The Futures - No. 76

Service-as-a-Software / DIY-pirated medicines / AI uncovering archaeological sites

Oct 08, 2024

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about how AI is completely automating entire workforces, patients pirating medicines out of frustration, a huge win for vertical farming, and AI becoming a powerful archaeological discovery tool.

Future signals to watch

The Plenty Richmond Farm will grow over four million pounds of strawberries annually in vertical towers using less than an acre of space, the first in the world to do so. The strawberries are expected to hit grocery shelves by early 2025.
Hyundai introduced its hydrogen production facilities using organic and plastic waste, aiming to lead the hydrogen industry by producing over 30,000 tons annually.
Germany's Rheinmetall and MBDA Missile Systems are collaborating to develop a laser weapon system focused on countering sea-based drone threats, aiming to offer a cost-effective missile alternative within five to six years.
The UK marked a shift to clean energy by closing its last coal power plant after 57 years of operation.
Alexandr Wang became one of the youngest self-made billionaires by building Scale AI, employing over 100,000 contractors to perform data labeling tasks that power the modern AI industry.
Researchers at energy company LONGi have developed a new tandem solar cell combining silicon and perovskite materials, achieving a record-breaking 33.89% efficiency due to enhanced sunlight capture.
The US Food and Drug Administration granted approval to Bristol Myers Squibb's new schizophrenia drug, marking it as the first novel antipsychotic medication in several decades.
Researchers at Khalifa University developed a machine learning algorithm that uses synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to detect hidden archaeological sites beneath desert sand. This technique overcomes challenges posed by traditional ground surveys and optical satellite images in arid environments.

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Culturally // Trending

YouTube → The Last of Us Season 2 // X → This dog encounter // Reddit → This underground bathroom // TikTok → #SheDeservedThePurse // Instagram → Luxury ice bath // Spotify → “Teflon Don”

🖥️ Service-as-a-Software is creating an AI workforce

AI-powered Service-as-a-Software (SaaS) is flipping the script on how businesses run, turning traditional workflows into self-sufficient, automated powerhouses. Traditionally, SaaS tools were designed to streamline specific job functions but still required human intervention. Now, AI is enabling software to autonomously handle entire workflows, blending the labor and software markets into a unified space. For example, robotaxis are continuing to exhibit massive developments, including Waymo recording more than 100,000 autonomous rides per week.

This shift to completely automated workflows can result in significant cost savings, considering that businesses in the US spend around $5 trillion on knowledge workers, compared to only $230 billion on SaaS platforms. This transition is not only expanding markets but also shrinking the margin gap between human-centric services and software companies. Historically, service businesses had margins below 30%, while SaaS companies often enjoyed margins above 80%.

With AI now handling tasks traditionally done by people, service margins are increasingly resembling software margins. This shift is already visible in fields like healthcare, where AI-driven services such as Hippocratic.ai’s AI nurses assist in patient care, helping alleviate labor shortages. Similar impacts are expected in construction and manufacturing, where AI will likely replace repetitive and labor-intensive roles.

While some roles will disappear, AI could spur a “Jevons paradox,” where increased efficiency ultimately drives higher demand for services, thus creating more opportunities for human workers. This paradox is likely to affect not only knowledge-intensive roles but also manual tasks as AI crosses over into physical industries. The rise of service-as-a-software also poses a competitive threat to existing SaaS incumbents, as AI-driven solutions may render certain software tools obsolete, paving the way for new startups to dominate.

Actionable trend insights as AI-driven SaaS matures:

For entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs can develop AI-driven SaaS platforms that offer fully automated legal services for small businesses and startups. Instead of relying on traditional law firms, these platforms could automate workflows like contract drafting, compliance monitoring, and intellectual property management.
They could create a SaaS platform that automates financial auditing workflows for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The AI platform could scan through accounting records, detect anomalies, and even flag potential regulatory issues.

For corporate innovators

Pharmaceuticals or materials science companies can use AI-driven SaaS to analyze experimental data, run simulations, and even propose new research directions.
- For example, in drug discovery, an AI SaaS tool could automatically design and test virtual compounds, significantly reducing the time and cost of bringing new medications to market.
They could implement AI-driven SaaS platforms to fully automate the creation, execution, and optimization of marketing campaigns.
- For example, an AI platform could manage personalized email campaigns, targeting different audience segments with tailored messages while adjusting the strategy based on performance metrics.

For public sector innovators

Governments could automate entire workflows for public healthcare systems, such as processing medical claims. The platform would analyze claims for accuracy, verify coverage, and ensure compliance with healthcare regulations.
They can deploy AI-powered SaaS to automate workflows for maintaining infrastructure like roads, bridges, and public utilities. AI platforms could analyze real-time data from sensors embedded in infrastructure to predict when maintenance is required, autonomously dispatching repair crews before issues become severe.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

Financial Times discusses why no one wants to openly admit they’re using Ozempic.
Globally, younger and fully remote employees experience higher rates of loneliness, with 25% of remote workers reporting frequent loneliness compared to 16% of on-site workers.
The Sentinel Intelligence discusses how the commercial real estate apocalypse is pressuring CEOs to mandate a return to office.
Most business executives and leaders are focused on growth, with 64% prioritizing international expansion and over half aiming to expand operations in existing markets.
The percentage of adults who regularly get their news from TikTok has surged from 3% in 2020 to 17% in 2024, a nearly fivefold increase in just four years.

💊 Frustration driving the popularity of pirated, DIY medicines

Pirated and DIY medicines have gained significant traction as patients increasingly look for alternative solutions to high-priced pharmaceuticals and long wait times. This trend first gained momentum during the COVID-19 pandemic when hospitals were overwhelmed, prompting many to seek ways to take medical care into their own hands. According to ECG Management Consultants, the average wait time for medical appointments in the US has ballooned to 38 days across 11 major cities, compared to a pre-pandemic average of 14 days.

Online forums, particularly on platforms like Reddit, have become hubs for patients to exchange information on creating homemade versions of expensive drugs, such as weight-loss medications or the abortion pill misoprostol. However, many of these homemade drugs are created with little to no regulation, leading to potential inaccuracies in dosage or harmful side effects. For example, Michael Snyder, Medical Director of the Rose Medical Center, warns that attempts to break open auto-injectors of GLP-1 drugs for weight loss and repackage them can lead to dangerous outcomes if sterile environments and proper dosing are not maintained.

A concerning development is the rise of online communities that teach users to synthesize complex drugs like hepatitis C treatments at a fraction of their market price. For example, the Four Thieves Vinegar Collective offers instructions to create DIY versions of medications such as sofosbuvir (Sovaldi), which normally costs $1,000 per pill, but can reportedly be made for less than $1. While cheaper alternatives provide relief to some, the lack of professional oversight increases the risk of complications or even death, as noted by the American Medical Association.

Nonetheless, the DIY medicine movement could reshape healthcare access and pharmaceutical pricing if it continues to grow. Anecdotes, such as that of patients crafting their own Epipens or seeking open-source artificial pancreas systems, point to a future where patients may rely more heavily on DIY solutions for chronic conditions.

Actionable trend insights as DIY and pirated medicines become common: