The Futures - No. 70

Europe’s industrial military complex / AI accurately predicting the weather / The AI Scientist

Artist: Quantumrun via DALL-E

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about Europe building out its industrial military complex, AI models outperforming traditional weather forecasting, the super accurate brain-computer interface, and the AI Scientist writing publishable papers.

---

Future signals to watch 

• Researchers at UC Davis Health developed a brain-computer interface that translates brain signals into speech with up to 97% accuracy. This system enabled a man with ALS (amyotrophic lateral sclerosis) to communicate his thoughts within minutes of use.

• Researchers found that deploying vertical bifacial PV systems in Europe could extend solar energy production to more valuable periods, such as sunrise and sunset.

• Scientists have developed a "holy grail" insulin that responds to real-time blood sugar changes, potentially revolutionizing the treatment of type 1 diabetes.

• China's solar and wind capacity has recently surpassed coal, and solar power is projected to become the country's primary energy source by 2026.

• Deep Sky plans to build the world's first carbon removal innovation and commercialization center, Deep Sky Labs, in Alberta (Canada), which is a growing clean energy hub.

• The US National Institute for Standards and Technology has released three new encryption algorithms designed to protect against the potential threat of quantum computers rendering current encryption methods obsolete.

• Form Energy plans to build the world's largest battery installation at a former mill site in Maine (US), which can inject up to 85 MW of power into the grid.

• Researchers have developed an AI system, "The AI Scientist," capable of autonomously conducting scientific research and producing publishable papers. If validated, this advancement could lead to significant scientific breakthroughs and disrupt traditional research roles and funding.

Forward this email to a friend and help The Futures reach a wider audience :)

---

Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Kraven //  X → Olympics High Fashion //  Reddit → A Whole New World //  TikTok → Destination Dupes //  Instagram → Alien Romulus Popcorn Buckets //  Spotify → “It’s Up”

---

🪖 Europe now has its own industrial military complex

Artist: Quantumrun via DALL-E

The European Union (EU) is urgently working to strengthen its defense capabilities as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rages on. The European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) proposal was released in March 2024, a significant shift from emergency response to a more permanent defense readiness. The need for this shift has become urgent as the EU may face an increasingly isolationist US government, depending on the outcome of the Trump-Harris presidential election.

Likewise, there is a recognition that current European military stockpiles are insufficient should the EU ever enter into a prolonged high-intensity conflict (e.g., with Russia). As of 2024, Britain has only around 150 operational tanks, and Germany's army has enough ammunition for only a few days of battle. This alarming situation prompted the European Commission (EC) to propose the European Defence Industry Program (EDIP). The program aims to enhance the EU’s defense industrial base by increasing production capacity and ensuring a steady supply of military equipment.

Source: European Union External Action

The EC's plan includes significant financial investments, such as a proposed €100 billion fund to boost the European defense industry. However, only €1.5 billion has been earmarked so far, highlighting the challenge of securing adequate funding across member states. 

Additionally, the EU's approach encourages joint procurement among member states to make spending more effective and reduce reliance on non-European suppliers. Currently, 78% of European defense spending goes to companies outside the bloc, primarily the US.

The success of EDIS and EDIP depends on overcoming long-standing issues, such as national sovereignty and the coordination of defense policies across EU member states. Given that many European militaries rely heavily on US-made weapons, ensuring interoperability with NATO systems is also challenging. 

Actionable trend insights as EU builds its industrial military complex:

For public sector innovators

• EU governments can partner with domestic defense contractors to repurpose military-grade materials and technologies for civilian infrastructure projects. They could incentivize these partnerships through tax credits or grants, encouraging the dual use of defense innovations in civilian projects. 

  • For example, materials developed for military vehicles, such as advanced composites or ballistic-grade steel, could be adapted to construct more resilient public buildings, bridges, or transit systems. 

• EU government agencies could collaborate to create cross-border emergency response networks that leverage the logistical and technological advancements in military readiness. 

  • For instance, government agencies could form alliances that utilize the supply chain and communication technologies developed for military purposes to improve disaster response capabilities. 

---

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

• MIT released a database of known AI risks categorized by cause and domain.

• According to a Bain survey, over 60% of respondent companies consider generative AI a top priority for the next two years, yet only around 35% have a clear strategy for leveraging it to create business value.

• Several companies are developing earbuds to be the next identity verification tool.

• Decades of research show microgravity affects the body, but we're only beginning to understand the health impacts of space radiation from solar flares and galactic cosmic rays when leaving Earth's protective bubble.

