs have been making significant strides in clinical trials. Over the past five years, there has been a notable increase in the number of drugs and vaccines identified through AI.

These AI-discovered molecules have demonstrated a remarkable success rate of 80-90% in Phase I clinical trials, which is significantly higher than the historical industry average of around 40-60%. This trend suggests that AI algorithms are proficient at generating or identifying molecules with promising drug-like properties. For instance, AlphaFold 3, an AI model developed by Google DeepMind, has shown unprecedented accuracy in predicting protein structures, further enhancing drug discovery efforts.

Number of AI-discovered molecules in clinical trials, 2014--2023

As AI continues to optimize the drug discovery process, it promises to significantly reduce the time and cost associated with bringing new drugs to market. For example, AI-powered platforms like the Hierarchical Interaction Network (HINT) have demonstrated potential in predicting clinical trial outcomes based on specific drug molecules and patient eligibility criteria. Additionally, the integration of AI in patient recruitment and data analysis during clinical trials has streamlined the process, making it more efficient and less prone to human error.

This efficiency also improves the likelihood of regulatory approval. The Food and Drug Administration relies heavily on precise data to guarantee that new therapeutic treatments are safe and effective for humans. Pharmaceutical companies must submit comprehensive documented data, and AI significantly aids in obtaining accurate data during clinical trials. Recognizing the importance of precision, the FDA has introduced flexibility in its risk-based regulatory framework, allowing researchers to use advanced technologies for data prediction.

Actionable trend insights as more AI-discovered drugs pass clinical trials: