The Futures - No. 73

The potential AMOC collapse / Jobs under the green economy / Remote-controlled surgery

Sep 17, 2024

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about the potential impacts of an AMOC collapse, the workers needed for the green transition, surgeons remotely operating on a pig, and the UK’s first teacher-less classroom.

Future signals to watch

Swiss surgeons successfully performed a remote endoscopy on a pig in Hong Kong using a video game controller, demonstrating the potential for remote surgeries in areas lacking local expertise. The procedure used a robotic system and magnetic endoscope, with real-time data transfer between Zurich and Hong Kong.
President Joe Biden unveiled $7.3 billion in funding for 16 rural clean energy projects led by rural electric cooperatives under the Empowering Rural America (New ERA) program.
China’s shift toward electric vehicles may cause domestic gasoline demand to peak either this year or next, according to Vitol Group's CEO.
Ford is seeking a patent for technology that would customize in-car advertising by analyzing conversations, location history, and other data from vehicle occupants.
Chandrayaan-3 has detected over 250 seismic signals from the Moon's south pole, including 50 possibly linked to moonquakes, marking the first seismic data collection from this region since the Apollo missions.
The EU, US, and UK, among other nations, signed the first international legally binding treaty on AI risks, focusing on human rights, democracy, and rule of law, according to the Council of Europe.
Wind power just became Britain’s largest source of electricity, generating 32% of the country's energy in 2023, surpassing gas-fired power stations at 31%.
David Game College in London is launching the UK's first "teacherless" GCSE class, where 20 students will learn using AI platforms and virtual reality. The AI adapts lessons to each student's strengths and weaknesses, providing personalized learning plans for more precise and continuous evaluation.

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Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Mr McMahon // X → When a new iPhone is announced // Reddit →The twist we didn’t see coming // TikTok → Eating an entire cucumber // Instagram → Aesthetic Airport Trays // Spotify → “Crazy”

🌊 How imminent is the AMOC ocean current collapse?

The potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has scientists on edge, as it threatens to throw global weather patterns and climate stability into a tailspin. The AMOC includes the Gulf Stream and helps regulate Earth’s climate by circulating warm and cold water across the Atlantic. It has shown signs of slowing by about 15% since the mid-20th century, according to a 2021 study.

This slowdown is worrying because the AMOC’s collapse would have far-reaching consequences, including a significant temperature drop in Northern Europe and shifts in tropical rainfall. For example, Tromsø in Norway could experience temperatures 35°C lower in winter than it currently does.

One reason for the AMOC’s weakening is the increased influx of freshwater from Greenland’s melting ice sheets, which disrupts the delicate balance of temperature and salinity that powers the circulation. This freshwater prevents denser, saltier water from sinking and continuing the conveyor belt-like current.

A collapse, which might occur between 2025 and 2095, could cause droughts in the Sahel region and other parts of West Africa, where precipitation patterns are linked to AMOC variability. Historically, the AMOC may have collapsed around 14,500 years ago, coinciding with rapid climate shifts during the end of the last Ice Age.

Beyond colder winters in Europe, scientists predict the effects of a collapsed AMOC to include a rise in sea levels along the US East Coast and crop failures due to a 50% reduction in land suitable for agriculture in Europe. Changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone could lead to unpredictable rainfall patterns, devastating regions that rely on monsoons for their water supply. For instance, India and West Africa might experience drastic decreases in rainfall, severely affecting food production and economic stability. Given the uncertainties surrounding the exact timing, scientists urge immediate reductions of global emissions to mitigate the risks.

Actionable trend insights as the AMOC threatens to collapse:

For public sector innovators

Governments in vulnerable regions can fund research and development into climate-resilient crops to mitigate the risk of food insecurity from an AMOC collapse. This includes:
- Public-sector partnerships with agricultural tech firms and universities that can create new seed varieties engineered to thrive in colder, drier conditions expected from a weakened AMOC.
- Incentivizing local farmers to transition to drought-tolerant crops like sorghum and millet through subsidies or low-interest loans, creating a robust domestic agricultural sector that can better withstand extreme climate shifts.
As political instability and mass migration are likely consequences of an AMOC collapse, governments can start preparing now by establishing proactive migration frameworks and building cross-border infrastructure. This includes:
- Creating regional climate migration agreements that provide structured, humane relocation plans for those displaced by extreme weather could help alleviate social strain.
- Investing in the construction of “climate-smart” cities with adaptable housing, sustainable energy systems, and efficient transportation networks will ensure that migrant populations can integrate smoothly.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

This is how scientists use Frontier, the fastest supercomputer in the world.
A new study suggests consciousness may be linked to quantum processes, as drug interactions with microtubules delayed unconsciousness in anesthetized rats, supporting the quantum theory of consciousness.
Here’s a fascinating dive into how piracy has made DIY medicines more accessible.
New research shows that four in ten children in Central London switched from car travel to walking, cycling, or public transport after introducing the Ultra-Low Emission Zone.
New research shows that remote echocardiograms using a 5G network are as accurate as those performed in person by cardiologists.

👷 The future of work under the green transition

The green transition is set to shake up the global workforce as it shifts talent from polluting "brown" industries to the growing "green" sectors of the future. According to 2023 research, many workers in brown jobs already possess the skills to transition to green jobs, but those in highly automatable jobs face greater barriers due to the specialized nature of green skills.

For example, occupations with tasks heavily focused on compliance, science, or green technology usage are growing, but not all workers can shift into these roles without targeted reskilling efforts. This creates challenges for countries like those in Southern and Eastern Europe, which are behind in developing the necessary green skillsets compared to Northern Europe.

Green employment share

In addition to regional differences, the future of work will see the rise of green sectors that demand a more specialized workforce. Denmark's green transition plan, aimed at reducing CO2 emissions by 70% by 2030, exemplifies the potential for job creation. Reports from the United Federation of Danish Workers suggest that 380,000 jobs—most of them temporary—could be created in the next 30 years through projects like offshore wind farms and bio-refineries. However, this transformation will require an estimated €37.5 billion in investments.

Despite these opportunities, many companies are still struggling to find workers with the skills to implement their environmental, social, and governance plans. A study found that 94% of companies lack the talent needed to achieve their green goals. This has led to initiatives focused on reskilling, such as those that train workers in renewable energy technologies and hydrogen fuel production. Without such targeted reskilling programs, workers in traditional industries risk being left behind.

Actionable trend insights as workers transition to a green economy:

For entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs can develop mobile training units that travel to industrial hubs and rural areas to provide hands-on, modular courses for workers transitioning from brown to green jobs. These units could focus on teaching skills like solar panel installation, green building practices, or managing energy-efficient agricultural techniques.
With many traditional construction workers needing to transition into green industries, there’s an opportunity to develop novel work tools specific to green tech, alongside sustainable, high-performance building materials specifically designed for green infrastructure.

For corporate innovators

Companies can form specialized task forces focused on upskilling current employees to handle the shift to greener technologies and practices.
- For instance, automotive companies transitioning to electric vehicles can create task forces dedicated to retraining assembly line workers in battery technology or electric motor assembly.
Manufacturing, logistics, and construction companies could partner with community colleges and technical schools to offer fast-tracked certification programs in green skills like renewable energy project management or sustainable manufacturing processes. In return for providing funding and resources, corporations can secure exclusive access to newly skilled graduates and ensure that training programs align with their specific operational needs.