• Bloomberg discusses why locking up products in US retail stores is backfiring.

---

⛈️  AI models can make more accurate weather predictions

Artist: Quantumrun via DALL-E

Artificial intelligence is rewriting the weather forecast playbook, with models like NeuralGCM and GraphCast making predictions more accurate. These models combine conventional physics-based techniques with AI's ability to process vast datasets quickly and efficiently. For example, Google DeepMind’s GraphCast can predict weather up to 10 days in advance in less than a minute on a desktop computer, a task that typically takes supercomputers hours. 

This trend is driven by the need for faster and more accurate forecasts, especially as extreme weather events become the norm. According to scientists at Google DeepMind, GraphCast outperforms 90% of current weather prediction systems across 1,380 metrics, making it a more energy-efficient and cost-effective solution compared to traditional methods.

AI is increasingly used in weather forecasting because it can identify patterns in historical data that traditional numerical models might miss. For instance, NeuralGCM, a model developed by Google, MIT, and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, can produce forecasts for three to five days with the same accuracy as existing models. 

It also excels at predicting less common phenomena like tropical cyclones. Integrating AI with conventional weather prediction methods enables more precise and timely forecasts, which are crucial for agriculture, insurance, and disaster management. 

How NeuralGCM works

Source: Google Research

AI-driven models are expected to play a critical role in long-term climate predictions, which are vital for understanding the impacts of climate change. For example, the NeuralGCM model’s ability to generalize in unprecedented weather conditions could provide valuable insights into future climate scenarios, helping mitigate the effects of climate-related disasters. Additionally, industries like commodities trading and agriculture stand to benefit from high-resolution predictions that are currently too expensive to produce using traditional methods. 

Actionable trend insights as AI makes accurate weather forecasts:

For entrepreneurs

• Agricultural entrepreneurs can create AI-integrated irrigation systems that optimize water usage based on hyper-localized weather predictions. This technology could be sold as a subscription-based service to small and medium-sized farms, offering an affordable way to leverage AI-driven precision agriculture without requiring significant upfront investment.

• Energy sector entrepreneurs could develop platforms that use AI-generated weather forecasts to optimize the maintenance schedules of solar panels, wind turbines, and other renewable energy assets. By predicting weather conditions like high winds or intense sunlight, these platforms can recommend the best times for maintenance or temporary shutdowns, reducing wear and tear and extending the lifespan of equipment.

For corporate innovators

• Manufacturing and retail companies can invest in AI-powered supply chain management systems that adjust inventory levels and logistics routes based on predictive weather models. 

  • For example, a company could reroute shipments or adjust production schedules in anticipation of severe weather disruptions, minimizing delays and reducing costs.

• Construction and real estate companies could develop and market smart building materials that respond to forecasted weather conditions. These materials could include temperature-regulating walls or roofs that adjust their thermal properties based on upcoming weather patterns, or flood-resistant foundations that strengthen in anticipation of heavy rains. 

For public sector innovators

• Governments can deploy AI-driven weather forecasting models to enhance emergency preparedness and response networks. These systems could automate the activation of evacuation plans, optimize the deployment of emergency personnel, and even trigger early warnings for the public in areas prone to natural disasters like hurricanes or wildfires. 

• Public sector agencies could collaborate with local farmers to create climate-adaptive agricultural programs powered by AI forecasts. These programs could include initiatives that distribute seeds, fertilizers, and other resources tailored to upcoming weather conditions, helping farmers maximize yields while adapting to climate variability. 

---

Outside curiosities

• The new luxury clubs are high-end credit card lounges.

• The 2024 Paris Olympics was the first streaming Olympics, and it worked for NBC.

• Max and DoorDash team up to make a stream-and-eat subscription.

• Actors can now rent out their voices.

• India’s biggest airline, IndiGo, is now offering a new policy where women can choose not to sit next to men.

---

More from Quantumrun

• Read more daily trend reporting on Quantumrun.com

• Subscribe to the Quantumrun Trends Platform (free for premium newsletter subscribers).

• Corporate readers can review our Trend Intelligence Platform

• Email us at contact@quantumrun.com with questions or feedback.

Finally, share your thoughts in the Substack comments below. We love hearing from you!

Interested in collaborating with the Quantumrun Foresight team? Learn more about us here.

See you in The Futures,

Quantumrun

“Weather modeling” | Artist: Quantumrun via DALL-E