The Futures - No. 71

Mega canals as a power move / Managing shrinking populations / Rent a companion

Sep 03, 2024

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about countries building mega canals to boost their economies, policies that manage instead of reverse declining populations, Indonesia’s rent-a-companion service, and the first mRNA cancer vaccine trial rolling out in the UK.

Future signals to watch

In Indonesia, renting a companion for various activities, such as talking until one falls asleep, shopping, or hanging out, has become popular. People also hire companions to attend formal events, like graduations or weddings, to avoid awkward questions about being single.
Platforms like TalentFinder use hidden algorithms to rate workers, allowing companies to control them without transparency or explanation, reflecting a shift in how businesses manage and categorize people.
Researchers at MIT CSAIL developed an AI assistant that coordinates teams of humans and AI to improve teamwork, particularly in areas like search-and-rescue, medical procedures, and strategy games. (Project managers, watch out!)
A University of Pittsburgh team is using mRNA technology to repair damaged organs such as livers, potentially offering an alternative to transplants.
State-owned Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology is about to launch satellites for a new internet network that will compete with SpaceX's Starlink.
Dynamic pricing, driven by technologies like electronic shelf labels, is growing in retail despite consumer concerns, as stores like Walmart adopt these tools to boost efficiency and cut costs.
China approved a record 11 new nuclear reactors to increase its atomic energy output and reduce emissions.
Janusz Racz, a 67-year-old lung cancer patient in the UK, is the first to receive a new mRNA-based cancer vaccine in a global clinical trial. BioNTech developed the vaccine, BNT116, which boosts the immune system to target and fight cancer cells.

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Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Sonic the Hedgehog 3 // X → The new book covers // Reddit → Camping hazard // TikTok → Corpcore // Instagram → Lego 🤝 Nike // Spotify → “Die With A Smile”

🛳️ Mega Canals: The next economic power move

Building massive canals is becoming a strategic move to boost trade and slash shipping costs. For instance:

China’s Pinglu Canal, stretching 135 km, aims to link the Xijiang River with the Beibu Gulf, cutting transport distances by over 500 km.
In Europe, the Danube-Oder-Elbe proposed canal, with a total cost of €23 billion, seeks to connect major rivers to the sea. It is expected to cut transportation expenses for landlocked countries like Czechia, where shipping costs make up 40-60% of the price of imported goods.

The push to build these canals is fueled by the desire for better trade routes, lower costs, and greater geopolitical influence. China is using the Pinglu Canal to jumpstart its economy after the COVID-19 pandemic slowdowns, with local governments investing in large-scale projects to spur growth.

In Europe, the canals aim to link rivers to create seamless trade routes between the Black Sea, Baltic Sea, and North Sea, simplifying the movement of goods across the continent. This ambition echoes the historical significance of the Suez Canal and is a pivot toward enhancing regional connectivity.

However, these grand plans come with significant challenges and concerns. Supporters argue that the canals could boost local economies by speeding up trade, potentially increasing GDP. Yet, critics raise environmental problems, such as the potential harm to protected mangrove areas in China and the risks to biodiversity in Europe.

The high costs and political debates also add complexity, with some questioning whether these projects are worth the investment. As these ambitious canals are built, they will test nations’ ability to balance economic growth with environmental protection.

Actionable trend insights as countries build mega canals:

For corporate innovators

Logistics and transportation companies can develop canal-optimized cargo ships designed for the specific dimensions and conditions of new canals. These ships could feature advanced automation for more efficient loading and unloading processes and innovative designs to minimize drag and fuel consumption in shallow or narrow waters.
Companies can form strategic partnerships with local suppliers, engineering firms, and governments to establish exclusive contracts for the supply of goods and services required during and after canal construction.
- For instance, a corporation specializing in construction materials could collaborate with local authorities to provide sustainable resources for building new infrastructure, such as bridges and ports.

For public sector innovators

Governments can invest in infrastructure projects that complement new canals by focusing on water management and environmental protection.
- For example, local governments could build state-of-the-art water treatment facilities and sediment control systems to manage water quality and prevent sediment buildup in canals.
They could capitalize on new canals by launching initiatives to turn their regions into major trade and transportation hubs. This could involve creating special economic zones (SEZs) near canal entry and exit points, offering tax incentives and reduced tariffs to attract international businesses and logistics companies.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

According to Deloitte, many large US banks are creating their own investment funds, but the competitiveness of these funds varies greatly due to current fundraising challenges.
The number of Africans moving to Britain as care workers nearly tripled in 2023 due to relaxed visa rules, highlighting the growing reliance on African migrants to support the aging population.
A study by the University of California Riverside suggests the Salton Sea area (California, USA) could hold large reserves of lithium, essential for battery production.
AI's ability to advance fusion energy technology by accurately modeling ultrahot plasma could prove to be its most impactful application.
The Global Foodbanking Network's latest report shows that in 2023, its food banks provided 1.7 billion meals to over 40 million people and reduced 1.8 million metric tons of CO2 by recovering surplus food.

🧑‍🧑‍🧒‍🧒 Should countries focus on managing, not reversing, shrinking populations?

Japan and South Korea are both grappling with significant population decline, but their approaches haven’t had much success. South Korea has the lowest fertility rate globally at 0.72, way below the replacement level of 2.1 needed for a stable population. Meanwhile, Japan’s fertility rate dropped further in 2023 to 1.2.

South Korea has invested over $286 billion in social programs to encourage childbirth in the past 20 years, but these efforts have not reversed the declining trend. Japan has focused on policies to support an aging population and boost productivity growth. For instance, Japan has implemented labor reforms to encourage more women and older adults to work.

Both countries are also looking to urban planning as a solution. South Korea has developed Sejong, a new city designed to promote a family-friendly environment with affordable housing, green spaces, and family amenities. This city has a higher birth rate of 0.97 compared to Seoul's 0.55.

Japan, meanwhile, is focusing on revitalizing existing cities and regions by boosting tech hubs and incentives for businesses to invest in less populated areas. These efforts aim to make these regions more attractive to all workers.

Experts are advocating for managing population decline rather than trying to reverse it completely. They argue that a shrinking population is not a failure but a challenge that can be managed with the right strategies. Cities can still thrive with fewer people if there is cooperation between public and private sectors to boost development.

Examples from Japan and the US show that investments like supporting healthcare and education can help counter the effects of a declining population. These efforts suggest that instead of only increasing birth rates, governments should focus on building sustainable communities even as populations shrink.

Actionable trend insights as countries focus on managing and not reversing population declines:

For entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs can create specialized home modification services tailored to the needs of an aging population. A business could provide a comprehensive service package that includes consulting, design, and installation of these features.
- For example, a company could offer modular home modification kits that include stairlifts, adjustable countertops, and motion-sensor lighting.
With population declines, many regions face a cultural and historical preservation challenge. Entrepreneurs could capitalize on this trend by creating travel experiences that allow visitors to engage in cultural revival activities.
- For instance, a business could organize immersive "heritage revival" tours, including hands-on experiences like learning traditional crafts, participating in local festivals, or helping restore historic landmarks.