The Futures - No. 74

The growing Earth Observation industry / AI changing middle management / Work shifts based on sleep

Sep 24, 2024

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about the Earth Observation industry's growing potential, AI redefining middle managers' roles, work shifts based on sleeping patterns, and Walmart rolling out electronic labels.

Future signals to watch

"Chrono-working," a new concept allowing employees to set work hours based on their natural sleep patterns, is being trialed in the UK and could reshape the global workforce. This approach could create a "borderless economy," ensuring constant availability for clients regardless of time zones.
Defense contractor Anduril unveiled Barracuda, a family of expendable, autonomous air vehicles focused on low-cost precision munitions, with growing interest from the US military for use across various platforms.
Researchers have developed a 'structural battery' that integrates energy storage into a device's or EV's chassis, potentially reducing weight and boosting EV range by 70%.
EUROfusion is launching 15 new research projects across Europe to apply AI and machine learning to develop fusion energy—using vast experimental data to accelerate breakthroughs in safe, sustainable, low-carbon power.
The US military is investing in reusable re-entry capsules from space startups to enhance cargo transportation and logistics, with Inversion Space and Outpost Space securing over $100 million in defense and private funding.
China is advancing humanoid robot development with cheaper, innovative parts, with companies like Wisson Technology (Shenzhen) exploring alternatives like pneumatic artificial muscles and 3D-printed plastics.
SpaceX completed its first private spacewalk, Polaris Dawn, which included a billionaire and his crew.
Walmart plans to replace traditional paper price tags with electronic shelf labels (ESLs) in 2,300 stores by 2026, following a trend already popular in Europe. However, there are increasing concerns that this could pave the way for widespread adoption of dynamic pricing.

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Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Venom: The Last Dance // X → Moo Deng // Reddit → Alligator versus Crocodile // TikTok → Autumn Aesthetic // Instagram → Polaris Dawn Launch // Spotify → “The Emptiness Machine”

🌎 Earth Observation is becoming a trillion-dollar industry

The Earth observation (EO) industry is becoming a key player in the global economy, with the potential to add trillions of dollars by the end of this decade. According to a study by the World Economic Forum and Deloitte, EO data could create USD $700 billion in value by 2030, with a total contribution of $3.8 trillion to global GDP from 2023 to 2030.

Beyond its economic potential, EO plays a big role in tracking and lowering greenhouse gas emissions, offering a way to cut more than two billion tons of carbon dioxide annually. This fast-growing field touches many industries, like farming, utilities, and public services, all of which gain from the real-time environmental data shared by satellites and sensors.

One of the main reasons for the EO industry's growth is its growing dependence on government funding, especially in defense and climate-related projects. Gabe Dominocielo, co-founder of spacetech company Umbra, points out that half of the current EO market is fueled by the US government.

However, the business side of EO is more unpredictable, limited by broader economic problems. Companies within the industry, like Planet and BlackSky, have shifted their focus to making a profit, with Planet bringing in USD $220.7 million in 2023 (a 15% yearly growth). Yet, even with this progress, the demand for EO services in business stays low, leading to tough competition among startups for special capabilities like high-resolution imaging and climate tracking.

Other challenges to EO’s widespread adoption include confusing standards, a shortage of skilled workers, and low awareness of EO's business uses. However, several open-source groups and industry partnerships have already made progress by setting up shared data standards, which could make EO data easier to use and apply.

Actionable trend insights as the EO industry continues to grow:

For entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs can create physical sensors and smart farming tools that leverage EO data to offer farmers real-time insights into localized weather patterns and soil conditions.
- For example, they could design drone-assisted devices that combine satellite data with on-site microclimate sensors to optimize irrigation and pesticide use per field.
They can build a business model to provide EO-derived data tailored to urban planning and infrastructure development. This could include offering satellite imagery that maps ground stability, flood zones, and vegetation growth to help construction companies make more informed decisions on where and how to build.

For corporate innovators

Logistics or manufacturing companies can develop new products that use EO data to monitor global supply chains, particularly identifying potential disruptions caused by natural disasters, climate change, or geopolitical tensions. By partnering with satellite providers, a company could offer near real-time maps showing shipping routes, ports, and production facilities impacted by floods, earthquakes, or other events.
Financial services or insurance firms can use EO data to develop parametric insurance products that automatically trigger payouts based on environmental events such as hurricanes, droughts, or wildfires.
- For example, the insurance firm could use EO satellite data to monitor rainfall levels or wind speeds in real-time, offering clients faster payouts when predefined thresholds are met and reducing the need for long claims processes.

For public sector innovators

Governments can collaborate with neighboring countries to create joint disaster response frameworks based on EO data. By integrating EO satellite data with local infrastructure monitoring, governments can better predict and prepare for cross-border natural disasters, such as floods or wildfires, allowing for coordinated evacuations, resource sharing, and infrastructure protection.
Government agencies can create centralized data hubs that utilize EO data to monitor air quality, deforestation, and emissions for regulatory compliance. These hubs would provide industries and municipalities with accessible tools for tracking their environmental impact in real-time.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

Indeed uses OpenAI’s GPT models to personalize job recommendations, boosting job applications by 20% and improving interview and hire rates by 13%.
There are now 74 robotic companies that are actively hiring.
Hackers posing as job applicants through AI are exploiting the cybersecurity talent shortage, prompting companies to increase scrutiny during hiring.
Construction industry employment and spending are expected to accelerate, with workforce levels surpassing 8.2 million in June 2024 and spending surging by 11% over the past two years.
Space is becoming the next hotspot for medical research.

🧑‍💼 AI is delayering organizations and changing middle management

AI is changing people management by reshaping how organizations run and make decisions. One major change is the flattening of traditional structures, as AI can now handle tasks like data processing and routine decision-making that middle managers used to manage. Some companies have used AI to simplify operations, reducing the need for constant managerial supervision and increasing flexibility.

As a result, organizations are moving toward simpler structures, where decision-making is increasingly spread out, allowing for faster responses to market changes. This change is also driven by AI’s ability to finish tasks much faster, making large, multi-layered teams less necessary.

According to McKinsey, middle managers often spend nearly half their time on non-management tasks, limiting their ability to focus on coaching and team development. With AI taking over these repetitive activities, managers can now focus on more strategic tasks such as coaching, problem-solving, and encouraging innovation. This shift is positioning middle managers as integrators between human teams and AI tools rather than simply supervisors of routine operations.

As a result, delayering may reduce the overall number of middle managers, but it also empowers those who remain to focus on higher-value contributions. Instead of eliminating middle management, AI is redefining its roles and pushing organizations to reconsider how they structure leadership to be more agile, efficient, and strategically focused on long-term goals.

However, AI’s role in management will need new leadership roles and skills. There’s a growing need for AI-focused positions like Chief AI Officer (CAIO) to help organizations through the complex process of using AI. Companies may face issues like bias and misinformation in AI systems without leaders who understand AI's strengths and risks. To fully benefit from AI’s potential, leadership needs to practice AI mindfulness, handling both the technical and ethical sides of AI.

Actionable trend insights as AI streamlines people management: