The Futures - No. 12

From Quantumrun

Jul 04, 2023

TLDR: In this issue

The Quantumrun team shares actionable trend insights about youth struggling to find their impossible “dream job,” the Google AI search engine’s threat to journalism, digital nomadism falling into decline, and the mismatch between podcasting and celebrities.

Source: Conde Nast Traveler / Artist: Dan Matutina

Future signals to watch

Tesla’s compute capacity will reach 100 exaflops by October 2024, setting the company up to be one of the largest AI training firms in the world.
A study by the American Lung Association demonstrates that if the US accelerates its shift towards electric vehicles and a clean energy grid, air pollutants will be reduced by more than 50 percent by 2030 compared to 2020 levels.
An IBM benchmark experiment showed that quantum computers could outperform classical computers at doing everyday tasks within the next two years.
Amazon is not competing with others to build a new Chat GPT; instead, it is offering a marketplace for all kinds of AI models.
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the first gene therapy to treat Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) in children.
Virgin Galactic is set to initiate its inaugural commercial space tourism voyages by the end of June.
Digital nomadism may be losing its appeal as nomads find themselves grappling with mental health and inflated housing markets.

Having the “dream job” is more unlikely than ever

For over two decades, researchers have been asking teenagers worldwide about their future job expectations. The responses, ranging from doctors to athletes, provide insights into how young generations perceive their future. In 2000, the top job choice was a medical doctor, with other professions like decorator and military officer also mentioned. However, the reality often diverges from these expectations. For instance, while 11 percent of girls and 5 percent of boys aspired to be doctors, less than 0.5 percent of the working-age population in the surveyed countries are doctors today.

In 2018, the survey was repeated with a larger group, and the top choices remained consistent. However, the percentage of undecided kids increased from 14 percent in 2000 to 25 percent in 2018. This indecision is concerning because research shows that early career ambitions significantly influence professional outcomes and future planning, including a college education.

Misalignment, where teenagers' job expectations don't match their educational or experience plans, can lead to unemployment or underemployment. For example, Australian teenagers who were underemployed have increased from 3.4 percent in 1978 to 20 percent in 2019. Globally, automation also threatens the desired jobs of teenagers, according to the OECD. For example, in Japan and the Slovak Republic, nearly 50 percent of the jobs that young people aspire to could be threatened by automation.

As technology rapidly alters the nature of work and makes the jobs of the future harder to envision, it becomes harder for youth today to set clear goals and dreams for their future selves. This disadvantages these youth by potentially disincentivizing their participation in post-secondary education and other forms of skill development.

Source: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare

Actionable trend insights as the youth grapples with career confusion and uncertainty

For entrepreneurs: They can create businesses that help guide young people towards fulfilling careers, such as career coaching services, online platforms that connect students with mentors in various fields, or businesses that offer internships and work experience opportunities. They could also develop educational technology tools that help young people explore different career paths of the future and understand the skills and education required for each. Establishing diverse and flexible e-learning programs can also help young people explore their options and interests.
For corporate innovators: Companies can invest in proactive employer branding campaigns in high schools and colleges that promote their companies and industries as employers of choice for future graduates. Robust internship, trainee, and mentorship programs can also give young people the chance to explore different roles within a company. Additionally, corporations can partner with educational institutions to ensure that the skills being taught align with industry needs, helping to reduce the skills gap.
For public sector innovators: The public sector can play a crucial role by implementing policies that support career exploration in schools, such as mandatory career counseling and work experience programs. They can also invest in vocational training and apprenticeship programs that provide practical skills and direct pathways into future careers. Furthermore, the public sector can fund research into future job trends and the impact of automation, ensuring that career guidance is based on up-to-date, forward-thinking, and accurate information.

Trending research reports from the world wide web

Deloitte’s Well-Being at Work survey showed that 75 percent of workers reported a decline in their health over the previous year, yet an equal proportion of top-level executives were under the impression that it’s the other way around.
According to Ericsson’s Mobility Report, the monthly global average usage per smartphone is expected to go over 20 gigabytes by end-2023.
Young professionals in Southeast Asia are shifting to iPhone from low-cost, China-made smartphones.
PwC’s Global Entertainment & Media Outlook forecasts the industry's growth will decline over the next five years.

Google’s AI search engine threatens journalism

Google plans to use AI to transform its search engine, aiming to simplify complex information into easily digestible formats. This new feature, called the Search Generative Experience, provides short, article-style "snapshots" in response to user queries. While this seems like a natural progression for Google, it poses potential challenges for publishers who rely on Google for traffic and ad revenue.

The Search Generative Experience summarizes the news or other complex topics in response to a user's query. The sources of information are cited but hidden behind a button, making traditional search results less visible. Some categories, such as sensitive medical questions, will not be subjected to snapshots. This move towards AI-generated content could be part of a broader trend toward more intuitive search experiences.

Google appears to be venturing into content creation, automating tasks typically done by its partners, and significantly changing its unspoken agreement with publishers that has supported the digital media industry for years: Publishers create content; Google drives traffic; everyone profits from ads. While this might not directly signal the end of journalism, it certainly poses a risk to media companies trying to keep their businesses going. However, the success of this snapshot feature still depends on its effectiveness and user acceptance.

Actionable trend insights as AI-based search engines consolidate information

For entrepreneurs: They can use AI search engines to gather more in-depth market research, competitor analysis, and industry trends. The AI's ability to summarize complex information into easily digestible formats can save entrepreneurs time and provide valuable insights to inform their business decisions. They can also develop a range of AI, SEO, and multimedia solutions that support SME companies to maintain and grow their online presence in this new era of AI online search.
For corporate innovators: Understanding how Google's AI works can help companies optimize their online content accordingly. This strategy could involve using clear and concise language, structuring articles to allow for easy AI summarization, and ensuring that key points are highlighted (and branded) effectively. With traditional search results becoming less visible, website user experience becomes even more crucial, including fast load times, mobile-friendly design, easy navigation, and high-quality content. Firms can also diversify their traffic sources to reduce dependence on one platform, focusing on other search engines, social media platforms, email newsletters, and direct website visits.
For public sector innovators: Governments can use AI-powered analysis tools to monitor public sentiment on social media platforms and online forums. These tools can analyze the tone of language used in posts and comments to gauge public opinion on various issues and policies. Additionally, consolidating information from multiple sources into one centralized dashboard can provide governments with a comprehensive view of the information landscape they govern. AI search engines can gather data from various sources for research purposes, including academic articles, government reports, census data, social media posts, and more. This feature can help public agencies keep up with the latest information for policymaking.

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Outside curiosities

Impossible Foods’ new plant-based Indulgent Burger promises meat lovers that it tastes just as good and is, potentially, just as unhealthy as meat patties.
Designers imagine beautiful climate change-resilient infrastructures during a skyscraper design competition, including towers that convert seawater into rain and a mangrove park that repels tsunamis.
Hollywood is learning that podcasting and celebrities might not be a great match.
A pod of orcas bumped a boat participating in an endurance sailing race near the Strait of Gibraltar, adding to a series of increasingly assertive encounters with Iberian orcas.

Climate change is reaching a fever pitch

We've discussed climate change's far-reaching effects in our previous insights, such as an uninsurable future and worsening climate-related displacement. But now the World Meteorological Organization says we may breach the critical 1.5C threshold global temperature rise by 2027. While scientists think that this breach will only be temporary, this development drives home our severe climate emergency.

Record-breaking temperatures worldwide may just be the start, as climate change and a developing El Niño could cause global heatwaves. El Niño, part of an ongoing fluctuating weather system in the Pacific, is set to replace the cooling phase, La Niña. This transition increases the chance to 98 percent that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record.