The Futures - No. 60

The AI-human workforce / The cost of wars is rising / Drone police force spreading

Jun 18, 2024

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about the rise of the AI-human workforce, the price of countries pouring money on defense programs, the drones policing entire cities, and ChatGPT’s enterprise commercialization.

Future signals to watch

The Chula Vista Police Department in California uses drones for surveillance and rapid response, particularly in poorer neighborhoods where the drones are deployed more frequently. Despite public support for the drone program, critics argue it disproportionately impacts low-income communities and raises significant privacy issues.
Researchers have identified a major driver of inflammatory bowel disease and other immune disorders, opening up potential treatments using existing drugs.
Marine scientists have discovered a fungus capable of breaking down plastic waste in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, specifically targeting UV-exposed polyethylene.
Microsoft's AI model, Aurora, aims to address the limitations of current weather-prediction models by extracting valuable insights from vast amounts of atmospheric data, enhancing our ability to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.
Apple is exploring personal robotics, including a mobile robot and an advanced table-top device, as potential new ventures (after Apple Car was shelved).
ZeroMark, a US-based defense startup, aims to equip frontline soldiers' rifles with aim-assistance technology to improve their accuracy in shooting down drones using sensors and actuators for precise targeting.
PwC will become OpenAI’s largest customer, covering 100,000 users, and its first partner for selling enterprise offerings to other businesses. OpenAI's enterprise tier, launched in August 2023, offers faster, unlimited interactions, customizable models, and advanced analytics tools.

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Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Alien: Romulus // X → The startups that Apple Intelligence is about to kill // Reddit → The 80s nightclubs // TikTok → Dr Pepper’s interesting “recipes” // Instagram → Working at Ikea Roblox // Spotify → “Pink Skies”

War is becoming very expensive

In past centuries, it was not uncommon to see the military budgets take up between 40 to 80% of national budgets. However, as the era of all-out wars began to recede from memory, replaced by globalization over the past half-decade, so too have the military budgets of most nations. This shift led to dramatic increases in infrastructure spending, increases in quality of life measures from social services, as well as more of the workforce freed to pursue work that is more beneficial to the domestic economy. However, this relative era of peace is beginning to fray.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global military expenditure reached a record high of $2.4 billion in 2023, marking the largest annual rise in government spending on arms in over a decade. This 6.8% increase from the previous year is the steepest since 2009, with significant contributions from major spenders like the US and China, who together account for nearly half of global military expenditures.

Other countries have also dramatically increased their defense budgets in response to rising global tensions and conflicts. For instance, Germany, which had long lagged in defense spending, announced a special defense fund of 100 billion euros following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This move aims to bolster its military capabilities and fulfill NATO commitments of spending 2% of GDP on defense by 2024. Similarly, Russia's military expenditure surged by 24% in 2023, reflecting the country's ongoing conflict with Ukraine and broader geopolitical ambitions.

This spending spree is not isolated to Europe; Israel's military budget grew by 24% due to its war in Gaza, and India's defense spending has risen by 4.2% amid escalating tensions with China and Pakistan. Likewise, countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo saw a 105% increase in military spending due to prolonged conflicts with non-state armed groups.

The US spent 9.4% more on "research, development, testing, and evaluation" in 2023 compared to the previous year, aiming to maintain its technological edge in defense capabilities.

The financial burden of these expenditures often leads to difficult trade-offs, as funds allocated to defense could otherwise support vital public services such as healthcare and education. As nations continue to prioritize military strength amidst a volatile geopolitical landscape, the long-term sustainability of such high levels of spending remains a critical concern.

Actionable trend insights as the costs of war continues to surge:

For public sector innovators

Defense agencies can pursue deeper research and funding collaborations with domestic technology and manufacturing corporations to better integrate them into national defense networks and prepare for future potential conflicts.
Governments can invest in advanced cybersecurity training programs and establish partnerships with leading tech companies to boost national defense in a cost-effective manner. For instance, setting up cyber defense academies in collaboration with universities and tech giants like Microsoft or Google can create a pipeline of skilled cybersecurity professionals. These initiatives can help protect critical infrastructure from cyber threats, reducing the need for expensive physical military equipment and operations.
They can invest in research and development of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and ground robots equipped with advanced AI and sensor technologies. These systems can be used for border surveillance, disaster response, and even peacekeeping missions, providing a cost-effective alternative to manned operations.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

Wired discusses how the Pirate Party, inspired by The Pirate Bay, is attempting to leverage its digital expertise and progressive ideals to gain political power in the European elections and reshape internet governance.
According to Deloitte, the US real estate industry faces a significant retirement wave, with nearly 40% of its professionals, including 59% of senior leaders, expected to retire in the next decade.
Based on Axios’ estimates, increasing on-screen representation of Asian Americans could translate to an additional $2 billion annually, potentially rising to $4-8 billion by 2060, driven by the growing demand for diverse content.
Despite former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick's skepticism, startups like Swaayatt Robots believe India's chaotic roads are ideal for developing autonomous vehicles, as demonstrated by a video of their self-driving car navigating unpredictable traffic conditions.
Global investment in clean energy technology and infrastructure is expected to reach $2 trillion in 2024, doubling the amount invested in fossil fuels, according to the International Energy Agency.

🤝 The emerging AI-human workforce

The AI-human workforce involves integrating AI "colleagues” into existing human job roles and deploying AI vendors to automate entire workflows. For example, Cognition Lab launched their AI software engineer, Devin (which works alongside human engineers), to automate routine coding tasks and suggest improvements. Similarly, AI-powered customer service agents handle customer inquiries, process orders, and provide support via phone or chat 24/7. This is particularly a boon for small and midsized companies that don’t have the budget to expand their headcount.

According to recent estimates, US businesses spend roughly $5 trillion on knowledge workforces compared to about $230 billion on B2B SaaS. This massive gap highlights the potential for AI to massively reduce labor costs and boost efficiency.

As AI begins to handle both the organization and execution of tasks, the line between labor and software will further blur, opening up new market opportunities and driving margin expansions. For example, NVIDIA and Hippocratic.ai are developing AI healthcare agents that assist human nurses by conducting patient interviews and health assessments to help address some of the burdens caused by the healthcare sector’s ongoing labor shortage.

Startups are poised to benefit immensely from this transition due to their ability to specialize and swiftly integrate AI into various business models. In addition, the fields where AI's cost-cutting capabilities and added value particularly shine is legal services and education. For example, AI tutors like those from Khan Academy offer personalized learning experiences at a fraction of the cost of human tutors, providing instant, tailored teaching outside traditional classrooms. To assist teachers in the US, Khan Academy has partnered with Microsoft to provide free AI assistants. Meanwhile, AI can extend the careers of physical laborers by reducing the strain associated with their tasks through exoskeletons.

Actionable trend insights as the AI-human workforce becomes the norm:

For entrepreneurs

Engineering-focused entrepreneurs can develop AI-powered exoskeletons and wearable devices tailored for industries involving heavy manual labor, such as construction, manufacturing, and warehousing.
- They can partner with ergonomic experts and AI developers to create a product line of smart exoskeletons that not only support physical tasks but also collect data to improve overall workplace safety.
Smaller entrepreneurs operating in white-collar services must invest in generative AI subscriptions for their employees to stay competitive.
Software-focused entrepreneurs can create workforce management platforms that leverage AI to optimize shift scheduling, workload distribution, and predictive maintenance. This platform can be particularly beneficial for industries with fluctuating labor demands, such as agriculture and event management.

For corporate innovators

Companies can invest in new workforce and workplace studies that aim to identify repetitive or process-oriented work that has recently become more automatable. The study results can then be applied as a foundation for various business cases to invest in experimental AI and robotic solutions that can free up workforce resources for higher-value tasks.
Likewise, most corporations must invest in comprehensive AI strategies must be invested in that align with overall business objectives; this includes identifying areas where AI and robotics can enhance productivity, reduce costs, and drive innovation. They can also invest in R&D to stay ahead of the competition and create proprietary AI and robotic solutions tailored to their industry’s needs.

For public sector innovators

Public-facing government agencies (such as those that process identity cards and driver licenses) can take the lead in experimenting with new automation solutions that can serve as an innovation test bed for other government agencies to adopt.
Education agencies can integrate AI and digital literacy into school curricula to prepare future generations for the AI-driven job market. For example, they can fund professional development programs to reskill and upskill the current workforce in AI-related fields. Investing in national digital infrastructure, such as high-speed internet and cloud computing capabilities, to support AI development and deployment is also crucial.
Federal governments can develop a regulatory framework that promotes AI innovation while protecting worker rights. They may need to provide clear compliance guidelines for businesses using AI and robotics, detailing expectations and requirements for ethical and safe AI deployment. For example, they can conduct public consultations to gather input from various stakeholders, including businesses, academics, and civil society, to shape AI policies.

Outside curiosities

Sony Pictures Entertainment CEO Tony Vinciquerra hints that the next "Spider-Verse" film may feature AI-driven animation.
This YouTube content creator is now facing 10 years in prison for a fireworks stunt.
Disney is throwing money and advanced technology into its Disneyland expansions and new theme parks, including a Frozen park in Paris.
Younger shoe designers are moving on from sneakers to leather shoes.
Instagram is piloting unskippable ads.