The Futures - No. 69

The rise of Homeland Economics / UK’s wind ambitions / Isolating memory loss cells

Aug 20, 2024

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about governments focusing on global resilience, the UK’s goal to be the Saudi Arabia of wind energy, researchers identifying cells that protect against memory loss, and the group of supercomputers poised to outsmart humans.

Future signals to watch

MIT researchers created a method to find groups of genes that change in different brain regions and cell types in Alzheimer's disease and found a specific gene program in brain cells that helps protect against memory loss. Their research provides a detailed map of the aging brain and insights into how brain cells respond to Alzheimer’s disease.
China is projected to have nearly double as many pets as young children by 2030.
The Carbon Removal Standards Initiative (CRSI) was launched to develop standards for CO2 removal efforts, amid growing tech investments in carbon removal despite concerns about its commercial viability.
Researchers from Tokyo University of Science developed a new double-helix structure that can switch its shape by changing solvents, which can result in more targeted and efficient products in medicine, food, and agriculture.
Amazon has expanded same-day delivery to over 120 US metro areas by opening smaller delivery centers near rural locations and partnering with local businesses and contracted drivers.
Oxford University scientists developed a new method to generate solar electricity by coating everyday objects with a power-generating material, eliminating the need for silicon-based solar panels.
Researchers from the University of Houston developed nasal sprays for broad-spectrum respiratory virus protection and comprehensive coronavirus defense.
The Hispanic population in the US increased by 3.2 million from the pandemic's start to mid-2023, accounting for 91% of the country's total population growth.
Scientists aim to accelerate the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) through a global network of supercomputers, starting with the first machine coming online in September 2024. This network, built by SingularityNET, will host and train advanced AI systems to potentially surpass human intelligence across multiple disciplines.

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Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Snow White // X → Grok 2.0’s image generation // Reddit → Hello Breakdance, Goodbye Breakdance // TikTok → Demure Fall // Instagram → Air Jordan 🤝 Swarovski // Spotify → “Guess”

💪 Governments focus on strong local economies to be globally resilient

Global resilience (or, as coined by The Economist, homeland economics) is the art of turning economic risks into a national security strategy, blending defense tactics with dollar signs. This trend emerged as a response to multiple shocks, such as the 2007-09 financial crisis, geopolitical tensions between the US and China, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Leading governments around the world are now focused on building domestic capabilities in critical industries such as semiconductors and green energy. For instance, the U.S. implemented the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, with the latter directing over $1.3 trillion toward clean energy investments since 2020. Similarly, the European Union has launched the Green Deal Industrial Plan and a semiconductor initiative to bolster its manufacturing base.

Homeland economics also extends to enhancing resilience against natural disasters and cyber threats, reflecting a broader understanding of what constitutes national security. Governments at all levels are investing heavily in infrastructure to withstand climate-related disruptions and ensure the continuity of essential services. They are seeking to protect both their economies and communities from a wide range of disruptions.

For example, the US committed over $500 billion to climate resilience through legislation like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Similarly, cities like Hoboken, New Jersey, have successfully mitigated flood risks by reconstructing sewers and redesigning streets, a response that paid off when a 2023 storm caused minimal disruption compared to the devastation of Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

However, while global resilience aims to create a safer and more self-reliant world, its success is far from guaranteed. The push for domestic production and self-sufficiency could lead to inefficiencies and higher costs, as nations divert resources toward subsidies and protectionist measures. Research by the International Monetary Fund suggests that a fragmented global economy, split into competing blocs, could reduce global GDP by over 5%, echoing the economic fallout seen in the wake of Brexit.

Actionable trend insights as more countries implement homeland economics:

For entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs can participate in localized production hubs for strategic materials and technologies that are essential for high-tech manufacturing. In doing so, they can take advantage of federal and state/provincial grants and subsidies to supply goods domestically, reducing their respective country’s dependence on global supply chains. For instance:
- Establishing micro-refineries or processing plants that use advanced extraction and recycling technologies for rare earth elements or critical minerals .
- Building manufacturing facilities for critical parts that feed into the high value products produced by domestic semiconductor or aerospace industries.

For corporate innovators

Companies can design dual-use manufacturing facilities that can pivot between civilian and military production, aligning with the focus on national security.
- For example, a company that manufactures commercial drones could design their production lines to be easily reconfigured to produce military-grade drones in times of national need.

Resilient supply chain networks can be established specifically designed for domestic manufacturers that are vulnerable to global disruptions. These networks could offer subscription-based access to a pool of vetted, domestic suppliers across various industries, ensuring that SMEs have reliable and diversified sources for their raw materials and components.

For public sector innovators

Governments can establish strategic reserves of critical resources like semiconductors, medical supplies, or rare minerals, ensuring that the country is prepared for future supply chain disruptions. They can collaborate with private companies to maintain and rotate stockpiles, ensuring freshness and relevance.
State/provincial governments can create specialized economic zones focused on producing goods and services that enhance regional resilience.
- For instance, a coastal city could develop a zone dedicated to advanced water management technologies, including desalination and flood defense systems, to protect against climate-induced water shortages and rising sea levels.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

MIT researchers discuss why users need to be protected from addictive AI companionship.
SiliconAngle compares the AI and dotcom booms.
Deloitte discusses how affective computing can make public services better.
Research showed that Chinese workers face increased workloads and stress from AI tools, leading to longer hours and more intense work to meet both human and algorithmic performance expectations.
Total UK TV and video consumption rose in 2023, largely due to the growth of online platforms like YouTube and broadcasters' own services like iPlayer and ITVX.

🇬🇧 Is the UK set to become the Saudi Arabia of wind energy?

The UK's bid to become the "Saudi Arabia of wind" is a bold gambit in the global energy game, turning the North Sea into the crown jewel of its renewable empire. This initiative is part of the country’s broader goal to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with plans to quadruple its offshore wind capacity to 40 GW by 2030.

The North Sea's strong and consistent winds, coupled with the UK’s existing maritime infrastructure, make it an ideal hub for wind energy production. Key infrastructure projects include:

The Dogger Bank Wind Farm that has the potential to power millions of homes annually.
The Eastern Green Link—the longest undersea power cable in Great Britain—carrying green power 300 miles from wind farms in northeast Scotland to northern England, enough renewable power for two million residences.

This transition is not just about environmental sustainability but also about cementing the UK’s energy independence and economic resilience in a world that’s transitioning to renewable energy sources.

Wind energy production in the UK, 2000-2022 (in gigawatt hours)

Energy security is a critical component of the UK’s wind energy strategy, particularly in light of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which exposed the risks of reliance on foreign energy supplies. However, the UK has potential issues related to supply chain dependencies, particularly on China, which dominates the global wind farm component market. Additionally, the complexity of integrating wind power into the national grid and ensuring cross-border energy cooperation in the post-Brexit era adds layers of difficulty.

Meanwhile, Labour’s proposal to create a state-owned energy company, Great British Energy, reflects a strategic shift towards more state involvement in the renewable energy sector (see Homeland Economics above). Currently, the country relies on private and foreign investments. While instrumental in the initial growth of the sector, these investments may not be as effective in achieving rapid and equitable energy transformation. As the UK progresses toward its goal of becoming a global wind energy powerhouse, it would need to navigate these political, economic, and technological challenges.

Actionable trend insights as the UK dominates the wind energy sector: