The Futures - No. 80

GLP-1, the miracle drug / Australia's giant battery revolution / The robot construction workers

Nov 05, 2024

In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about how GLP-1 drugs could be a pivotal breakthrough, Australia heavily investing in giant batteries, NASA fast-tracking Mars missions, and the world’s first road built by autonomous machines.

Future signals to watch

NASA aims to send crewed missions to Mars, with nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) technology potentially cutting the journey time in half compared to chemical rockets. In collaboration with DARPA, NASA plans to demonstrate a prototype NTP system in space by 2027, marking a significant step toward faster Mars missions.
The US FAA has introduced "power-lift" aircraft as a new category, enabling regulation for eVTOL air taxis and cargo drones capable of vertical take-off and low-speed flight.
Researchers have applied the concept of movable type to DNA data storage, potentially accelerating data encoding and making long-term information archiving more cost-effective.
The Cobb County Sheriff’s Office has deployed DEKA Sentry Robots for perimeter patrols and security checks in its jail, marking the first use of such robots in a US jail, with a 90-day pilot program to evaluate their effectiveness.
Biologists at USC have found that mifepristone, a drug primarily used to end early pregnancies and treat specific diseases, could potentially extend lifespan, opening new avenues for anti-aging treatments.
UC Berkeley scientists have developed a yellow powder capable of capturing as much carbon as a large tree annually, with potential for thousands of use cycles in large-scale air-capture plants.
Ioneer received federal approval to develop the Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Project, set to boost US critical mineral production and supply materials for 370,000 EV batteries annually starting in 2028.
China completed its first road using fully “automated” construction practices—a 98-mile section of the Beijing-Hong Kong Expressway. Led by three state-owned companies, the project showcases automated road-building technologies, including ten autonomous machines for paving and drones for topographical assessments.

Forward this email to a friend and help The Futures reach a wider audience :)

Culturally // Trending

YouTube → Cobra Kai Season 6: Part 2 // X → Gay Halloween // Reddit → Store hours // TikTok →Living Room Family // Instagram → Shanghai Fashion Week // Spotify → “Love Somebody”

💊 GLP-1 is proving to be a powerhouse drug

Originally developed to manage diabetes, GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) receptor agonists are now making headlines as multi-purpose breakthrough drugs. Notably, they address obesity effectively, a condition affecting nearly 16% of the global population, by curbing appetite and reducing food intake. A case in point is Dr. Steven Klein, an addiction medicine specialist, who experienced a dramatic reduction in his appetite upon taking Mounjaro, resulting in significant weight loss and improved control over eating.

These drugs seem to influence the brain's reward systems, reducing cravings for both food and substances, which makes them an unexpected ally in managing addiction—a promising avenue considering the 40% reduction in opioid overdose risk observed among users of these drugs.

The potential of GLP-1 drugs extends to treating neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer’s. Preliminary studies indicate that these drugs might protect neurons from damage, reducing both inflammation and protein buildup in the brain, which are hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease.

Research from Imperial College London found that a GLP-1 drug, liraglutide, slowed brain shrinkage by nearly 50% in early-stage Alzheimer’s patients, hinting at a protective effect that could delay cognitive decline. These effects make GLP-1 drugs appealing for doctors like Dr. Caroline Messer, who advocates for using them to treat mild cognitive impairment despite limited clinical data.

Meanwhile, new research suggests that semaglutide, marketed as Ozempic, may also slow the aging process. Prof. Harlan Krumholz of Yale said the drug could potentially address heart failure, arthritis, Alzheimer's, and cancer. Findings from the select trial, funded by Novo Nordisk, tracked over 17,600 individuals aged 45 or older over three years, showing promising cardiovascular benefits. The study found that obese or overweight participants with cardiovascular disease who took semaglutide had a lower mortality rate from all causes, including cardiovascular issues and Covid-19, compared to those on a placebo.

By the 2030s—as GLP-1s (and their next-gen successors) become better researched and their use more widely normalized and adopted—these drugs could reduce national healthcare expenditures, freeing up public funds for other social priorities.

Actionable trend insights as GLP-1 drugs become more commercialized:

For entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs can create personalized nutritional kits tailored to the unique dietary needs of GLP-1 users.
- For example, a subscription service could offer low-calorie, high-satiety snacks, fortified beverages, or easy-to-prepare meals that align with GLP-1 users’ changed metabolism and taste preferences.
They could create a fitness platform or studio experience tailored specifically for individuals on GLP-1 medications who are adjusting to new physical abilities and lifestyle changes. Many GLP-1 users report shifts in their energy levels, appetite, and physical resilience, creating a unique market for programs focusing on low-impact, high-satiety workouts that build strength and stamina without overexertion.

For corporate innovators

Health insurers can create tailored insurance plans focused on preventing the progression of chronic diseases in individuals using GLP-1 medications. Since GLP-1 drugs are proving effective in reducing risks related to obesity, cardiovascular health, and even addiction, insurers can offer premium discounts and preventive health packages for GLP-1 users, focusing on early intervention.
Corporations can support employees on GLP-1 medications by offering specialized health programs that address the unique nutritional, physical, and mental health needs associated with GLP-1. By launching a “GLP-1 Wellness Initiative,” companies can introduce support systems with expert nutritionists, group fitness challenges, and mental health resources, aiming to help employees maintain healthy habits and manage the lifestyle adjustments these drugs require.

For public sector innovators

Governments could create subsidies for addiction treatment centers incorporating these medications. By launching pilot programs that research and support treatment centers’ use of GLP-1, public health departments could offer training sessions for practitioners on dosage management, behavioral changes, and integration with other therapies.
Governments could pilot and design health campaigns highlighting how GLP-1 medications support obesity management and offer community programs on diet, exercise, and behavior change that complement GLP-1 benefits. This could be achieved through public seminars, social media campaigns, and collaboration with health influencers to promote proactive health management and reduce the healthcare burden associated with obesity and chronic conditions.

Trending research reports from the World Wide Web

The enterprise value of AI companies has reached $9 trillion, with public markets booming for AI exposure, while private AI investments have grown more modestly, despite major GenAI funding rounds in the US.
A UN report cautions that progress and ambition have stalled since COP26 in 2021, with G20 nations projected to exceed their 2030 commitments by a combined 1 billion tonnes of carbon emissions.
Indeed's assessment of over 2,800 work skills found none "very likely" to be replaced by GenAI, with 68.7% rated "very unlikely" or "unlikely" to be automated and 28.5% potentially replaceable as tools and business practices evolve.
According to Waymo, their robotaxis had 72% fewer injury-causing crashes than human drivers.
Recruitment processes are rapidly evolving as AI tools like ChatGPT outperform most human candidates in verbal reasoning, situational judgment, and personality assessments.

⚡ Giant batteries are Australia’s power play

Australia is charging into the future as a global heavyweight in massive battery projects, ditching coal and betting big on high-voltage storage solutions.

Enervest signed a deal with Swiss company Energy Vault in 2024 to construct the 1,000 MWh Stoney Creek battery in New South Wales, marking just one of many in Enervest's ambitious portfolio, which includes projects across South Australia, Victoria, and Queensland. This trend is partly due to coal closures, such as in Collie, Western Australia, where Neoen’s 2,240 MWh Collie Battery is under construction at the site of a former coal plant.

The Australian government is backing these projects to ease the energy transition by funding 6 GW of renewable capacity under its Capacity Investment Scheme.

See the map below. Green is operational, yellow is under construction, and red is in planning. The width of each rectangle is scaled to the battery's power capacity in MW, and the height is scaled to the battery's energy storage capacity in MWh (e.g., a battery with a 1h duration would be a square).

Battery installations in Australia are growing rapidly to address challenges like solar power variability and evening energy demands. Neoen has integrated its Collie Battery with the local grid to store excess daytime solar output and release it during evening peaks, supporting the region’s energy needs as coal plants close. This approach mirrors trends in the US, where California and Texas use batteries to stabilize energy prices, reflecting Australia’s 18.5 GW target for storage capacity by 2035. Energy storage projects are becoming financially viable due to declining costs; in 2023, battery prices dropped by 50%, making co-locating batteries with renewables attractive.

As these batteries increase in size and duration—from just an hour to four or even eight hours—they provide opportunities for energy trading, known as arbitrage. With wholesale prices on Australia’s east coast falling below zero at times, large batteries can store electricity when it’s cheap and sell it during peak demand, a complex but lucrative model.

Such developments signal a long-term shift in Australia’s energy strategy, with battery storage emerging as a practical solution for supporting grid stability. This substantial shift may redefine Australia’s energy future, especially as coal exits the energy mix by 2038.

Actionable trend insights as Australia heavily invests in giant batteries: